A deep dive into the 2024-25 Atlanta Hawks schedule

The NBA summer is a long night that seems to take forever to turn into day, and while the Olympics served as a showcase for competitive basketball, the countdown to the 2024-25 season continues to tick away.

However, with the release of the NBA schedule, you can start to visualize the path ahead for your respective teams as they strive to achieve their respective goals, whether that be a title run, a playoff contendership, showing signs of life in a rebuild… or heading straight into another down year and hoping not to lose 28 straight games (cough, Detroit, cough).

The Atlanta Hawks are in win-now mode and are hoping to get back into the automatic playoff spot. They made a big move this summer by trading away Dejounte Murray and drafting Zaccharie Risacher with the first overall pick, and it will be interesting to see if those additions/subtractions can help the Hawks get back into the playoffs.

With the schedule now out, the Hawks can start planning ahead and identifying the good and bad parts of their schedule, and that’s what we’re going to do today as well! If you’re new to these schedule dives, we’re breaking down each month and breaking it down in detail, discussing key games along the way.

Without further ado, let’s get started, starting with the dawn of the new season in October:

Total number of games: 5

Home matches: 3

Outdoor games: 2

Back to back: 1

The longest road trip: 1 game

The longest homestead: 2 games

Opponent’s projected average win total (based on Caesar’s total victories): 29.5 wins

It has to be said, this is a good start for the Atlanta Hawks. The Nets, Hornets and Wizards should be teams the Hawks should handle, and many expect them to handle them with ease – which I tend to agree with; that should be the expectation. I think some will look to this game against the Oklahoma City Thunder as a way to measure the Hawks, and I don’t think that’s entirely fair. The Thunder are a title contender, and while I think it would be good for the Hawks to get a win against them, how they handle their business against the “lesser” teams they should be expected to beat will be the best yardstick here in October.

For reference, Atlanta’s projected win total is 35.5.

Let’s move on to November:

Total number of games: 16

Home matches: 8

Outdoor games: 8

Back to back: 4

The longest road trip: 4 games

The longest homestead: 2 games

Opponent’s projected average win total (based on Caesar’s total victories): 41 wins

November, as always, is the month where reality can hit like a slap in the mouth, and it does for the Hawks with 16 games split evenly between home and away games — albeit with a four-game road trip in the middle of the month — and four back-to-backs.

Strong opponents are in full force, with two games against the Boston Celtics, two against the Cleveland Cavaliers in home-and-home, as well as games against the Mavericks and a meeting with Dejounte Murray in New Orleans. Weaker opponents include teams like the Pistons and Hornets, and two games against the Chicago Bulls will be an interesting indicator, as the Hawks and Bulls have been the play-in kings of the Eastern Conference since its inception.

Speaking of competitions, the NBA Cup, or in-season tournament, also begins in earnest in November, with a couple of winnable games on the schedule: a tough game in Boston and a home game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, which will serve as a good benchmark since the Hawks are aiming to be a playoff team where the Cavaliers are likely to be.

Let’s move on to December:

Total number of games: To be confirmed, provisionally 10

Home matches: Provisionally, 7

Outdoor games:Provisionally, 3

Back to back: 1

The longest road trip: 1 game

The longest homestead: 4 games

Opponent’s projected average win total (based on Caesar’s total victories): 43 wins

December is a month where the calendar is not yet fully defined, pending the results of the NBA Cup matches in November, so the gap between the Nuggets game on December 8 and the San Antonio Spurs game on December 19 is for the moment put aside by the NBA where two games should eventually be filled.

On the surface, December sees the Hawks welcome back Dejounte Murray to Atlanta to begin the final month of 2024. Murray’s reception should be pretty warm, I don’t think there’s any animosity between the fanbase and Murray, but I think you can be sure Murray will want a big night in his return.

The Hawks have a number of home games in December, but many of them come against strong opponents, like the Nuggets, Wolves, the aforementioned Pelicans, Heat, Lakers, and Grizzlies. Milwaukee on the road always represents a tough matchup, and finishing 2024 in Toronto could also be a bit tricky.

In short, the Hawks will face a lot of good, fun teams in December, and if they can win three or four of their home games in December against some of those teams, I think the Hawks should be happy with that.

On the road to 2025:

Total number of games: 15 games

Home matches: 5 games

Outdoor games:10 games

Back to back: 3

The longest road trip: 5 games

The longest homestead: 3 games

Opponent’s projected average win total (based on Caesar’s total victories): 42 wins

The year 2025 doesn’t look very kind to the Atlanta Hawks: 10 road games, including five road games for the Hawks’ (later than usual) Western Conference trip. Plus, it’s part of a six-game overall road trip that begins in Toronto and ends 2024. Even the one game that looks a bit more winnable, against the Utah Jazz, is by no means a guarantee, as it’s proven to be a tough game before.

Even at the end of this Western Conference road trip, the respite is short-lived: two home games followed by another three-game road trip against tough opponents. The schedule leaves a short window of more winnable games against the Pistons and Raptors twice, but otherwise, the start of 2025 could be tough.

The biggest insult, though, is that the Hawks don’t have a home game on MLK Day. Instead, they’ll be traveling to New York to play the Knicks. Traditionally, the Hawks host an early MLK Day game — and were the first team to host an MLK Day game in the NBA in 1986 and have played the most MLK Day games — and for Atlanta not to have a home game is absurd. The last time the Hawks didn’t host a home game on MLK Day was in 2017, when the game was also played in New York, and before that, Atlanta had hosted a game the previous 21 years.

Moving to February:

Total number of games: 12

Home matches: 6

Outdoor games: 6

Back to back: 2

The longest road trip: 3 games

The longest homestead: 3 games

Opponent’s projected average win total (based on Caesar’s total victories): 42 wins

A shortened February due to the All-Star break and a balanced mix of games from both extremes, such as two games against the Detroit Pistons and one game against the Washington Wizards. On the other hand, games against New York, OKC, Milwaukee and finally the season openers against the Orlando Magic present a number of challenges, as the Hawks’ season, whatever it may be, is now abundantly clear.

Moving to March:

Total number of games: 14

Home matches: 9

Outdoor games: 5

Back to back: 2

The longest road trip: 2 games

The longest homestead: 6 games

Opponent’s projected average win total (based on Caesar’s total victories): 43 wins

Home games finally start to arrive in March, with the Hawks enjoying a six-game homestand, including back-to-back home games against the same opponent against Indiana. The Hawks finally meet the revamped 76ers, twice, while also facing the Bucks twice.

The projected opponent win average of 43 this month – despite the Brooklyn Nets’ projected 18.5 wins – underscores that despite the tough home schedule, there is still tough opposition to face as the season draws to a close.

At this closing:

Total number of games: 8

Home matches: 4

Outdoor games: 4

Back to back: 3

The longest road trip: 3 games

The longest homestead: 2 games

Opponent’s projected average win total (based on Caesar’s total victories): 40 wins

Two more games against the Magic and games against the Sixers and Mavericks present challenges for the Hawks to finish the season — if they can actually compete for a playoff spot. A few winnable games to finish against the Nets and Jazz could help the Hawks get over the finish line if they need an easy win or two.

In conclusion…

In past seasons, there have been clear divisions in the schedule where you could say, “Once the Hawks get through — insert month here — it should get a little easier for them.” The 2019-20 season is a good example of that, where the Hawks were never able to take advantage of the easiest part of their schedule for the season.

This season there doesn’t seem to be an “easy” month for them, apart from the first few games in October. February has its ups and downs; some really bad teams (in theory) but also the best teams. November is also looking particularly tough, as are January and March.

Of course, it bears repeating that the “difficulty” of opponents right now is based on projections. Teams surprise and disappoint. The Hawks could very well be one of the teams that surprises relative to expectations. They are also one Trae Young injury away from a completely ruined season, and can no longer count on Dejounte Murray to keep the team afloat in Young’s absence.

Given that the Hawks are projected to win around 35 games, that likely means they won’t be able to claim the final play-in spot, if you’re lucky. It also suggests that nearly two-thirds of the league is ranked higher than the Hawks. Personally, I think a 35-win projection is a bit harsh. Still, the road ahead of the Atlanta Hawks has been laid out. When the time comes, we’ll know just how tough the battle will be…