The Dallas Mavericks host the Golden State Warriors in a crucial Western Conference showdown Wednesday night from the American Airlines Center. Golden State enters, clinging tightly to the final playoff seed, while Dallas sits in eighth place, with just three wins ahead of them. In December, the Mavs won by ten on the road, as they aim to repeat that performance when they return to Dallas. Both teams know how important this matchup is, especially considering how close they are in the standings, making it one of Wednesday’s more interesting matchups.
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Warriors in search of spark
Just a few years removed from their NBA Finals victory, the Warriors now have their sights set on making their way to the playoffs. They sit in tenth place in the Western Conference if the season ended today, which would have them hitting the road for the first game of the play-in tournament. The Warriors were able to end a two-game skid last time out, beating San Antonio on the road to get back in the win column. A massive game against the Lakers looms, followed by hosting New York, both of which are expected to be crucial games in reaching where this team wants to be this season. A loss earlier in the season to Dallas was unexpected and there is no doubt they will look for revenge in the rematch.
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Golden State only has one injury as it heads into this one, although it’s a huge one. Steph Curry (ankle) is questionable and given that he has missed the last two games, it will be interesting to see how the Warriors choose to move forward with or without him in this one. As this team’s leading scorer and one of the faces of the league, the Warriors could be in trouble on the road without him.
The Warriors have seen their offense take a slight step back in some aspects this season but still rely heavily on the three-point shot. They are third in makes and attempts, while being tenth in three-point percentage. Shot selection has been a challenge and potentially without Curry it will be interesting to see where they find the score. They only have three double-digit scorers besides Steph and no other scorers over 20 points per game. The Mavs have the ability to score points quickly and if Golden State isn’t efficient on the defensive end, it could make them feel the pressure on the offensive end as well.
Mavs hits stride
The Mavs remain in the heart of the playoff race and their last few strong games have allowed them to regain confidence and momentum at the right time. They’ve won three in a row, including each of the last two on the road, winning both in dominant fashion. They currently sit in eighth place in the West and would love nothing more than to pick up a win against one of the teams right behind them. One concern is that Dallas hasn’t been great at home, where they actually have a worse record than on the road, something they’ll need to improve on, especially with the playoffs fast approaching. Considering Curry could be out on the other side, this is an opportunity Dallas can’t pass up.
While Golden State is dealing with a huge injury problem, Dallas is in great shape. They don’t have anyone listed on the most recent injury report and it should come as no surprise that their ability to be healthy has paralleled their recent winning streak.
Dallas is middle of the road on both ends, but they usually come away with wins when they shoot the three-point ball well. They’re second in threes made and three attempted, but if the Warriors are without Curry, that’s a three-pointer they can avoid having to match. Luka Doncic (34.6 ppg, 9.1 apg, 9.9 apg) is a nightmare in this one and he should find his way to finding shots against Golden State’s defense. Add in the emergence of Kyrie Irving (25.2 points per game), and it becomes clear that this is an offense that needs to be taken seriously across the league.
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Best bets for this game
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The Mavs will cover the spread and come away with the victory in this one, as they lean heavily on the confidence and momentum they have built over the last few games. For Golden State, Curry is questionable for this one, which would be a big blow, especially considering the lack of scoring depth this season for this group. If Curry can’t go, the Warriors won’t have the scoring needed to match Dallas, and even if he can go, he should be limited. Either way, it will be a disaster for this group. The Mavs have covered the spread four straight meetings between these two and three in a row overall, which should give them plenty of confidence covering the spread in this one.
Prediction: Dallas
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Neither team is known for its defense and that trend will continue in this matchup. The over has hit in six straight meetings between these two and even with Curry potentially out, Golden State still has an explosive scorer in Klay Thompson ready to go. The Mavs have their own mismatch to rely on in Doncic, who should be able to create any shot he wants, as well as set others up for success. Dallas has built more and more momentum and confidence over the past few weeks and against a struggling Golden State defense, they will set the tone early and often from a scoring standpoint.
Prediction: More
