The Toronto Raptors have a decision to make regarding Davion Mitchell.

The 25-year-old is entering the final year of his rookie contract and Toronto has until Oct. 21 at 6 p.m. ET to decide whether to extend Mitchell. It’s a decision made even more complicated by the fact that Mitchell won’t have played a regular-season game for Toronto before the Raptors are forced to make that decision.

Mitchell hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations as the No. 9 overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. The former Baylor College Defensive Player of the Year was in and out of the Sacramento Kings’ rotation last season and didn’t show much offensive development. After a solid rookie campaign, the 1.88-m guard has seen his playing time decrease in each of the last two seasons. He averaged just 5.3 points and 15.3 minutes per game last year, the lowest levels of his career so far.

This is why it is so difficult to predict a contract extension before the deadline.

For Toronto, Mitchell is in a showcase year. He’ll have plenty of opportunities as the team’s backup point guard, but the addition of Jamal Shead in this year’s draft gives the Raptors another depth point guard behind Immanuel Quickley and gives Toronto options. It’s not inconceivable that Shead could leapfrog Mitchell later this season or by next season.

For Mitchell, any contract offer from Toronto at this point would be pretty low. For comparison, Payton Pritchard signed a four-year, $30 million deal before last season despite his stint in the Boston Celtics’ rotation in 2022-23. Zeke Nnaji signed a four-year, $32 million deal at the same price with the Denver Nuggets in a similar situation to Mitchell last summer. A similar deal would pay Mitchell about $7.5 million to $8 million per season to stay with the Raptors going forward.

Those numbers aren’t huge, but given how the market has changed this summer due to the league’s new collective bargaining agreement, Mitchell could be looking at a deal like that if he lands it. Precious Achiuwa, for example, was limited to a one-year, $6 million contract with the New York Knicks after failing to reach an extension with Toronto last summer. Gary Trent Jr.’s situation was even more dire, as the 13.7-point-per-game scorer was forced to sign a veteran minimum deal with the Milwaukee Bucks in order to reestablish his market next summer.

If the two sides can’t reach an agreement, Mitchell will play next season before heading to what will likely be restricted free agency next summer. Toronto can tender him a qualifying offer next summer to retain his rights and keep the option to match any contract offer he is offered.

It’s probably a safe bet that the Raptors won’t reach an agreement with Mitchell on an extension before the start of the season. For both sides, a wait-and-see approach is probably the wisest approach ahead of a season that should see Mitchell become a central part of Toronto’s bench.

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