Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Prediction, Odds & Player Props

February 10, 2024; Dallas, Texas, United States; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) dribbles as Dallas Mavericks guard Josh Green (8) defends during the first half at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

• The Dallas Mavericks face the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday
• Thursday’s NBA heavily favors OCK, with Luka Doncic now ruled out
• Read below for Dallas Mavericks vs OKC City Thunder predictions, odds and player props.

The Dallas Mavericks visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday night for a 10 p.m. ET tipoff at the Paycom Center. We have made our prediction for Mavs vs Thunder to help you place an informed bet on the game.

The Thunder opened as a 6.5-point home favorite, but the line jumped to Thunder -11.5 with Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic officially ruled out due to a left hamstring strain. The total plus/minus also increased from 242.5 to 234.5 points.

Let’s dive into our Mavs vs Thunder prediction, as we analyze the odds and determine the best bets (including props) to make for the matchup.

Dallas Mavericks vs. OKC Thunder odds

In Mavericks vs Thunder odds, Oklahoma City is now a big -600 favorite on the moneylinewhich gives them an implied win probability of 86%.

The Mavericks beat the Thunder 146-111 in their last meeting on February 10 in Dallas. But OKC wants revenge at home and is the big favorite to achieve it.

Odds as of March 14, 2024 on ESPN Sportsbook. Sign up for ESPN Bet bet on Mavericks vs Thunder. North Carolina bettors can visit the ESPN Bet app in North Carolina for a unique offer.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

The Mavericks (38-28) had won four games in a row to climb to 8th place in the West. However, they will be without Doncic, who leads the NBA in scoring (34.3 points per game) and usage rate (36.0%). Dallas is just 3-5 without him this season, averaging nearly nine fewer points per game.

Luka Doncic is OUT against OKC tonight.

– Brandon Rahbar (@BrandonRahbar) March 14, 2024

Doncic’s absence is a blow to a Mavs offense that ranks 7th in offensive rating (116.1) but only 21st in defensive rating (116.7). During its recent four-game winning streak, the defense has stepped up, posting a defensive rating of 106.8, tied for 3rd in the NBA. They’ll need that cheapskate D to continue without their MVP candidate.

Kyrie Irving (25.2 points per game) clearly becomes the offensive focal point. He had 23 points and 10 assists in Wednesday’s win over the Warriors with Doncic limited. Tim Hardaway Jr. (16.0 ppg) is another perimeter threat who will need to shoulder more of the scoring load.

Notable Mavericks stats and trends:

• 35-30 ATS overall, 18-13 ATS road
• 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS as an 8+ point underdog without Doncic
• Under is 2-0-1 as an 8+ point underdog without Doncic
• Under is 4-3-1 overall in games missed by Doncic

OKC Thunder betting analysis

The Thunder (45-20) are atop the West, but had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 121-111 home loss to the Pacers on Tuesday. OKC lost to Dallas 146-111 on the road in their last meeting on February 10, so they will be looking for revenge.

The Thunder were one of the NBA’s biggest surprises, leading the West 45-20 behind a balanced attack. OKC ranks 3rd in offensive rating (119.0) and 5th in defensive rating (111.3), one of only two teams in the top 5 in both categories.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game) is an NBA MVP contender and is coming off a 30-point, 10-rebound effort against Indiana. Rookie Chet Holmgren (16.8 ppg, 7.8 RPG) has had a huge impact on both ends. The Thunder lead the NBA in blocks (6.7 per game), steals (8.2) and forced opponent turnovers (15.6). They allow the 4th fewest points in the paint (46.9 per game).

Holmgren (+2500) is well behind the big favorite Victor Wembanyama (-5000) of the Spurs in the last match NBA Rookie of the Year Odds. However, he at least made it a competition for most of the season.

Notable Thunder Stats and Trends:

• 39-25 ATS overall, 26-7 SU at home
• 9-1 SU in last 10 home games
• Under is 7-1 in recent matches on March 8
• 1-4 ATS in last 5 games overall
• Over is 6-0 in last 6 against the Mavericks

Mavs vs Thunder Player Accessories

Doncic’s injury also shook up the NBA player accessories, as several players now have higher projections than earlier this morning. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest point total at 30.5, while Chet Holmgren sports the highest rebound projection (9.5).

NBA Player Accessories Ratings as of March 14 on Césars Sports betting. Raleigh punters can register at Caesars North Carolina.

Among the Mavs vs. Thunder props we’re targeting is Kyrie Irving on 3.5 makes threes. Irving is making 3.8 threes per game since joining Dallas and has taken them in six of his last eight outings. The Thunder allow the fourth-most threes per game (13.4) in the NBA.

• Pick: Kyrie Irving on 3.5 makes three (+112)

Another prop bet to target is Chet Holmgren on 9.5 rebounds. The Rookie has pulled down 9+ rebounds in three straight streaks and five of his last seven overall. The Mavs are a bottom 10 rebounding team, so the big man has the opportunity to clean the glass again.

• Pick: Chet Holmgren over 9.5 rebounds (+116)

Dallas Mavericks vs OKC City Thunder Prediction

With Doncic out, I’m backing the Thunder to win and cover the inflated spread in a lower scoring game. OKC has major advantages defensively and on the glass, while its depth shines through with SGA leading a more balanced offensive approach.

The Mavs are 0-3 in a row and 1-2 ATS as 8+ point underdogs without their star this year, with the unders going 2-0-1 in these competitions. The Thunder, meanwhile, are 9-1 in their last 10 home games and should be motivated to get revenge after the 35-point loss last meeting.

For our Mavericks vs Thunder prediction, I will take the Thunder -10.5 and the under 234.5 points. You can run this in the same game to get bigger odds. The under is 7-1 in OKC’s last eight games in March, and Doncic’s absence should help that trend continue.

DAL-OKC choice:

• OKC ATS (-10.5 on BetMGM best line)
• Less than 234.5 points (-110)

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