Less than a month left in NBA regular season and while that’s when teams are supposed to get back into shape, only a handful of them can feel particularly good about themselves. Between all the injuries (Minnesota, almost every affected team in the East) and inconsistency (Dallas, Phoenix, Clippersamong other things), it’s normal to be a little confused about the current state of things.
So let’s zoom out. Instead of trying to make sense of a hot or cold streak that might make no sense, here are five stats that seem meaningful to the stretch run.
Donovan Mitchell, set the tone
THE Cleveland Cavaliers“The frequency of transitions was 3.9% higher with Donovan Mitchell on the field than without him this season, according to Cleaning The Glass. That’s a big number — LeBron James is the only NBA player to have further increased his team’s transition frequency (minimum 500 minutes).
Why is this relevant? Because the Cavs were 19th in transition frequency (14.3%) last season and 10th this season (15.4%), according to CTG. Their tendency to bring the ball up the field was far from the only reason they lost to the New York Knicks in the first round of the playoffs, but it was a problem. And Mitchell was often the one moving forward.
Cleveland made rhythm a priority in training camp and it paid off. According to CTG, only three teams were better in transition (in terms of points added per possession). Mitchell, one of the best pick-and-roll players in the league, is extremely comfortable in the half-court, but he deserves credit for pushing the ball more consistently.
It helps, with Mitchell and Garland of Dariusmany other shooters — Max Strus, Georges Niang and particularly Sam Merrill – are now actively looking to throw 3s in transition. In the playoffs, the Cavaliers’ spacing will still be imperfect when they have two big players on the court, but it will be more difficult for opponents to stop their offense.
The Pelicans, cornered
Corner 3s were not a strength of the 2022-23 season New Orleans Pelicans. They ranked 26th in frequency (7.9% of their shot attempts) and 22nd in accuracy (37.4%), according to CTG.
This season, that has changed dramatically: In corners, the Pelicans are 14th in frequency (9.7%) and 2nd in accuracy (42.6%). (These numbers are even better since the All-Star break: 10.9% frequency, 46.9% accuracy.)
This is largely due to improvement of a player. Herb Jones’ 45% mark in turn 3s isn’t as insane as, say, Jrue Vacationsis 63%, but Jones has attempted them at a much higher volume and, for someone who was considered a non-shooter until recently, that’s incredible.
But it’s not just Jones. Jose Alvarado, Jordan Hawkins, CJ McCollum, Larry Nance Jr., Naji Marshall And Matt Ryan are shooting 47% overall in the corners and each of them is shooting at least 42% individually.
It’s not an accident. Before the season started, coach Willie Green said New Orleans needed to raise your attack and brought the old Charlotte Frelons coach James Borrego to do just that. The Pelicans have built an unconventional offense around their one-of-a-kind franchise player, Zion Williamson. Yet much of their offensive improvement (10th this season, 20th last season) is due to simple things: spacing the floor, pressuring the rim, forcing the assist and finding corner shooters. Brandon Ingram is seventh in the league in total corner 3s assisted and Williamson is 14th, according to pbpstats.com.
The magic formula always includes FTs
Yes, fouls have decreased lately. But getting to the free throw line remained an essential part of the job. Magic of Orlandothe identity of. The Magic had a free throw rate of .298 (that’s FTA/FGA) before the All-Star break and since then it’s fallen to….271.which puts them virtually on par with the Memphis Grizzlies for the highest rate of this period.
In a way, free throws have become a bigger advantage for Orlando recently. Before the All-Star break, in addition to generating a ton of free throws, the Magic were giving up a ton of them – their opponents had a free throw rate of .277, the 26th highest number in the league. However, since the All-Star break, Orlando’s opponents have a free throw rate of .231, which is right in the middle of the pack.
Since the break, the Magic have gone 11-3, going 10-2 when they have a higher free throw rate than their opponent and 1-1 when they don’t.
Paolo Banchero, Orlando’s best player and best foul shooter, saw only a slight decline in attempts. Before All-Star, he had a 40.5% free throw rate and averaged 10 free throw attempts per 100 possessions. After the All-Star, he had a free throw rate of .387 and an average of 8.8 per 100. (For comparison, Damien Lillard of the Milwaukee Bucks averaged 10 identical free throw attempts per 100 possessions before All-Star, with a free throw rate of 0.436. Post-All-Star, Lillard is averaging 6.7 from 100, with a free throw rate of .276.)
Conventional wisdom suggests that teams that rely heavily on the free throw line will struggle in the playoffs when calls are harder to come by. These numbers don’t guarantee that Orlando won’t experience this, but they are encouraging. So far, at least, the Magic’s opponents have had a harder time adjusting to the new normal than they have.
An all-defense candidate in New York
Nearly 85% of regular season, New York Knicks center Isaiah Hartenstein is still the league leader in estimated defensive plus-minusaccording to dunksandtrois.com. I’m not saying Hartenstein has been the best defender in the NBA, but it’s not some kind of weird statistical fluke either.
Hartenstein was supposed to be the Knicks’ backup center, but Mitchell RobinsonThe ankle injury in December was a game changer. Through the first 10 games of the 2024 calendar year, the best stretch of Hartenstein’s career, he averaged 8.7 points, 14.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.9 steals and 2. 0 blocks in 36.1 minutes while holding down the paint for a team that was suddenly dominant defensively. post-OG Anunoby exchange.
Since then, neither Hartenstein nor New York have been at that level. He missed time with an Achilles injury and after returning, said he wanted to be there for the team but “probably could have stayed out a few more weeks.” After playing more than 38 minutes five times in January, Hartenstein hasn’t played more than 28 minutes in a game since the All-Star break. But he’s been successful lately – 13 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, two steals and a block at Golden State; seven points, 14 rebounds, three assists, a steal and four blocks against Sacramento – and the rim protection was always there.
This is significant for several reasons. Now that Robinson, who was better than ever before his injury, is about to return, the Knicks could have 48 minutes of elite rim protection and rebounding in the playoffs. And when it comes time for voters to cast their ballots, Hartenstein deserves a serious look at All-Defense.
The Wemby effect
Victor Wembanyama he probably won’t win defensive player of the year — as he says, Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert can have it one last time – but it’s present a legitimate case. The easy answer to “DPOY shouldn’t come from a team that is currently 15-54 and 23rd in defensive rating” is “It’s not Wemby’s fault.”
In Wembanyama’s last 30 matches (i.e. from January 10), the San Antonio Spurs allowed 108.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, which is slightly better than the Minnesota Timberwolves’ league-best defense (both over this span and over the season). Over the same span, the Spurs have allowed 118.8 percent with Wembanyama off the field, which is slightly worse than the league’s 28th-ranked defense, both over that span (the Los Angeles Lakers) and depending on the season (Atlanta Falcons).
The Wemby effect is barely less extreme over the season: 111.1 points allowed per 100 possessions with him on the field, 120.1 without him. And while those on/off numbers can be misleading — shot-stoppers are often off the court when the opponent’s best player is off the court and the opponent’s 3-point shot often accounts for most of the differential — these match what you see when you watch San Antonio: Wembanyama is a huge deterrent and he makes defensive plays that would be impossible for anyone else.
Generally, it’s true that rim protectors don’t have much of an impact on an opponent’s 3-point shot (other than incentivizing the other team to attempt more difficult 3-point attempts when they cannot reach the basket). In this case, however, I’m not convinced it’s random. Wouldn’t you expect your opponents to shoot at a sub-3 percentage with Wembanyama on the court? His fences are not normal fences. He blocks the 3!
That’s not to say Wembanyama should necessarily earn DPOY over Gobert, whose team has held opponents to 106.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the court. The rookie, however, is not expected to be let go due to his team’s shortcomings and he earned first-team defense.
Looking for more NBA coverage? John Gonzalez, Bill Reiter, Ashley Nicole Moss and special guests dive into the league’s biggest storylines daily on the Beyond the Arc podcast.
