After another period where his name was prominent in trade discussions, Moses Moody appears likely to once again enter his fourth year with the Golden State Warriors.
The 22-year-old’s role within the franchise has fluctuated considerably and then become a major storyline, with an additional element now added given that Moody is eligible for an extension before the start of next season.
Evaluating rookie contract extensions is always difficult because of the need to weigh current performance against future potential, but it’s even more difficult for someone like Moody whose opportunities have so often been limited by head coach Steve Kerr.
If a player is going to continue to be on the edge of a rotation, then ideally you don’t want to pay him more than $5-6 million per season, especially in the NBA’s current climate of punitive tax aprons.
But is it so unlikely that Moody could still become a productive starting-caliber player whose defensive skills are so highly regarded around the league? In that scenario, we might be talking about a player worth upwards of $18-20 million per season.
ESPN’s Kendra Andrews reported earlier in the month than “Moody’s contract could be worth $11 million to $13 million per season.” If the former lottery pick is willing to sign that multi-year extension, the Warriors should honestly take it and run. It’s a low-risk deal with huge upside if Moody explodes in a way that some believe he still could if he gets regular playing time.
But what’s the max the Warriors should offer? It’s always good to look at the contracts signed by young players in a similar position last season as a potential guide. Aaron Nesmith, for example, who was also the 14th pick a year before Moody, got three years and $33 million from the Indiana Pacers in what now looks like an extremely team-friendly deal after a season in which he averaged 27.7 minutes and shot 41.9 percent from three-point range.
Josh Green signed a three-year, $41 million deal with the Dallas Mavericks, while Deni Avdija signed a four-year, $55 million deal with the Washington Wizards. Coincidentally, both players are no longer with those teams after being traded this offseason.
Moody is within those ranges, even despite the lack of solidification of his role over the past two seasons. Golden State should probably stop at $15 million per season, so something in the realm of $45 million over three years or $60 million over four years. Anything above that and it’s just too risky without knowing exactly what Kerr will do with the young wing over the next season.
