Lakers Blueprint to Winning Built on Playing Bigger

With three quarters of the season behind them, the Lakers once again find themselves in a battle for a potential playoff bid which, based on their current positioning, would start with a spot in one of the win-or-go-home play-in games. at home. It’s a position they know well after last season’s run to the conference finals that began with similarly modest beginnings, and after a regular season that saw dramatic roster changes at the trade deadline. exchanges propel them into this final push.

This season offered neither the same type of roster shake-up nor the substantial hole to dig to climb the standings, but the circumstances of the race they now find themselves in are very similar. This final 20-game stretch of the season will once again reveal whether they can make the playoffs or whether their season will end prematurely – and that’s disappointing, considering their preseason status as team that could settle for the championship.

As the team approaches this final stretch of the season, they will need to do their best to give themselves the best chance to win each night and position themselves to make the type of run this team was built for. And after 60+ plays of games as context, there’s enough data to serve as a north star for how they should play to get where they want to go.

This is especially true when it comes to roster construction and the types of personnel groupings that have had the most success so far in the season. Namely, there is plenty of evidence that the team has been more often and consistently better when it has played bigger, particularly in the frontcourt, but also when accounting for rebounding and backcourt defense.

To put it more directly, measured by cumulative plus-minus numbers, many of the team’s most successful lineups use a combination of these six frontcourt players as the basis of the lineup: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, Christian. Wood and Jaxson Hayes. And of those not built around those players, the majority count Max Christie, whose rebounding and defense from the guard position has helped complement smaller lineups in a way that doesn’t always show up in the score via individual production. .

To put it even more clearly, there are 24 Lakers teams that have a cumulative plus-minus of +10 or more this season. Of these groups, only two of them do not fit the trend described above, either of a larger frontcourt or the presence of Christie among the players on the field:

The groups that fit the trend are varied in terms of players mixed and matched, but some commonalities exist. LeBron and Davis have positive comps with all of these players except Hayes (-5.1 net rating in 18 minutes). The formations with Davis and Hachimura work very well with Vanderbilt or Wood. And LeBron has good partnerships with Wood or Hayes as a big while being flanked by the athleticism and motor of Rui or Vanderbilt.

Below are a variety of these different groupings and how they performed in terms of net programming rating:

Overall, while not all combinations of these six players are effective when grouped together, the vast majority of them are. And when zooming out, it makes sense to understand why. At this point in their careers, LeBron and Davis are both great athletes in any given game, but they are best served if they are supported by players who can help cover them in a way that lightens their load physical when they do the “dirty work” that often comes into play. is equivalent to doing the “little things”. These things will never be completely removed as required, of course, but relying more on the actors for these things can help both players immensely.

This is true when the two are playing together, but it is especially true when they are separated when even more motor skills and athleticism can be thrown alongside them as they anchor units individually. Intrinsically, it makes sense that if you flank LeBron with Rui and one of Wood or Hayes, they can support him on the boards, in transition, as floor spacers (vertical for Hayes, outside for Wood) and defensively in painting to help those. the groups thrive as he helps orchestrate the offensive.

Just like with Davis, it makes sense that partnering with Rui and Vanderbilt (defense, cutting and transition play) or Wood would help support him in areas that allow him to deploy his skills where it’s needed most defensively while working the post offensively. . Add those frontcourt combinations with the team’s capable guards — especially now that Dinwiddie is in the fold as another ball handler and shot creator — and Davis can anchor the types of units he’s in supported on both sides of the field.

But just as it is true that there is evidence showing which frontline groups are working, the same is true when looking at the construction of lineups that haven’t performed as well this season.

The Lakers have 20 teams that have a cumulative plus-minus of -10 or worse this season. Of these groups, six are built around large frontcourts. But there are some notable distinctions in these groups that make them somewhat of outliers. First, in three of those groups, neither LeBron nor Davis are in them. And second, in one of the groups, the three “centers” of the team, Davis, Wood and Hayes, share the floor.

This leaves only two lineups with “big” front-courts that have a negative plus-minus of 10 or more. And while it’s important not to view these as outlier groups, it’s also worth noting that when looking at the construction of these groups, there is significant overlap:

These groups, while balanced, both have Prince as the shooter (not his natural position) and only two true ball handlers on the court (LeBron and an extra guard). And while it’s never easier to determine why lineups of good players fail to succeed, none of these groups have the kind of collective size, strength, or athleticism as a group that gives them natural physical benefits.

Additionally, looking at the specific stats of these two groups, neither of them shot particularly well from behind the arc (31.3% and 20.0% from three respectively), while the former group was particularly prone to turnovers (14 total in 26 minutes). and the latter group was particularly mediocre in defense (59 points allowed in just 18 minutes). It remains to be seen whether or not a unit can earn its minutes, these groups simply haven’t found the right chemistry to succeed at the level hoped for.

Beyond those lineups, however, it’s the ones not designed to play bigger that have been the biggest problem throughout the season. For example, groups that feature only two of the taller frontcourt players mentioned above, while positioning one of the Lakers’ wings as a nominal small forward, have typically struggled, whether flanking the zone starting guards for the Lakers of Russell and Reaves or even in groups that feature better defense. option at one of the other guard positions next to one of the starters:

Even the starting group that started the season (and returned later in the year) with AD, LeBron, Prince, Reaves and Russell is -10 in 231 minutes together on the court. This number is in no way crippling to the team or reflective of a group unable to win shifts, but it is the most used lineup of the season and is a negative overall.

So while these groups struggled or did just well enough to be only slightly negative, many other groups built on larger frontcourts did not struggle at all. In fact, they prospered. And while injuries, particularly those to Vanderbilt and Wood following the All-Star break, have made these groups’ play more difficult, the success of these types of units offers a model for how the The team can play, even with a group that is not in perfect health. band.

And if the Lakers want to make the jump to the playoffs like they hope, relying on those larger rosters and personnel groups that have been successful while limiting smaller groups that haven’t performed as well is a great starting point.