With the present firmly in their control, the Celtics (55-14) are locked in a race against the best East teams of the past. Boston, 18-2 in its last 20 games, is on pace for 65 wins, which would be the fourth record in its illustrious history and the most since its title-winning team in 2008 (66 wins). If the Celtics maintained their average victory margin of plus-11.5, they would finish as the second-most dominant East team in history, trailing only Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls 1995-96 (plus-12.2). And if they maintain their 11-game lead in the East through the end of the season, they would be responsible for the conference’s biggest runaway since LeBron James’ Miami Heat in 2012-13 (12 games ahead of the No. 2 New York Knicks).
The 1996 Bulls and 2013 Heat won championships, and the Celtics’ ruthless offense delivered an offensive rating of 122.1 — on track to be the most efficient in league history. This is textbook title or bust territory.
Snakebit Celtics fans know better than anyone how the “bust” scenario would play out, as they experienced it in the 2022 NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors and the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat. Stagnation. Sales figures. Rescue riders. Long, aimless sequences. Opposing stars such as Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler display more confidence than Boston wingers Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The fourth quarter collapses.
Whether Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and the Bucks can cancel the parade from the floor will likely define the East’s home stretch. Given Coaching change in Milwaukee mid-season and injury problems, it is a particularly thorny subject. The Celtics’ win Wednesday came with Antetokounmpo sidelined with a hamstring strain; the Bucks trailed by 21 points, came roaring back in the fourth quarter with the help of an effective zone defense and narrowly fell short in front of a nervous TD Garden crowd. Depending on one’s perspective, Boston either held a sizable lead for most of the game and conquered its late-game demons, or flirted with a familiar death against an overmatched opponent by getting completely dominated in the final period.
“[With an 18-point lead] Going into the fourth quarter, you can’t think it’s not going to be a close game,” Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said. “It was good to be in one of those games. We haven’t been there in a while. I thought from start to finish our defensive intensity was there and our offensive connectivity was there too. … You just can’t expect a team like that to disappear.”
If and when the Celtics and Bucks resume their playoff rivalry, which includes previous meetings in 2018, 2019 and 2022, the main topic of conversation will be late-game execution. Boston acquired Kristaps Porzingis, a multi-level scoring threat, last June as an umbrella to protect against the rain of bricks contested by Tatum and Brown. In the same way, Milwaukee traded for Lillard in October to diversify his offense late in the game and reduce his reliance on Antetokounmpo’s surges in traffic.
The initial results of both transactions have been impressive. Boston’s offensive efficiency in the clutch — defined as games within five points in the final five minutes — improved from 110.9 last season to 121.8 this season. Likewise, Milwaukee’s offensive efficiency in the clutch increased from 107.5 last year to 123.2 this year, edging out Boston for the best mark in the East. In turn, Boston (20-10) and Milwaukee (22-12) rank first and second, respectively, in the East in winning percentage in tiebreaker games. Newcomers Porzingis and Lillard each made their presence felt Wednesday night: the former threw down a powerful dunk with just over a minute remaining, then the latter immediately responded with a deep, vintage three-pointer.
Therein lies the case for Milwaukee’s thwarted hopes: Little separates the way the Bucks and Celtics perform in close games, and much of Boston’s lead in the standings can be explained by his brilliant 26-1 record against teams with losing records. The Bucks have racked up more bad losses, an understandable development considering they moved Lillard into a secondary role for the first time in a decade. replaced coach Adrian Griffin with Doc Rivers in January and were without forward Khris Middleton for nearly six weeks due to an ankle injury. Again, depending on one’s perspective, Milwaukee has either fallen far short of Boston’s standard of consistent excellence or has spent months ironing out predictable wrinkles before a strong final push.
“The more you find yourself in situations like this, you get better,” Rivers said. “The Celtics have that advantage right now. What have they been in, five Eastern Conference Finals [since 2017] and a final? We will get there too. We’re just going to continue to grow. You can feel the confidence in our team.
To topple Boston, Antetokounmpo, Lillard and Middleton — who haven’t played together since Feb. 3 — must accelerate their still-developing chemistry. The whole of Milwaukee’s “Big 3” needs to be greater than the sum of its parts, which hasn’t always been the case this season.
Antetokounmpo, who averages 30.8 points, 11.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game, tore up the Celtics in the 2019 playoffs and pushed them to seven games without an injured Middleton in 2022. But Boston has strengthened its front line, adding Porzingis and Xavier Tillman. to support mainstay Al Horford.
Lillard, who cultivated a big-game reputation during his 11-year tenure with the Portland Trail Blazers, has been running hot and cold during a mediocre shooting year. In a postseason matchup with the Celtics, the eight-time All-Star is expected to face the league’s deepest group of perimeter defenders, consisting of Tatum, Brown, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, putting more emphasis on emphasis on his two-man game with Antetokounmpo. Middleton, a hero of Milwaukee’s 2021 title run, emerges as the X-factor, capable of shooting from midrange and creating offense off the dribble if defenses overcommit to his superstar teammates.
With apologies to the Heat, who shouldn’t be left out even if they languish in the play-in tournament mix again, the best way to resolve the East’s ridiculously uncompetitive regular season would be a showdown between the Celtics and the Bucks. Antetokounmpo vs. Tatum, two years after their most memorable playoff clash. Lillard vs. Holiday, less than a year after being traded in a blockbuster. Middleton against an improved Brown, whose efficiency has taken a half-step forward while his volume has taken a half-step back this season.
In short, Boston highlights its historic season by proving that it can beat Milwaukee at full strength, or Milwaukee validates its bet on Lillard by eliminating the best Boston team of this era.
“No moral victories,” Rivers said. “Let’s not party tonight because we lost. But that was just the battle. We have not lost the war. [The Celtics] I won the battle tonight. The war is before us.
