The 2024-2025 NBA season is simply across the nook and meaning the projections are going to be coming in for the upcoming season. Probably the most attention-grabbing groups to check out and mission for this season is the Atlanta Hawks. Most will assume that the Hawks are going to worsen just because they traded Dejounte Murray, however should you have a look at issues extra intently, there’s a actual likelihood that the Hawks are a a lot improved crew. They actually have some questions, however there are methods for the Hawks to surpass and compete for a playoff spot and a top-six seed within the East.
THE newest screenings from ESPN’s Kevin Pelton does not share the identical optimism in regards to the Hawks and in reality, they view the Hawks as one of many worst groups within the NBA. Pelton tasks the Hawks to win 31.9 occasions, which is the sixth worst document within the NBA in line with his projections. This is how Pelton got here up along with his projections, in addition to what he needed to say in regards to the Hawks.
“My annual projections mix scores from my SCHOENE projection system, adjusted plus-minus knowledge, and my guesses on rotations for every crew primarily based on present accidents.
After a dismal 12 months for the projections, which accurately predicted solely 9 out of 30 groups relative to their win totals plus/minus final season, I spent a lot of this summer season revisiting the mannequin. The large change was weighting the luck-adjusted RAPM share in participant projections, primarily based on knowledge from Krishna Narsu, utilizing minutes performed over the earlier three seasons. This adjustment, together with different smaller ones, produced higher out-of-sample leads to testing.
A key change is that win projections are not as compressed in the direction of .500. As we have a look at common wins, they nonetheless development towards common as a result of risk that groups can considerably beneath or overperform attributable to accidents and excellent seasons, however 4 groups are anticipated to win at the very least 50 video games on common after simply the eventual champion. The Boston Celtics had been final season.”
“No Jap crew outdoors the highest eight may have extra motivation to succeed in play-in than the Hawks, who owe the Spurs their unprotected first-round decide in 2025. That want must be weighed in opposition to Atlanta’s hope to develop younger expertise, together with No. 1 general decide Zaccharie Risacher, who figures to wrestle as a 19-year-old rookie.
The groups forward of Atlanta had been Boston, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Indiana, New York, Miami, Orlando, Brooklyn and Toronto.
Sure, you learn that proper. The Brooklyn Nets, whose win complete at present stands at 18.5, ought to have a greater document than the Atlanta Hawks.
Whereas it isn’t a assure that Atlanta will make the playoffs, I simply do not suppose they are going to have the sixth worst document within the league.
Trae Younger alone is sufficient to put Atlanta in enjoying territory, however the Hawks produce other expertise.
Jalen Johnson took an enormous step ahead final 12 months and a much bigger one may very well be in retailer this 12 months. They drafted Zaccharie Risacher with the No. 1 decide, Onyeka Okongwu may very well be the starter this 12 months and Dyson Daniels has two-way potential if he can enhance his capturing. I stated the Hawks’ ceiling this 12 months may depend upon the leap these guys make and it may have a big effect on their future prospects.
