The Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks played a memorable six-game playoff series last April, and it seemed like both teams’ fortunes were on an upward trajectory. But while the Celtics have emerged from this playoffs bigger and better than ever, the Hawks are on the brink of an existential team-building crisis.
Atlanta has disappointed for a few straight years now, and neither the star trade for Dejounte Murray nor a new coach in Quin Snyder has gotten them back on their feet. Now Trae Young is out indefinitely and the future of this core is uncertain.
Although the Celtics’ position atop the playoff standings is all but guaranteed, I don’t expect them to take pity on their former playoff flagship on Monday, March 25.
My NBA Pick and predictions for Celtics vs. Hawks think the NBA Odds once again underestimate Boston’s level of historical dominance.
Celtics vs. Hawks odds
Celtics vs Hawks Predictions
Even by their high standards, Boston Celtics have been crushing teams lately. Not only are they 9-1 in a row in their last 10 games, but they are an impressive 8-2 against the spread. They haven’t had a mid-season slump or let up one bit even though they have the No. 1 overall seed with just over 10 games left in the regular season.
THE Atlanta Falcons find themselves on the other end of the table with a 31-39 record and without the services of Trae Young for the foreseeable future.
The Hawks’ point differential over the past two weeks is just -0.6, which is admirable considering their injury report. This is also why the Hawks don’t look more like dogs at 14.5 points against the Celtics tonight.
But this difference in points is misleading. It’s inflated by a giant blowout win over the slightly more inept Charlotte Hornets, but Atlanta also suffered losses to the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz during that span.
Boston is 13-2 in a row, with a point differential of +18.4 in its last 15 games. During the same period, the Celtics outperformed the spread by an average of 8.4 points per game, easily making them the most profitable ATS team during that period.
Despite being the best team in the NBA, with the best record and therefore the worst odds, the Celtics have outperformed expectations more than anyone. They have consistently demonstrated their quality but punters continue to underestimate them.
Even though neither game these teams played this season ended with a final disparity greater than 10 points, Trae and Jalen Johnson were the main reasons why the final scores remained even halfway respectable.
The Hawks will greatly miss Johnson on the wing in this matchup against the Celtics’ star duo, Jaylen Brown And Jayson Tatum. Trae, for his part, had playoff success against Boston last April and a Defeat Murray the offense won’t be enough to keep this within striking distance.
The Celtics have won 36 games by 10 or more points this season. They are also 26-1 against teams below .500. This is a team that takes care of business with more consistency than any other, and that will continue to be the case today.
My best bet: Celtics -11.5 (-110 at Betway)
Parlay Celtics vs Hawks in the same game
Celtics -12
Celtics Team Total Over 118.5
Jaylen Brown Over 22.5 points
Brown missed Saturday’s game against the Chicago Bulls with an ankle injury, which is likely why his points are extremely low tonight.
But the Celtics will also likely play conservatively with injuries given their place in the standings. The last few times a Celtics player has returned from an injury absence, he hasn’t seemed significantly limited. If Brown does indeed play, I expect him to be close to his usual form.
And this form has been exceptional of late. Brown has averaged 29.6 points over his last 10 games thanks to some of the most efficient shooting of his career.
The other concern is that it becomes a blowout before Brown can reach that number, but Jaylen does most of his damage early before even the most aggressive coach considers pulling his starters. This somewhat protects Brown from low-scoring games, even when they quickly become uncompetitive.
I also expect a solid offensive output from Boston as a whole.
The Hawks’ defense ranked 25th in the NBA over the past two weeks, and many of those games came against some of the worst offenses in the Association. The Celtics posted an offensive rating of 131.8 which is by far the best mark in the NBA, and eight points better per 100 than their already season-long mark.
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Celtics vs Hawks Spread and Over/Under Analysis
While at least one sportsbook opened with the Celtics at -10.5, most had them at -11.5 and many books were as high as -12.5 at the time of writing.
The Hawks were having a bad season even before they were ravaged by injuries, but now they’re just a shadow of that limited team. They’ve also been abysmal in their attempts to defend the floor, going just 12-22 ATS at home this season – only the 13-win Washington Wizards are worse.
Monday’s total opened between 226.5 and 227.5, and it’s down to 225.5 for most sportsbooks. That seems a bit low to me considering the Celtics’ offensive threats, but there are real reasons to be skeptical of Atlanta’s offense.
The Hawks have put together a Top 10 offense over the past two weeks, but they failed to score 100 points against the Memphis Grizzlies and barely had more against the Trail Blazers. Their true level could be revealed against the Celtics.
Boston is the third-best defense in the league, although it might be a little worse than usual given that Jrue Holiday is out and Derrick White is questionable.
Celtics vs Hawks betting trend to know
The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. NBA Betting Trends for the Celtics against the Hawks.
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Celtics vs. Hawks Game Info
| Location: | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia |
| Date: | Monday March 25, 2024 |
| Trick : | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Boston, Bally Sports Southeast-Atlanta |
Latest Celtics Injuries vs. Hawks
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