Chet Holmgren has been running the show this season. We review the film and the numbers.
This article is part of a four-part series titled “What we saw“, which examines the two best candidates on the Kia rookie scale And Kia MVP Ladder. A new edition will be released over the next four weeks.
They had to wait a year, but the Oklahoma City Thunder clearly have a franchise cornerstone in Kia Rookie of the Year candidate Chet Holmgren.
The Thunder were the most improved team in the league in winning percentage and the second most improved team in point differential per 100 possessions, having seen significant improvement in offensive and defensive efficiency. And Holmgren is a big reason why. He is second on the team in minutes played and has had a positive impact on both ends of the court.
Here are some notes, numbers and films on what we’ve seen from Holmgren so far:
All statistics are valid until Wednesday March 13.
1. Superlatives
Some things we’ll remember from Holmgren’s rookie season:
Most impressive game: It seems like a long time ago, but Holmgren’s biggest night yet took place at Golden State on November 18. He put in place 36 points on 14 of 22 shotshad 10 rebounds, five assists, two steals, two blocks and two 3-pointers in 37 minutes in the Thunder’s victory.
Most impressive step: It took Holmgren just 57 games to become the first NBA player (not just a rookie) to reach thresholds 150 or more blocked shots, 150 or more assists and 100 or more 3-point shots made. This speaks to his two-way value, his inside and outside play, and his perfect fit thus far with OKC.
Most impressive game: You can almost grab something off the video board on any given night, but we’ll go with his clutch batsman in the aforementioned win over Golden State.
CHET HITS A THREE TO SEND IT OT ????
35 PTS FOR THE ROOKIE ‼️
Thunder Warriors | Live on the NBA app
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—Steve Aschburner
2. Statistics that tell a story
Look beyond Holmgren’s regular season averages – 16.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks – to understand just how good he’s been this season:
- Holmgren has a true shooting percentage of 63.6%. This classifies 11th among 139 players with at least 500 field goal attempts and would be the highest mark for a rookie with at least 500 field goal attempts in NBA history.
- He is one of six players to have played at least 500 minutes and have more blocks (161) than personal faults (158).
- He is the first rookie in the 3-point line’s 45 seasons with at least 100 3-pointers and 100 blocks.
- According to Second Spectrum tracking, the Thunder scored 1,245 points per possession when a Holmgren isolation led directly to a shot, turnover or move to the line. This is the second highest mark among 84 players with at least 100 direct isolations, behind that of teammate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (1,250).
- He defended 615 shots at the rim, second more in the league. Opponents are shooting 52.8% when he is at the rim. This classifies seventh among 71 players who defended at least 200 shots there.
3. Famous movie theater
Holmgren isn’t as freak a sight as his main contender for the title. Kia Rookie of the Year price. But he’s a special talent, a 7-footer who knows how to space the court, put the ball on the deck and protect the rim.
Here is a film showcasing Holmgren’s many skills:
His pick-and-pop game: The Thunder’s guards are forwards, led by the guy — Gilgeous-Alexander — who leads the league in drives per game for the fourth consecutive season.
So Holmgren, shooting 39% from 3-point range, is a perfect complement as a big who can screen guards and then give them space to attack.
And if his defender is in drop cover to protect the basket, he can make him pay:
Its edge finish: Holmgren doesn’t just hang out on the perimeter.
It is also a vertical threat, 72% shooting in the restricted area.
If his defender is higher with his pick-and-roll coverage, Holmgren can roll to the rim and finish with help:
His 1 on 1 attack: If defenses switch pick-and-rolls, Holmgren can take advantage of a mismatch.
He’s not yet strong enough to bury a guard or wing under the basket.
However, he has a smooth post-up game and the ability to shoot over the top:
Its rim protection: Holmgren is usually himself in drop coverage, but doesn’t necessarily concede jump shots to opposing guards.
Here, Holmgren comes out high to prevent a Fred VanVleet pull-up, comes back to prevent Alperen Sengun from rolling to the basket, then reacts to Sengun’s pass, blocking Jabari Smith Jr. at the rim.
Impressive:
Its commutability: Holmgren hasn’t changed many ball screens, but he has the mobility to stay in front of a perimeter player after a change.
This could certainly benefit the Thunder in the playoffs:
4. Closing of the Kia Rookie of the Year file
Holmgren will have another face-to-face with Victor Wembanyama: April 10 in Oklahoma City. But his candidacy is more about team efficiency and success than winning games or putting up big numbers on a given night.
The Thunder are on track to finish first or second in the Western Conference. It is the only team that ranks in the top five in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency improvement.
They have just two new players in their rotation, including a 21-year-old who is setting a rookie scoring efficiency record while ranking among the best rim protectors in the league.
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John Schuhmann is a senior statistics analyst for NBA.com. You can send him an email herefind his archives here And follow him on X.
The views expressed on this page do not necessarily reflect those of the NBA, its clubs, or Warner Bros. Discovery.
