Two teams that recently appeared in the NBA Finals will share a court Tuesday night. The Golden State Warriors (36-34; 36-32-2 ATS) and the Miami Heat (39-32; 34-36-1 ATS) meet at the Kaseya Center at 7:40 p.m. EDT. These teams met in December, with the Heat winning 114-102. This time they can accommodate. Can Golden State get revenge?
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Who are the warriors?
They are hot then cold. They are only one game ahead of the Rockets for 10th place in the Western Conference. Golden State claims to want a title this season, but may not even be a play-in team. The Warriors, in the middle of a long road trip, are a mess and time is running out this season. Any success that might come this week starts with the 11th highest ranking in the league. offensive note. The Warriors are sixth in shooting efficiency at the rim and ninth in three-point percentage (on the second most attempts per game). This team is also third in offensive rebound percentage. Golden State’s flaws include a turnover percentage that is 21st in the league and a ranking of 24th in free throw attempts per game. Let’s see what version of the offense appears in South Beach.
On the other hand, the Warriors are 18th in defensive rating. Their last five opponents have averaged 118.6 points per game. Golden State allows the lowest percentage of field goal attempts, yet ranks 26th in successfully defending them. Meanwhile, the team allows a lot of three-pointers but is 10th in three-point defense. Golden State is 23rd in turnovers per game, 22nd in free throw attempts allowed and 11th in defensive rebounding percentage. Can they make enough saves to win this one?
Miami tries to get hot
The heat, eternally damaged, have won four of their last six matches before this one. They are trying to climb to sixth place in the Eastern Conference. Eighth in defensive rating, getting stops is how the Heat overwhelms the competition. This defense has a top-10 turnover percentage, defensive rebounding percentage, and free throw rate. Like the Warriors, they don’t allow many shots at the rim but are only 27th in stopping them. Miami gives up a lot of three-point attempts (24th) but is 12th against them. Will this strategy work on Tuesday?
Reversing Miami’s offense, they are 27th in points per game and 23rd in offensive rating. No team in the NBA takes fewer shot attempts at the rim, and no team takes more mid-range shots on average. This is why the Heat are 18th in true shooting percentage. Surprisingly, this club is only 24th in offensive rebounding percentage. They may be 10th in turnover percentage and eighth in free throw rate, but that’s not enough to be consistently competitive.
Out – Kevin Love, Tyler Herro
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Rating:
This Miami team, which is at home, is playing better basketball right now. They are solid against three-point shooting, which includes holding the Warriors to 8-33 in December’s win. That, along with forcing turnovers, will be key to the Heat slowing down Golden State’s offense.
When the Heat have the ball, they should get to the free throw line often against the Warriors defense. Miami has the fifth-best free throw percentage in the NBA. Along with that, Miami’s midrange approach pairs well with a Warriors defense that struggles to defend those areas. Roll with the Heat to win at home.
Prediction: Miami Heat +110
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Rating:
Like the first match, this one should finish under the total. It starts with the host Heat being 29th in pace. As the second slowest team in the NBA, they should put this game into focus.
Next, neither attack shoots much at the rim, where efficiency tends to be highest. On the defensive side, these are the two best teams at deterring opponents from the edge. Easy buckets won’t be a thing for most of this game. Expect the underside to hit comfortably.
Prediction: Under 219