Kentavious Caldwell-Pope eyes repeat as contract option looms

MINNEAPOLIS – The Nuggets no longer need a physical prop to represent their championship aspirations, so Kentavious Caldwell-Pope plans to cut back on a 2023 tradition.

When he was the only player on the team to win a championship, he brought his Lakers ring to Denver’s home playoff games as a symbol of motivation for his teammates. This year it’s different. “Everyone has one,” he pointed out last weekend. The Nuggets have proof of their potential. The services of this 2020 ring will not be as necessary.

But Caldwell-Pope’s services will be more crucial than ever. Offensively, he is the fifth starter among the five most stable starters in the NBA. Defensively, he is the backbone of the backcourt, guarding each opponent’s best guard. In the deep, talented West, he’s responsible for controlling superstars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards and Steph Curry. When the Nuggets ended Boston’s perfect record at home, Michael Malone mimicked Caldwell-Pope’s minutes with those of Jayson Tatum. “The KCP has an indomitable will,” said Aaron Gordon.

He also takes Bruce Brown’s place as the most looming question mark regarding the Nuggets’ future. Last summer, their sixth man declined a $6.8 million player option to enter free agency. This summer, their fifth man has a $15.4 million player option in his two-year contract. Caldwell-Pope’s cap hit for 2023-24 is $14.7 million.

“It’s getting hard not to think about it,” Caldwell-Pope told the Denver Post. “But right now, for me, it’s just about trying to get to the playoffs, trying to win another championship, whether I have a player option or not. It’s the least of my concerns. It’s just about trying to play high-level basketball, regardless of your teammate.

With the Nuggets appearing poised for another deep playoff run, Caldwell-Pope is expected to decline his player option as early as March and attract a robust market, according to league sources. His point of view ? Discussions on a contractual decision “will have to wait until the end of the season”.

Pulling out would not necessarily mean leaving Denver. The Nuggets will still try to keep Caldwell-Pope on the 2024-25 roster. But as was the case with Brown last year, it will depend on a variety of factors: who wins the championship, how the market develops afterward, what Caldwell-Pope’s priorities are if he is highly sought after and how much where does the luxury tax go? Denver is ready to spend. The payroll for 2023-24 is already $4.7 million lower than the current second apron, a new CBA demarcation which imposes sanctions on teams that have surpassed it for more than a year.

If they lose Caldwell-Pope, the Nuggets should be willing to consider all options, including an offseason acquisition to fill his spot or an internal promotion. General manager Calvin Booth drafted players such as Christian Braun and Peyton Watson, knowing that future championship seasons could come at a cost to starters like KCP. Ideally, Braun can become a capable starting goaltender. He’s already a promising wing defender coming off the bench, but his two-way play may not yet be consistent enough to make the jump.

Regardless, retaining KCP would be the best-case scenario for Denver. So what will it take?

One name that comes to mind as a recent reference is that of one of his former teammates.

Danny Greencirca June 2019, was a reliable 3-and-D specialist who had been the fourth or fifth starter for several championship-winning franchises.

Green was on an expiring contract in 2019 when he won his second title. He was 31, and about to turn 32. (Caldwell-Pope turned 31 in February.) In his lone season with Toronto, Green started 80 games and 20 more in the playoffs, with averaging 10.3 points, four rebounds, 1.6 assists and 0.9. stolen. He shot a career-high 45.5% from 3-point range on 5.4 attempts per game.

In 2022-23, Caldwell-Pope has started 76 games and 20 more in the postseason. He averaged 10.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.5 steals. He shot a career-high 42.3% on 4.2 attempts from three. His durability and scoring have remained similar this season despite a drop in volume and 3-point efficiency (39%).

This is obviously not a perfect comparison. Green had a bit more length than Caldwell-Pope. He contributed a little more to the rebound. Most notably, he had an All-Defensive Team appearance on his resume. Caldwell-Pope does not do this, although he has made a commendable course this year with the help of his teammates in the campaign.

Still, the numbers and player profiles are similar enough to warrant a closer look. Green was signing a four-year contract with an average salary of $10 million. In 2018-2019, this represented approximately 9.8% of the league salary cap and 7.3% of his team’s payroll. He was Toronto’s fifth-highest paid player, as Caldwell-Pope currently is in Denver.

Green’s excellent season and Raptors championship catapulted him to a two-year, $30 million contract with the Lakers. Its ceiling value increased to approximately 13.4% of the 2019-20 salary cap and 11.9% of the Lakers cap. He became the third highest paid player on his team.

Caldwell-Pope’s current salary is equal to 10.8% of the 2023-24 league cap and 7.9% of Denver’s payroll, valued slightly higher than Green’s $10 million in 2019. (The difference that needs to be understood here is that Green’s contract was a longer-term deal with higher total revenue, signed at the time Spurs.)

If Caldwell-Pope’s value against the cap increased by 3.6% like Green’s, using the current cap projection for 2024-25 of $141 million, that would hypothetically put his next salary at around $20.3 million on a short-term deal similar to Green’s with Los Angeles. A reasonable number could be lower than that depending on various factors, such as KCP’s decreasing 3-point percentage or the aforementioned lack of an All-Defense nod. Other organizations could also be careful to scrutinize free agents who benefited from sharing the floor with Nikola Jokic. Caldwell-Pope’s minutes coincide with Jokic’s more than any other pair of players on the roster.

On the other hand, Caldwell-Pope is notably egoless in terms of his desire for punches. His attempts have declined for two straight years in Denver without scrutiny or controversy, an indicator of how easily KCP can blend into his precise role.

And teams value championship contributions and experience. If the Nuggets repeat, or even make the NBA Finals again, Caldwell-Pope’s two years in Denver coinciding with two Finals appearances would likely make him attractive to other suitors. There are certainly contenders with more cap space to play with, including the Philadelphia 76ers. Remember, Indiana paid $22.5 million per year for Brown after he came off the bench in Denver.

With months remaining until the June 29 player options deadline, one can only speculate. Caldwell-Pope, understandably, doesn’t have the energy for that. He spends too much every night chasing All-NBA opponents around screens.

It’s a task that requires more consistent effort and intensity than other roles. This is why he is admired by his teammates and trusted by the coaches. Caldwell-Pope says his past championships haven’t affected his full-throttle approach to the regular season.

“I’m always a person that, at the start of the season, it’s a new season, and my mindset is just to try to continue to win championships,” he said.