The NBA offseason is currently at a standstill, and barring a surprise trade that significantly changes teams, the rosters for the upcoming season are set. That means we can now start projecting where teams will finish the season and how they stack up against other teams. A few days ago, a panel of ESPN experts released their Eastern Conference projections, and here’s how they see things right now:
1. Boston Celtics: 61-21
2. New York Knicks: 53-29
3. Philadelphia 76ers: 52-30
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: 50-32
5. Milwaukee Bucks: 49-33
6. Orlando Magic: 47-35
7. Indiana Pacers: 46-36
8. Miami Heat: 45-37
9. Atlanta Hawks: 31-51
10. Chicago Bulls: 30-52
11. Toronto Raptors: 26-56
12. Charlotte Hornets: 21-61
13. Brooklyn Nets: 22-60
14. Detroit Pistons: 20-62
15. Washington Wizards: 17-65
They projected the Hawks to be in the play-in tournament again, but with just 31 wins. They are 14 games behind the Miami Heat (8th) and 16 games behind the Orlando Magic (6th). That is a really big gap, even bigger than the one the Hawks were in last year, where they finished 10 games behind the Heat for 8th place. So the question is, are the Hawks really that far behind those teams? I’m going to say no.
Where I think there is a significant gap is at the top of the Eastern Conference. Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland and Milwaukee are much better than the Hawks and I would be surprised (barring injury) if the Hawks finished above those teams. Orlando, Indiana and Miami are the teams that, if things went well for Atlanta, could pull off an upset and finish ahead of one of those teams. There are usually one or two teams from the previous year that end up disappointing the following year and one of those teams will underperform this year.
While I don’t consider the Hawks to be a top contender in the Eastern Conference, I think they are underrated right now. I think the Dejounte Murray trade is a plus for this team and they have a roster that makes more sense and fits better with Trae Young. They have also proven that they can rely on veterans in Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, Larry Nance and Clint Capela. I think a big part of the Hawks’ season is going to come down to the growth of the young players on their roster. Can Jalen Johnson make an even bigger leap than he did last year? Can Dyson Daniels be a reliable starter next to Trae Young? Can Onyeka Okongwu take a big step forward? What kind of impact can No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher have in his rookie year? Can Kobe Bufkin stay healthy? These are all big questions for the Hawks, but I think many of them could be successful. Johnson is going to be the Hawks’ No. 2 option now and is going to have to be even better, which I think he can do. Daniels was impressive in the Olympics and while he can shoot the three-pointers well, his defense is what the Hawks need next to Trae Young. Risacher should benefit from playing with Young Trae. I think Young is poised for a huge season and should keep the Hawks’ offense running smoothly as he has the ball in his hands most of the time.
I don’t think the Heat are 14 games better than Atlanta. Could Miami finish ahead of them? Sure, but I highly doubt they’ll lap the Hawks like ESPN is predicting. They probably got worse this offseason by losing Caleb Martin and they haven’t been a good regular-season team the last two seasons. Jimmy Butler is getting older and has trouble staying healthy. Terry Rozier couldn’t stay healthy last year either. If they’re lucky health-wise, the Heat have been good every time Butler, Rozier and Bam Adebayo have been on the court together, but that’s a big “if.”
Orlando and Indiana made big strides last year, but we’ve seen in the NBA that teams that overachieve and then have higher expectations the following year can disappoint. The Hawks are a good example. After their run to the Eastern Conference Finals, Atlanta has been ranked no higher than 7th. Orlando signed Kentaviousn Caldwell-Pope, but they still have a hole at point guard and their offense will still be average to below average. The defense will be elite, but will the offense keep them from seeing massive improvement? It’s possible.
Indiana made it to the Eastern Conference Finals, but they got lucky. They faced beat-up teams like Milwaukee and the Knicks before getting swept by Boston. Defense could still be an issue, and this is a team I think could be set up to disappoint this year.
It’s possible that all of these teams finish ahead of the Hawks, but not by much. I think Atlanta is much closer to being the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference than being out of the play-in race as ESPN projects. I’d be pretty surprised if the Hawks only won 31 games and finished that far behind the other teams in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference.
