Stats Suggest He’s an All-NBAer
Before this year, there were 101 instances where a player averaged more than 22 points, more than six rebounds, more than five assists and more than one steal in a season. In 86 of them, or 85.1 percent of the time, the player who met those minimum marks made an All-NBA team — 59 made the first team, 18 made the second team and nine made the third team.
On top of that, of the 32 total players who have recorded these numbers, dating back to when the Vols started being tracked in 1973-74, 27 have made an All-NBA team at least once (84.4%).
If this season ends with Paolo Banchero having those minimum numbers – he’s currently at 22.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists and a steal – it would only be the sixth time a player under 22 years would accomplish that.
In five of those cases, the player made an All-NBA team. These players are Michael Jordan, LeBron James (twice) and Luka Doncic (twice). The only one who didn’t make an All-NBA team while posting those stats this young was LaMelo Ball last season, but he only played in 36 games.
Several All-NBA caliber players have already been disqualified from consideration for All-NBA because they will not meet the minimum requirement of at least 65 games played. They include Joel Embiid, Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Trae Young and Kyrie Irving. Karl-Anthony Towns and Scottie Barnes may not be eligible. Barnes is out indefinitely with a fractured hand and, so far, has only played 60 games. Towns, meanwhile, who also played in 60 games, recently underwent knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee.
Right now, the only two players averaging under 20 points with a legitimate chance to make an All-NBA team are Bam Adebayo and Rudy Gobert. Adebayo is averaging 19.9 points, while Gobert is the favorite to win his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award. There are 21 players, including Banchero, averaging more than 20 points, who have appeared in more than 50 games and been named All-Star this season. Towns and Young are among them. So in total there should only be 21 legitimate candidates for the 15 spots. It’s rare that a player who wasn’t an All-Star makes an All-NBA team. The only ones this season you could make a case for are Gobert, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Victor Wembanyama and DeMar DeRozan.
The first team will likely consist of Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Doncic. We would assume that Kevin Durant, LeBron, Steph Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Jalen Brunson and Anthony Edwards are locks as well. From there, we have four places left. Of the 11 remaining All-Star players, Banchero is the only one who is, without question, the best player on a top four team in their respective conference. Most of the remaining candidates are simply hoping to avoid the play-in tournament (e.g. Devin Booker, Anthony Davis and Tyrese Maxey). The same goes for a few of those aforementioned non-All-Star players. Clearly, the San Antonio Spurs and Wembanyama are already out of playoff contention.
Being a cover should be important
In the final two minutes of regulation or overtime with a score differential less than three (ahead, behind, or tied), Banchero is tied for third most shot attempts with 27 of them. them and achieved 13 (48.2%).
There are 26 players who made at least 15 shots under these time and score circumstances. Paolo’s 48.2 percent is the fifth-best mark among them. The only players with higher percentages (among these 26 players) are DeRozan, Gilgeous-Alexander, Curry and Jokic.
Banchero also made six of his 10 shot attempts in the final 30 seconds of regulation or overtime with a score differential less than three (ahead, behind or tied). Only Curry and DeRozan took more shots under these time and score circumstances. Paolo’s 60 percent is the best mark among these three (Curry’s is 46.7 percent and DeRozan’s is 38.5 percent).
Three of Paolo’s four misses came in a game at Miami on Jan. 12 after he made two game-tying shots, and the other was a double-OT 3-point attempt at Sacramento on Jan. 3 that would have tied the game. Earlier in the match, he made a few shots under pressure to prolong the match. His wins include game-winners at Utah (November 2), Chicago (November 15), and Detroit (February 24). He also made a 3-pointer in Atlanta on Jan. 17 before Dejounte Murray hit a game-winning jumper at the buzzer.
He’s not just an offensive player
One of the biggest pre-draft mistakes in NBA history had to do with Banchero’s defense. Many said he was a weak defender coming out of Duke in 2022. That was absolutely false. This is one of the main reasons why the Magic currently have the third-best defense in the league.
There have been 21 players who have made at least 300 3-point attempts this season, according to Second Spectrum. Banchero is one of them with 313 3-point games. Opponents, in those situations, are shooting 33.8 percent against Banchero’s competition, seventh lowest among these 21 players.
Banchero often has to guard one of the opposing team’s best players. He did well in these confrontations. Just a few examples of how others have shot with him as the closest defender anywhere on the court, per Second Spectrum:
Donovan Mitchell: 3 out of 10
He is the best player on one of the best teams
The Magic are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. They have won five games in a row and 19 of their last 25 games. Since January 28, only the Boston Celtics have had a better record than the Magic.
At 42-28, it’s the first time since March 2012 that Orlando has been 14 games above .500. They are just 1 ½ games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers for third place in the East and three games behind the Milwaukee Bucks for second place.
Ultimately, everything changed when Banchero arrived in the summer of 2022. Last season, they had a 12-win jump from the previous year. They’ve already won eight more games than last year, and with 12 games remaining, they have a chance to reach 50 wins, which is pretty amazing for a young team like the Magic.
Banchero led this wave. He makes a huge impact simply by being extraordinarily versatile. He creates for himself; he creates for others; he makes mistakes; he orchestrates the offense; he’s an improved outside shooter; he handles the ball like a goalkeeper; he directs the break in transition; and he uses his blend of size and instincts to play excellent defense. There aren’t many players – past or present – who do as much as he does at 6-foot-10, 250 pounds. He has two triple-doubles this season, including one Thursday night in a victory against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Kia Center.
Teams that have an elite giant playmaker are currently thriving in the league. Last season, all four Conference Finals teams had one (Jokic, Adebayo, Tatum and LeBron). It’s no different this year. Those four, along with Antetokounmpo, Banchero and Williamson, have their teams at the top of the standings. What makes Orlando even more unique is that it has a second giant high-end point guard in Franz Wagner.
