Victor Wembanyama entered the NBA with loopy expectations as a 7’4″ French phenom, and he instantly delivered in his rookie marketing campaign (21.4 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 3.9 APG, 46.5 FG%), proving why he is among the hottest basketball prospects in latest reminiscence. Whereas the San Antonio Spurs completed with only a 22-609 file, it was sufficient for voters to unanimously award him the Rookie of the 12 months award.
As spectacular as Wemby’s rookie season was, one can solely assume it was just the start. With a brilliant future forward of him, is it too early to foretell whether or not Wembanyama has sufficient strengths in him to presumably overtake LeBron James because the NBA’s all-time main scorer?
Is Victor Wembanyama destined for a profession much like that of Tim Duncan?
The comparisons between Wembanyama and Tim Duncan are exhausting to disregard. Like Wemby, Duncan was one of many Spurs’ primary picks, received Rookie of the 12 months and averaged 21 factors per sport throughout his profession. rookie season. There are just a few key variations, nevertheless. Duncan performed in all 82 video games throughout his rookie marketing campaign and averaged 10 extra minutes per sport than Wembanyama. Nonetheless, each gamers confirmed related promise early of their careers for a similar franchise.
Since it’s bodily inconceivable to foretell a participant’s sturdiness, let’s assume Wemby follows in Duncan’s footsteps by way of sturdiness and longevity. Throughout Duncan’s profession, he performed 19 seasons and appeared in 89 p.c of his workforce’s video games, which interprets to a median of 72 video games per season. Assuming Wembanyama does the identical, he needs to be anticipated to play till the age of 39.
When will Victor Wembanyama attain his peak?
The subsequent guess to make is what number of factors Wembanyama can rating on common every season as he enters his prime. Within the NBA, gamers sometimes attain their peak scores between their late 20s and early 30s. Analysis reveals that almost all athletes attain their peak throughout this time, and with Wemby’s potential, it’s believable to counsel that he’ll enhance considerably as he matures.
For the sake of this projection and the NBA’s offensive dedication, let’s assume that over the following 9 years Wemby will increase his scoring, finally peaking at a median of 27 factors per sport at age 30, which is a conservative estimate. on condition that many nice gamers corresponding to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis have seen their averages climb all through their careers.
As soon as Wemby hits his peak, let’s assume his manufacturing degree mirrors Duncan’s profession. With this assumption, we will assume that Wemby’s averages will regularly lower by about two factors per season as he will get older, however he won’t ever rating lower than 15 factors per sport solely till his closing season.
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Calculating Victor Wembanyama’s profession scoring totals
Based mostly on the assumptions mentioned beforehand, we will estimate that Wemby will common 23.9 factors per sport over the course of his profession. Assuming he’ll play 72 video games per season and play till age 39, that equates to roughly 32,241 profession factors.
If for some motive the present prime 10 sees no change in 19 years, Wemby’s level complete would rank him because the sixth-highest scorer in NBA historical past, simply 50 factors behind Michael Jordan, who at the moment ranks fifth with 32,292 factors. Whereas this projection does not come near James’ all-time scoring file, it nonetheless locations Wemby in a uncommon breed of gamers who’ve managed to attain over 30,000 factors.
Whether or not Wemby finishes his profession with 32,000 factors or extra, his success will likely be measured by what number of rings he can win and the influence he has on the sport as some of the thrilling prospects within the fashionable historical past of the NBA.
