The Houston Rockets have entered the second phase of their four-year rebuild after a 41-41 season.
Everyone involved with the Rockets expects nothing less than a playoff berth. In the final month of the 2023-24 season, the Rockets pushed the Golden State Warriors to a playoff berth before falling apart late in the season.
The Western Conference has been the tougher of the two conferences year after year, and that should be the case next season as well. The last three teams to clinch a play-in spot were the San Antonio Spurs with 34 wins, the Oklahoma City Thunder with 40 wins and the Golden State Warriors with 46 wins last season.
The Rockets’ 41 wins would have gotten them at least a spot in the play-in in 2022 and 2023, but the minimum win threshold seems to be increasing each season. How many wins will the Rockets need to at least make the play-in next season?
Heading into next season, the Rockets are no longer looking to improve in terms of moral victories. Gone are the days of being satisfied with a .500 record and improving players. Now, the Rockets are ready to take the next step: the playoffs.
It would be a lot easier if they could just finish in the top six and not have to worry about the play-in, but given how competitive their conference is, that might not be a reality. Last season, Golden State won 46 games and was still only a 10th seed. For the Rockets to be in the playoff race in the final weeks of the season, they need to win at least 45 games.
Teams like the Lakers and Warriors battled to make the play-in for most of last season, meaning the Rockets will have to outpace teams with more playoff and championship experience. Even with the added play-in games, the road to the playoffs remains an uphill battle in the Western Conference.
As mentioned earlier, 45 wins seems to be the minimum win total for the Rockets to even have a chance to play beyond the regular season for the first time since 2021.
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