Almost everyone who follows basketball expects that San Antonio Spurs The Spurs will be better than last year. It’s hard to do worse after a 22-60 record in 2023-24. There are, however, good reasons to be optimistic. Victor Wembanyama is coming off a dominant rookie season and enters this year as a top-20 (conservative). Veteran additions like Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes will not only help the Spurs on the court, but will also teach the young players how to win off it.
Narratively, it’s not hard to imagine an improved San Antonio team. how Will they improve? What areas of the game will they improve in? Last season, the Spurs were 26th in the league in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating. They need to improve in many areas if they hope to compete for a play-in spot as many expect. The following are areas where the Spurs can make a big leap next year.
Three point shot
San Antonio was 28th in the NBA in three-point shooting last season. They have struggled to make three-pointers for two straight seasons. It has hurt their offensive efficiency and prevented their best player from being as lethal as he could have been. Spurs general manager Brian Wright recognized this and acquired some shooting this offseason. Paul and Barnes both shot over 37 percent from three-point range last season. Inserting them into the starting five alongside Devin Vassell should pave the way for Wembanyama.
These additions should almost certainly help the Spurs’ three-point shooting. Another factor is a positive regression toward the mean for some players who fell off last season. Zach Collins shot 37.4 percent from three in the 2022-23 season, then made just 32 percent of his shots from deep last season. Can Keldon Johnson get close to his 2021-22 season at 39.8 percent from three? Tre Jones shot 42.1 percent from three after the All-Star break. If that jump were real, the Spurs should have two reliable playmakers.
San Antonio still has a lot of non-shooters. Jeremy Sochan and Stephon Castle have to prove they can make shots at a near-consistent rate. Even Wembanyama has a ways to go as a three-point shooter. The Spurs are already in a better position than they were last year with their shooting personnel, and a few things could swing in their favor to make their improvement even greater.
Turnovers
The addition of the “point god” does wonders for organizing an offense. Last season, the Spurs struggled mightily with turnovers, turning the ball over 15.1 times per game. It wasn’t uncommon for San Antonio to turn it over 20 times in a game. That should change with Paul at the helm.
Paul had a 6-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio last season. He’s one of the best point guards of all time. Even in his late 30s, Paul has continued to be a savant with the ball in his hands. He should have a significant role as the primary initiator of this offense. Jones, who is the backup point guard, should help keep the bench unit on track when Paul sits.
One of the major variables is Wembanyama’s ball security. Last year, the rookie turned the ball over 3.7 times per game. Maybe he’s learned to play at the NBA level. Maybe his size and ball and passing skills will allow him to turn over a lot of balls. Either way, reducing the number of turnovers by your primary scorer by one or two times per game would help the Spurs’ offensive efficiency immensely.
Defense perimeter
Wembanyama solves a lot of defensive problems. Arguably the NBA’s most impactful defender, he effectively blocks the paint with his blocking prowess. On the perimeter, the Spurs have left a lot to be desired. Opponents shot 37.3 percent of their three-pointers against San Antonio last season. They often lost cutters or died on screens, which allowed perimeter players to get into good position.
This season, the Spurs will have a better defensive lineup across the board. Paul is older but a smart defender with good hands. Barnes brings a veteran presence but can’t be counted on to defend one-on-one. Castle was one of the top defensive prospects in the draft and should make an immediate impact in his minutes. Combine that with the growing defensive skills of Julian Champagnie, Jones, Sochan and Vassell, and the Spurs should have stronger defenders around Wemby.
Shooting quality
With better offensive players and more veterans, comes better shooting. Fans shouldn’t expect CP3 to be the main player dissecting defenses every night in the pick-and-roll. However, he should help put the younger players in position to succeed. I’m really excited to see Vassell and Sochan operate off the ball with Paul leading the offense. The CP3-Wembanyama pick-and-rolls will be one of the most fun plays in the NBA this year.
The bench should also function much more efficiently. Jones and Champagnie are important additions to the second unit. Johnson has a lot to prove and is primed for a breakout season. I have no doubt Collins will bounce back from his struggles in 2023-24. Castle is a great glue player to place wherever the offense needs him, and can put pressure on the basket. The Spurs have more offensive weapons and a more balanced team that should lead to a more efficient offense this season.
