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Picture the scene a month from now: the chaos of March Madness will be in the rearview mirror, it will officially be spring, and all 30 NBA teams will be wrapping up the final day of the regular season. It will be time for the playoffs – and the play-in tournaments.
But there is a lot to discover between now and then. Some teams have to treat the final month like the playoffs as they fight for position to avoid play-ins.
In this edition of Bet or Bail, we focus on two teams that are at or near the top of their respective conferences.
How Towns’ injury affects the T-Wolves
Long suffering Timber wolves fans finally experienced some hope, joy and optimism over the past few months, before a familiar feeling of heartbreak and agony coursed through the organization. Karl-Anthony Towns injured his knee 10 days ago. The injury appeared serious at the time, but was later diagnosed as a torn meniscus, prompting a sigh of relief throughout Minnesota.
Towns had surgery but is expected to return this season. Oddsmakers never believed the Wolves’ regular season success would translate into a playoff run – they always fell short. Nuggets, Clippers, SunsAnd Thunder on the odds table. Minnesota was +900 to win the West before Towns’ injury and is at +1300 NOW.
After some justified initial skepticism, the Towns and Rudy Gobert frontcourt duo finally clicked. The imposing presence of bigs, the emergence of Anthony Edwards and a stifling perimeter defense propelled the Timberwolves into first place in the West.
But the Wolves have missed Towns since his absence – obviously – and are sliding in the standings without their second-leading scorer and rebounder.
Towns is the self-proclaimed greatest shooting giant of all time. He actually has a case to make. The All-Star is shooting 42% from three on over five attempts per game, leading to 22 points per night.
His knockdown shooting ability – 43% on catch-and-shoot looks – creates space for Edwards and Gobert to operate in the pick-and-roll:
Towns’ ability to stretch the defense doesn’t create collisions in the lane, which usually happens when playing against two bigs, especially against a non-shooter like Gobert.
The Wolves have an offensive rating of 116 (top 12 in the NBA) with Towns on the court. That drops to 107 when he’s out, second-worst in the league.
Even though they won a convincing victory against the Clippers As of Tuesday, when Kawhi Leonard left the game early, the Wolves are 2-2 since Towns’ injury.
Edwards inevitably had to carry a bigger offensive load. He’s averaging 31.3 points on 28.5 shots per game over the last four games, up from his season average of 26 points on 20 shots.
Naz Reid benefited the most. The backup center plays more minutes and scores more points. He doesn’t have Towns’ shooting accuracy – not much – but Reid is still a useful shooting forward.
Reid has earned more minutes since Towns went down and is being asked to shoot more threes. Despite a quiet outing against Los Angeles on Tuesday, Reid has made 13 threes in the last four games. He has exceeded his points in three of the last four games. The fifth-year player admirably fills the hole left by Towns as a big shooter:
The Wolves enter Thursday’s action as the No. 3 seed in a tight race to the top of the West. If Towns fails to return healthy for the playoffs, the Wolves’ season will end in the first round. For now, Minnesota must continue to stay afloat without its star.
What to think of Doc’s Bucks
THE DeerDefensive deficiencies ultimately led to the firing of Adrian Griffin mid-season.
Doc Rivers’ priority was getting the defense — which ranked fourth in defensive rating last season — on the right track. And that’s exactly what he did. Despite suspect perimeter personnel, Rivers turned a team that couldn’t stop a nosebleed into a surgical group.
The Bucks had a below-average defense before the All-Star break. Over the last 15 games, the Bucks own a top-11 defensive rating. Milwaukee started 1-5 in Rivers’ first six games, but is 9-5 since. He covered the spread in nine wins during that span.
The Bucks’ defensive turnaround catapulted them into a tie with the Wine merchants for the No. 2 seed in the East. But it also led to an exceptional losing streak: 17 of the 20 games (85%) Rivers coached fell short or landed on the total. Before that, only 40% of the Bucks’ games were under the total.
History says don’t trust Rivers’ teams in the playoffs. Milwaukee will likely advance to the Eastern Conference Finals in a disconcerted and injury-riddled East. He still has the second-best odds to win the East (+315) and the fourth-best odds to win the NBA Finals.
The Bucks’ superstar duo can compete with the Celtics» and they will have the best player in this series, but do they have enough depth? Khris Middleton hasn’t played since early February and has been on a steep decline over the past two years. He is no longer a reliable third option.
Offensively, the Bucks run a little more pick-and-roll action with Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That led to better production from Lillard, who was having his best month of the season before his unusually poor outing on Tuesday.
Lillard knocked down 40 percent of his three-pointers in March, allowing him to take the upper hand on his 3-point props — typically rated at 3.5 — in six of the last nine games.
The Bucks still aren’t a legitimate threat to the Celtics (-125 to win in the East), but their improvement on both ends has created a sizable gap between them and the East’s top tier.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting editor at theScore. You can follow him on @soshtry for more betting coverage.
