Charlotte Hornets fans are hungry for success. With both the Panthers and Hornets struggling in recent years, positive vibes are in short supply. The new energy within the Hornets organization has been warmly welcomed, but vice president of basketball operations Jeff Peterson has a tough decision to make: Win, but don’t win. Also a lot.
The Hornets owe their 2025 first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs, after sending it to New York in the Kai Jones trade (wow). The silver lining is that the pick is lottery-protected, meaning the Hornets will keep it if they finish outside of the playoffs (and not just the play-in). That protection is especially crucial for the 2025 draft, which features generational talent Cooper Flagg, as well as at least five other players who, according to Sam Veceniewould have been selected first overall in the 2024 draft.
Based on Vegas’ win total (29.5), keeping their pick shouldn’t be a problem for Charlotte. But by the same token, would Hornets fans be happy with being a sub-30-win team again? Hornets fans’ patience is wearing thin, they expect significant progress, and another potentially injury-plagued season won’t be a valid excuse, even if it were a valid one.
Based on Vegas’ projected win total (29.5), keeping their pick shouldn’t be a problem for Charlotte. However, if Vegas is right, will Hornets fans be satisfied with another sub-30-win season? Their patience has been tested and they expect significant progress. Another injury-plagued season will no longer be a valid excuse, even if it is a valid one. Neither winning nor losing at an extreme level seems optimal, leaving a very narrow path to “absolute” success that looks like this:
Starting the season strong and contending for a playoff spot would be a good start for the Hornets. Taking a page from Danny Ainge’s playbook, the team could make moves similar to the Utah Jazz: trading older veterans at the trade deadline for valuable assets, then focusing on developing younger players to finish the season. That strategy could secure an 11th or 12th seed in the East, with 32-36 wins and the 6th-9th best lottery odds.
“We will be patient owners committed to building our team the right way. There will be no easy solution and we recognize that it will take a lot of work from many people. We are focused on developing the right processes and structure for sustainable success. We promise that we will do everything we can to make the most thoughtful decisions for the long-term health of the franchise.”
– Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin
In this scenario, the team’s stars would have established themselves, veterans would have excelled in their roles, and young players would have made significant progress. Deviating from this narrow path would risk either alienating the fan base or jeopardizing the team’s future potential.
One argument against the argument that a playoff appearance would be a negative is that if the Hornets did make the playoffs, it would mean that their young stars, LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, have played at an All-Star level. In that case, the team might not “need” another young talent from the lottery.
Orlando, Oklahoma City and Indiana are recent examples of young teams that have made surprising strides in a single season. These teams have proven that not having a top-five pick has not hindered their progress. If the Hornets can follow that trajectory, the excitement and momentum of a playoff berth could outweigh the benefits of holding onto a lottery pick.
Every fan’s perspective on this question. Season ticket holders and die-hards who live and die by every win or loss (most die) will be willing to sacrifice a first-round pick for a season of success. Those who are more aloof and strategic in their fandom will likely prefer to take the “optimal” route by holding onto the pick and moving forward in 2025. The moves made this summer and the tone of the owners suggest the team is leaning more toward a patient approach. But how would fans react to a midseason tank job after starting the season with a taste of success? It could be a bitter pill to swallow.
MORE HORNETS STORIES ON SI
JT Thor signs two-way deal with Eastern Conference opponent
NBA 2K25 Notes for Every Member of the Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets draft picks throw out first pitch during game against Knights
What does a successful season look like for the Charlotte Hornets?
