The Knicks had positioned themselves to challenge for the Eastern Conference’s second playoff spot with a blistering 14-2 record in January before an injury-riddled February suddenly left them struggling to avoid storylines risky play-ins.
Tom Thibodeau’s depleted team has lost eight of 12 games over the past month – with their starting frontcourt of Julius Randle, OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson all missing, and other key players intermittently missing with various diseases.
Thursday’s loss to the Warriors pushed the fourth-place Knicks four games behind the Cavaliers and Bucks in the East — with both teams in action Friday night — ahead of Sunday’s visit to Cleveland.
What’s far more pressing, however, is that teams four through eight (Miami inactive) in the East were separated by 1 ¹/₂ games at the start of March.
Here’s a breakdown of where these five teams are, with about six weeks until the end of the regular season:
Calendar
Knicks: With 12 road games among their last 22 games, the Knicks have the second-toughest remaining schedule among the five (0.502 opponent winning percentage), according to Tankathon, including a key three-game stretch starting the weekend -next weekend against Orlando and Philadelphia (twice).
76ers: The skidding Sixers will play 14 of their final 23 games outside of Philadelphia, including back-to-back games against the Knicks at the Garden starting next Sunday.
Pacers: Indiana entered Friday’s visit to New Orleans with its opponents’ highest winning percentage (.511) in this group, but the Pacers will play just nine of their final 21 games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Magic: With the NBA’s easiest remaining slate (.439), the Magic will play 13 of their final 22 games at home – a good thing for a team with a 14-18 road record this season.
Heat: The Knicks’ visit to Miami on April 2 is one of 13 of 23 remaining games the Heat will play at home. Only the Magic have an easier remaining league schedule than the Heat (.450).
Health
Knicks: Randle and Anunoby is back on the pitch but he is still waiting to be cleared for possible returns in March, while Robinson is also pushing to be back before the end of the regular season. Isaiah Hartenstein’s recurring Achilles problem also continues to be worth watching.
76ers: The declining Sixers were 4-11 without Joel Embiid (knee) entering Friday’s game against Charlotte. The reigning MVP also reaffirmed this week that “the plan” is to be back before the start of the playoffs.
Pacers: Indiana has been relatively healthy since All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton missed several games in January with a hamstring injury.
Magic: The same goes for the Magic, who are largely at full strength since the return of Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr. and Markelle Fultz after several weeks of absences earlier in the season.
Heat: The 2023 NBA finalists remained afloat despite Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo all missing at least 10 games each. Herro missed his third straight game Thursday at Denver with a knee injury.
Recent game
Knicks: As Josh Hart said, “I’m not sure what y’all expect” from the Knicks amid this rash of injuries, but they’re 3-8 in their last 11 games, with a mark net of -7.4 (24th in the league). on this section.
76ers: Without Embiid, the Sixers were even worse in that point differential metric — at -8.8 (27th) — losing eight of 12 in February.
Pacers: Recently acquired former All-Star Pascal Siakam averaged 21.3 points during the Pacers’ 7-3 stretch through Thursday.
Magic: A 6-12 skid in late January was more than offset by a 10-3 run to make All-Star Paolo Banchero and the young Magic a threat in this five-team mix.
Heat: Thursday’s loss at Denver ended a five-game winning streak, but the Heat have won 4.5 games against the Knicks since Jan. 31 with a 9-3 lead.
Key player
Knicks: Jalen Brunson has played on the verge of MVP level, but he can’t be expected to carry the Knicks without the reinforcements that a fellow All-Star (Randle) and a two-way mainstay (Anunoby) would provide.
76ers: Ditto for Tyrese Maxey, a first-time All-Star in Embiid’s absence, whose quest to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time could be pushed back another year.
Pacers: Haliburton is on pace to lead the league in assists (11.6 per game) for the first time, and the addition of Siakam provides a second 20-point scorer.
Magic: Banchero is living up to the hype of being the No. 1 overall pick in 2022 with 22.8 points per game.
Heat: Few players represent the identity of their teams more than Butler, a six-time All-Star who is shooting a career-best 44.0 percent from 3-point range in his 13th NBA season.
Conclusion
The Heat showed last year that the play-in scenario isn’t necessarily a death sentence, heading all the way to the NBA Finals after finishing the regular season as the No. 7 team in the East, then started the playoffs as the No. 7 team. 8 seeds.
Still, the opportunity to gain home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs as the fourth seed will make the next month some fascinating theater between these five teams, with the Knicks hoping to be fully healthy in time to secure that . position and avoid the very possible alternative.
