LeBron James and the Lakers will host Steph Curry and the SoCal rivals the Warriors on Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC) in what could be a preview of the NBA Play-In tournament.
The stacked Western Conference has seen Los Angeles and Golden State alternate in ninth and tenth place most of the season, with the 36-31 Lakers currently one game ahead of the 34-31 Warriors. Both of these teams had moments of brilliance down the stretch, but they also showed plenty of signs of weakness throughout the parity-driven campaign.
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Neither team has played since Wednesday, so they should be pretty well rested for this battle of southern Cali. With the season series currently split at 1-1, we should be in for a good one. Let’s dive into the odds, then discuss the betting scenario we plan to unveil as we reveal our Lakers vs. Warriors. best bets and best props from BetMGM.
Lakers vs Warriors prediction, player props, betting against the spread and moneyline
All odds and props are from BetMGM, a licensed NBA gaming operator.
- ATS: Lakers -2.5 (-105) | Warriors +2.5 (-115)
- Money line: Lakers -140 | Warriors +115
- More less : W 233.5 (-105) | U 233.5 (-115)
Sportsbooks recognize the Lakers’ home-court advantage, as Los Angeles has gone 24-11 on Crypto.com and just 12-20 on the road. Golden State, however, has a better record on the road (17-14) than at home (17-17).
The Lakers are 24-22 against conference opponents this season and have won six of their last 10 games. The Dubs, meanwhile, went just 17-23 in the West and split their last 10 games 5-5.
Lakers vs Warriors predictions, best bets
One thing we cannot ignore when analyzing this match: rest. The Lakers went 23-15 while enjoying the same rest as their opponents, while the Warriors went a measly 17-26 in the same situation. With Los Angeles at home, rested and seemingly healthier than the Dubs, we turn our attention to the local favorites.
Steph Curry (ankle) has missed three straight games, and Draymond Green (back) is listed as day-to-day after missing the Dubs’ loss Wednesday night at Dallas. The Warriors scored a paltry 99 points in this game and they were held to 113 or less in each of their previous two games against Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs 14-52.
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Even though Curry is expected to suit up, the Warriors likely won’t have enough firepower to keep up with Bron, AD and the Lakers at home. Los Angeles is averaging 117.8 points per game at home (top 10 in the NBA), while Golden State is averaging just 108.6 PPG over its last six away games.
Want an even more mind-blowing statistic? Since the beginning of November, the Dubs have lost nine straight road games against teams currently in playoff position in the Western Conference (Mavs, Nugs, Clips, Suns, Thunder, Clips, Kings, Suns, Nugs). That’s pretty brutal, and Golden State is making a pretty brutal gamble against a (relatively) healthy and well-rested Lakers team at home in mid-March.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Lakers 123, Warriors 115 – The Lakers earn (-175) And blanket (-2.5), and the score ends ON the projected total (233.5).
Lakers vs Warriors: bet on the best player
Steph Curry Points — OVER 25.5 (-105)
If the Warriors do indeed lose this one, we don’t think it will be Steph’s fault. Curry dropped 46 points in the Dubs’ one-point loss to the Lakers on Jan. 27 at Chase Center, then scored 32 in an 18-point win in Los Angeles on Feb. 22.
With his over/under scoring modest due to questionable health and up-and-down production over his last 10 games, we view this as a prime opportunity. The greatest shooter of all time wouldn’t be up to the task if he wasn’t willing to go into overdrive against a major conference rival. Crush the OVER on the chef and encourage him to cook up another 30 point party.
