Two NBA Finals contenders face off today in a matinee game as the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Los Angeles Clippers.
These teams find themselves in an interesting situation. They are both strong contenders, but neither are considered favorites to beat the best in their respective conferences.
Both teams will need to do more than the sum of their parts to beat the NBA Odds and advance to the final, and that path begins with proving it against quality competition on a day like today.
My free NBA picks for Bucks vs. Clippers on March 10, consider the strange scheduling situation around that game before offering my best bet.
Bucks vs. Clippers odds
Bucks vs Clippers Predictions
I’m starting to have a sneaking suspicion that we’re going to get to game 82 and everyone is still going to be wondering how bad the Milwaukee Bucks are.
They’re a classic Jekyll and Hyde team, capable of incredible performances that make you believe, followed by monstrous performances that make you feel stupid for trusting them. Despite putting wins on the board throughout the year, their fluctuating point differential told the story of their inconsistencies.
They looked shaky under Adrian Griffin, then terrible under Doc Rivers before the All-Star break, then had a series of convincing wins after the break.
Only now, they’re back where they started, losing a game to the LeBron James-less Los Angeles Lakers and getting blown off the court by the Golden State Warriors by 35 points, who had just been beaten by 52 points by the Celtics themselves.
THE Los Angeles Clippers have quietly had their own troubles, but nothing more disturbing than the constant drama in Milwaukee. LA started the season like gangbusters, then floundered by adding James Harden to the mix, then traveled all over the league for weeks.
While both teams have 41 wins, the Clippers’ point differential puts them well beyond Milwaukee in terms of team quality. So why are the Clippers reaching +5.5 at home? Well, it’s a back-to-back game for Los Angeles, but it’s more than that.
LA played yesterday at 1 p.m. PST while today’s match also kicks off at 12 p.m. Due to the change to daylight saving time, there will only be 22 hours between games played for the Clippers. This is generally not allowed by NBA schedulers.
The Clippers are an older team, constantly dealing with different ailments. On the face of it, this is as difficult a turnaround as I can imagine for a team like this. This is why this line has seen serious movement in favor of Milwaukee.
But I think this move is a bit off.
Although the Clippers are getting screwed here, they haven’t been as bad back-to-back as you might guess. LA is 5-5 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this year.
When these two teams played on March 4, the Bucks won 113-106 without Giannis Antetokounmpo. While obviously the Bucks are better with the “Greek Freak” playing, because of how his absence has allowed Damien Lillard to commandeer the offense, they are not as effective as one might think. The Bucks’ star duo is still far less than the sum of its parts.
A big part of the reason the Bucks were able to win last week was because Kawhi Leonard had one of its worst shooting games of the season – going 6-of-19 from the field and 2-of-8 from three.
But I don’t think there’s anything in this performance that suggests Milwaukee guarded him particularly well. He was largely defended by Jae Crowder, who lost more than a step as a perimeter defender. With a normal performance from Leonard, the Clippers win this road game.
The quick turnaround is strange and can’t be ignored, but I think this line is advanced enough now that taking Los Angeles is the game. The Clippers are the better team and they have performed well in short rest situations throughout the season.
My best bet: Clippers +5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Parlay Bucks vs Clippers in the same game
While the video of Giannis making eight straight threes in practice went viral, I was more impressed with his live shots. Antetokounmpo’s outside shooting waxes and wanes like the tides, but he’s found the best rhythm lately that I can remember.
Giannis is shooting 43.3% from deep since the start of February. While it’s admittedly low volume (and usually with little to no contesting), he’s good for at least one per game now most nights. He’s hit at least one triple in eight of his last nine games, and I also like his chances of adding one today.
Lillard has been inconsistent as a shooter this season and well below his high level for the most part. But something seems to have clicked for him since the All-Star break. Dame is shooting 40% from downtown in March and, just as importantly, his volume is back north of 10 attempts per game.
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Spread Bucks vs Clippers and Over/Under analysis
The Bucks opened as just -1 point favorites against Los Angeles, but that jumped to -5.5 overnight.
I think the way the Clippers stars complement each other is just a lot more obvious than it was for Milwaukee. Harden does a great job setting up quality shots for Kawhi and Paul George, and the floor is generally well spaced.
If things fail, then Leonard, PG, or Harden are all capable of getting a quality shot in isolation. I like their chances to generate advantages against the Bucks in the half court.
Milwaukee hasn’t been very impressed on the road this season either. The Bucks are just 11-14 ATS when favored as a road team this season.
Sunday’s total was between 227.5 and 228.5, but it has dropped like a stone since then. As of this morning, it is available as low as 222.5.
It’s no surprise that this one got so much hype. Oddsmakers have consistently overestimated Milwaukee and Los Angeles’ offense.
The Under is 18-11-1 in Clippers home games this season, while the Under is 19-12-1 in Bucks away games. At the original issue, the Under was worth a look, but not where it has fallen now.
Bucks vs Clippers betting trend to know
The Bucks are 11-14 ATS as road favorites this season. Find more NBA Betting Trends for Bucks vs. Clippers.
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Bucks vs Clippers Game Info
Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California |
Date: | Sunday March 10, 2024 |
Trick : | 3:00 p.m. ET |
TV: | Bally SoCal, Bally Wisconsin |
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