The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers aren’t the rivals they were in the early 2010s, but they’re still on a roll today. Two years ago, the Heat reached the Eastern Conference Finals and the NBA Finals, while this year, the Pacers reached the conference finals.
Despite these recent successes, both teams were lower in the Eastern Conference standings last year than those highs would suggest. Even with multiple playoff wins in recent years, the Pacers finished sixth in 2024 while the Heat were eighth for a second straight year. Both teams are trying to figure out how to make their playoff successes a regular occurrence and a regular season fixture.
The Heat have struggled to make those moves this offseason. They’re an expensive group and they’ve struggled with injuries the last two seasons. How can a team like that, with limited resources to improve and new salary cap rules holding them back, improve while maintaining the same core?
The answer is marginal. Miami couldn’t do what the Cavaliers did and change their head coach. They couldn’t do what the Bucks did and get a bunch of quality players at minimum salary. Instead, the Heat chose to make the most of their limited environment. They drafted Kel’el Ware in the middle of the first round, and he was very impressive during summer league. They added Alec Burks in free agency after he had a great postseason with the New York Knicks and added a few other smaller pieces along the way. But the rest of the team’s major moves were re-signing their own players.
For the Heat, success will instead depend on the health of their best players throughout the year. Jimmy Butler, the head of the snake in every way for the Heat, missed a lot of time last season. He hasn’t played more than 65 games in a season since 2017-18. Bam Adebayo is usually rock solid, but he can’t do much without Butler available. Tyler Herro, another of the Heat’s best players, also missed a lot of time last year, and if he could play more, it would also help Miami a lot. Terry Rozier, their key acquisition from last season, also missed time after the Heat signed him.
While Miami was trying to repeat their 2022 Finals run, they failed to do so largely because of their health. They simply didn’t have the ammunition to win every night. That’s why they won just 46 games and had a lot of trouble in the first round against the Boston Celtics.
Still, their offseason still looks a bit underwhelming, Burks could play a bit of a backup for Miami. Ware looks solid, and maybe he’ll be the backup center. But the Heat haven’t added much talent elsewhere. What does this team look like when it all comes together? Do they actually have enough talent to move up in the East? They were just one win away from the fifth team last year, and they could very easily use more help. But they’re also getting older, and they also have a lot of players who clearly aren’t worth their contracts. Will it eventually come to a head for this team?
That’s what the Heat will have to figure out this season. The Pacers, who finished a win ahead of them and are hoping to see other teams fall out of the playoff race, will be happy that the Heat didn’t improve much, if at all, this offseason.
Miami could be a team that Indiana leapfrogs again if the Pacers try to repeat last year’s success. Until the Heat take a big step forward, either in Butler or by adding another mega-talent to the roster, they won’t be considered better than they have been. They look like a team that could win 45-50 games and try to make the play-in. They’ll be about where they are heading into the season.
