On New 12 months’s Eve, the Minnesota Timberwolves noticed the long run, and the long run was wonderful.
Sadly, it belongs to the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder.
At 27-5, the Thunder’s won-lost file is not less than 5 video games higher than another group within the rugged 15-team Western Convention. Coming into Tuesday night time’s recreation in opposition to the Wolves, their protection was permitting fewer factors per possession in comparison with the league common than any group within the 29 years the NBA has been holding play-by-play information.
They’re the second-youngest group within the NBA. Regardless of their superlative but precocious efficiency, they haven’t mortgaged their future. Quite the opposite, they at the moment personal the rights to 13 picks within the first-round of the drafts between 2025-2030, and 17 picks within the second spherical for seasoning across the edges ought to one thing minor go amiss. That’s why, in a latest ballot carried out by The Athletic, the Thunder have been deemed the most effective entrance workplace — personnel managers — of all of the groups within the 4 main sports activities (soccer, baseball, basketball and hockey) as voted on by their friends.
Enjoying OKC for the primary time in 4 scheduled conferences this season was thus a litmus take a look at for the Wolves, whose entrance workplace completed fifth among the many 30 NBA groups and 20th among the many 124 groups total in The Athletic ballot. Minnesota got here into the sport having received 9 of its final 13 contests, all in opposition to opponents with a file of .500 or higher, whereas compiling the NBA’s second-best defensive score (behind the Thunder, after all) over that span.
However there was one side of the matchup that portended doom for the Wolves: turnovers. Coming into the sport, the Thunder have been forcing opponents to commit 18.8 turnovers per 100 possessions, the very best price in 26 years. And for the third straight season, the Wolves ranked among the many backside ten groups by way of their means to retain possession of the basketball.
For the primary 27-and-a-half minutes of the sport, Minnesota was thriving. On the half they have been up by six, 52-46, and had ceded simply 7 factors off their 8 turnovers to the Thunder, properly beneath OKC’s common of greater than 23 factors scored per recreation through opponent turnovers. Within the first two-and-a-half minutes of the third quarter, the Wolves doubled their result in a dozen, 65-53, thanks to a few straight three-pointers from level guard Mike Conley.
Then got here the deluge.
After Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) hit a baseline jumper to chop the result in 10, Wolves heart Rudy Gobert smashed a wide-open slam-dunk try off the again iron of the rim. Whereas Gobert was late in getting again on protection, three Timberwolves ran to cease OKC’s Cason Wallace on the drive, ignoring Lu Dort behind the three-point line within the nook, the place he has made 41% of his makes an attempt throughout his 6-year profession. Dort’s splash made it a 7-point lead.
Julius Randle was pickpocketed off the dribble, resulting in a breakout layup by SGA. The Wolves uncared for the shortened shot clock after working time stopped for substitutions. OKC seized on that turnover when Conley was crushed off the dribble by Wallace and Kenrich Williams hit one other nook three off Wallace’s feed when Naz Reid came visiting to assist.
OKC had lowered the Wolves lead from 12 to 2 in 113 seconds. Coach Chris Finch referred to as time, however when play resumed, the steamroll stayed in third gear. Within the 8:30 between Conley’s array of treys and the shut of the third quarter, OKC outscored the Wolves 36-10. Greater than half of these factors, 19, got here off 9 Timberwolves turnovers.
The Wolves rallied valiantly within the closing interval, slicing the Thunder result in 3 with 2:03 left within the recreation, however three extra turnovers sealed their destiny and the ultimate rating was 113-105, OKC’s 12th straight victory.
“We did the one factor that we couldn’t do: turned the ball over at a excessive degree. We talked about that coming in right here,” mentioned an clearly disgruntled Finch, throughout a postgame press convention that lasted 74 seconds. Certainly, the ultimate tally was 31 Thunder factors scored off 24 Timberwolves turnovers, whereas the Wolves garnered simply 8 factors off 12 OKC miscues — a 23-point disparity in a recreation determined by 8 factors.
Making the Wolves repeatedly synergistic
In the event you’re measuring the 2024-25 Timberwolves in opposition to the Thunder, you’re mechanically dialing up doldrums. Save your dolor for the 12-day span from Feb. 13-24, when the 2 groups full their season sequence with three matchups. Between every now and then is a commerce deadline (Feb. 6), six weeks of tinkering, and a week-long All-Star break earlier than you come with a back-to-back, home-and-away duet with OKC proper after the layoff.
Earlier than the Wolves can think about themselves friends with the Thunder, or the defending champion Boston Celtics, their opponent Thursday night time, they should land on roster combos and rotations that may be repeatedly synergistic. By now it’s no secret that the buying and selling away of Karl-Anthony Cities (KAT) for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo (DDV) was extra disruptive than anticipated, and discovering a strategy to maximize Randle’s distinctive ability set whereas retaining the extraordinary expertise that holdover core gamers at or close to the highest of the pecking order — Anthony Edwards, Gobert and Conley — has been a trial riddled with errors.
Finch has achieved an awesome job activating Randle’s extra complementary traits by rotating him in with personnel off the bench that house the ground and play at a quicker tempo. The rub right here is that these bench gamers — DDV, Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NAW) and Naz Reid — are the trio getting probably the most out of their pure means to date this season. To this point, they’ve been good with all people.
Positive, Randle has thrived whereas filling the “level ahead” position within the second unit, in a fashion considerably just like what Kyle “SloMo” Anderson did final season. However the truth is that Conley and Gobert thrived alongside the bench trio too; and if you toss Josh Minott in because the ninth man, he galvanizes that trio as a kindred spirit in methods the unique starters can’t.
Earlier than the Wolves ran their successful streak to a few with a victory over the Spurs final week, I requested Finch if a tweak in roles among the many starters — placing Randle in on-ball protection in opposition to the opposing massive so Gobert was allowed to roam extra comfortably — was working as a result of it plugged Randle into one thing KAT did for 2 seasons.
Finch agreed that the familiarity helped Gobert and different holdovers and mentioned, “We actually love doing it. However you realize each night time, once more, issues are slightly completely different, due to decide and rolls and different matchups on the ground and that type of stuff. Final yr we have been in a position to settle right into a rhythm and do it. This yr it has type of been slightly bit extra of a studying curve for us.”
The state of affairs is just like two seasons in the past, when Finch and roster struggled to acclimate to a scheme and dynamic that may enable Gobert and KAT to flourish each individually and individually, in line with rotations. The important thing distinction this season is that it’s removed from sure whether or not the group each wishes and might afford to include Randle as a long-term piece within the group. Even when he isn’t, it is sensible to spice up his worth for a possible commerce within the subsequent six weeks. However not in the event you’re messing with the crown jewels.
That will be Ant, the resident famous person and pervasive high precedence. His fabulous three-point taking pictures has correctly generated quite a lot of optimistic consideration. Ditto his inspiring, verbal kick-in-the-pants to his teammates in late November, which crystallized higher team-wide effort and focus.
However the uncomfortable truth is that Ant has not been the joyous power of nature and the crunchtime catalyst so very important to the group’s success the previous two seasons — and he is aware of it. You possibly can inform by his more and more salty angle towards the officiating, and his prolonged bouts of lassitude that used to primarily pockmark his play with respect to off-ball protection, however has invaded his offensive decision-making and initiation in latest weeks.
For instance, Ant performed the overwhelming majority of that third quarter on Tuesday night time earlier than heading to the bench with lower than three minutes to play. Throughout that 9:03, the field rating has him down for one turnover and one private foul. No photographs, no dimes, no boards, no steals. Against this, SGA, his famous person counterpart for OKC, had 19 factors, a steal and a turnover.
In prior seasons, Ant would have adopted that disappearing act with some fireworks within the fourth quarter. However on Tuesday, though he did chip in two free throws, three rebounds and an help, Ant missed 4 of 5 photographs, together with an airball nook three and a floater that hit the again iron within the closing 5 minutes of the group’s tried comeback.
Ant has motive to be annoyed by the dearth of calls he receives from the officers. Among the many high 20 scorers within the NBA, solely Kyrie Irving (who is nineteenth in factors per recreation, in comparison with Ant being fifteenth) will get to the free-throw line much less usually. But it surely isn’t all a conspiracy idea.
Ant’s three-point prowess has begun to shortchange different features of his recreation. His two-point makes an attempt are much less frequent than in all however his second season within the league and his accuracy on photographs contained in the arc is a profession low. At the least partly as a consequence of his relative inactivity in going to the ring, he’s attending to the road much less often per 36 minutes than in any of his 4 prior seasons. Does making 41.5% of his treys on 13.3 makes an attempt per recreation compensate for that? It’s extra debatable than you may assume.
One might argue that Ant’s taking pictures opens up the ground for others. However Ant’s personal playmaking isn’t exploiting that advantage. His assists per 36 minutes are the bottom since his rookie season and his assist-to-turnover ratio is a profession low. And regardless of that notoriously nice taking pictures from long-range, his dropoff in free throw makes an attempt and decrease accuracy from two-point vary really makes his present true taking pictures share (57.4%) a smidgen beneath what it was final season (57.5%).
A beginning lineup that doesn’t work
Like virtually all people else on the group, Ant’s contributions turn into extra rewarding, for himself and the group, when he’s taking part in with Naz, NAW and DDV. And whether or not it’s the underappreciated versatility of KAT’s match with the group or some mixture of getting old, unfamiliarity, or just a stubbornly gradual begin, all the 4 starters that have been beside KAT have taken a step again this season.
Final yr, Gobert captained an outstanding protection that was the most effective within the NBA almost from begin to end, powered by a synergistic meld of Gobert’s willingness to belief his teammates and defend in house extra usually, and their means to engender that belief with disciplined vitality. This yr has seen video games by which Gobert has been overwhelmed by his matchup — KAT in the course of the Knicks recreation and Houston’s Alperen Sengun the 2 occasions the Wolves have confronted the Rockets. At any time when attainable, placing Randle on the opposing massive makes extra sense — however then having Randle on the ground with Jaden McDaniels and Gobert clearly hamstrings the roles and luxury ranges of Ant and Conley.
Backside line, the beginning lineup doesn’t work, particularly by way of offense. And after 32 video games, the pattern dimension is changing into extra conclusive. However how do you scramble it? Do you safeguard and improve your top-notch expertise and/or costliest investments, or do you lean on their endurance and adaptability for the sake of extra long-term pondering?
All issues thought-about, it’s considerably reassuring that regardless of ongoing roster changes — and conversely, stubbornly insufficient standing quos — and subpar seasons from core personnel, the Wolves stay firmly within the playoff hunt within the rugged West with a 17-15 file. After they swooned simply earlier than Thanksgiving, and flirted with a dropping file even after recovering in mid-December, it felt like drastic motion was warranted. And even at the moment, the notion of tweaking the starters or getting critical about what the plans are for Randle’s future (and the chain reactions that inevitably ensue from that) are reliable subjects to placed on the desk.
However because the cliché goes, don’t let the right be the enemy of the great. Regardless of his ugly recreation (5 turnovers) in opposition to OKC, NAW is an ongoing inspiration to witness. The protection and rebounding of DDV have greater than compensated for inaccurate taking pictures and spotty playmaking — each of which have begun to enhance. Josh Minott is a whirlwind and Julius Randle is a close-combat warrior at each ends of the court docket. Final however by no means least, Ant units a ridiculously excessive bar and is thus superb even when he disappoints.
It’s been a blurry season by way of each efficiency and identification. And even when it clarifies, the image seemingly received’t be as fairly as what’s being watched in OKC. However from the entrance workplace down by way of the tip of the bench, it is a franchise with expertise and ambition, its future frequently intriguing till additional discover.
Britt Robson has coated the Timberwolves since 1990 for Metropolis Pages, The Rake, SportsIllustrated.com and The Athletic. He additionally has written about all kinds and kinds of music for over 30 years.
