When the Miami Heat selected Jaime Jaquez Jr. with the 18th overall pick in the 2024 draft, there was a general feeling that the team had taken a safe bet. Jaquez played four years in college, and a player with that much experience under his belt is generally viewed as a finished product rather than a future star. Scouting reports, such as this one NBA.com’s projected him as a role player.
Looking back on his rookie season, when Jaquez averaged nearly 12 points, four rebounds and three assists on a 49-32-81 shooting percentage that earned him a First Team All-Rookie nomination, it’s safe to say he’s outperformed his draft position. (He’s also earned one of the most epic nicknames in recent memory: Juan Wick.)
Despite this, Jaquez still does not seem to be considered a rising star by the general public. Jaquez has not made The Ringer’s Top 25 Under 25 Listbut it’s a conversation he belongs in.
I would argue that being an elite shot creator is what makes an NBA player a star. With the exception of a few standout defensive players (see: Bam Adebayo), the ability to consistently create offense is what separates role players from the best. For that reason, I’m going to focus on Jaquez’s shot creation ability, and why his potential to be great at it gives him a chance to become a star in the future.
Basketball Index defines a plan creator As a player with a high isolation rate, creating your own shots within the offense is a key skill. I would add that to be an elite shot creator, a player must be able to create shots for his teammates, not just himself.
For Jaquez, I looked at what he showed in his rookie year, both as a scorer and as a playmaker, to see if he can one day become a star-level shot creator.
Jaquez’s shot distribution is a positive indicator of an effective scorer and, more importantly, he has shown an ability to create those shots himself. Cleaning the window40 percent of his shots were made toward the basket, and he made 65 percent of his shots. Jaquez averaged more than three unassisted field goal attempts toward the basket per 75 possessions, which puts him in the 80th percentile among all players, per Basketball Index.
His next most used area was the short to mid-range zone, which involves shooting from 4 to 15 feet away from the basket. About a third of Jaquez’s shots came from this area, which might not seem ideal for his efficiency, but he made those shots at a 47 percent clip (79th percentile).
He rarely takes long mid-range shots (only 3% of his total attempts), so the fact that many of his attempts come from mid-range is not a problem. More than half of Jaquez’s mid-range shots have been unassisted, further demonstrating his ability to create chances on his own.
Another encouraging sign was the skill with which he drew fouls. Jaquez was in the 86th percentile in foul rate, earning a trip to the line on 11.3 percent of his shot attempts, via Cleaning the window.
Putting all these numbers together, there is a clear path for Jaquez to become a great NBA scorer. The fact that he is already capable of creating points himself has to do with the rim (and convert at a rate above the league average) is impressive for a beginner.
Of course, to be star-caliber in those areas he’ll need to improve his efficiency to elite levels while doing so at a much higher volume, but the signs are there.
Looking at every game last season in which Jaquez took at least 15 shots — though that’s a small sample size of just nine games — he averaged 20 points and nearly five assists and six rebounds in those games, while shooting 52 percent from the field.
The second part of the shot creation equation is being a good enough passer to make plays for his teammates. All of the attributes I outlined above will allow Jaquez to collapse defenses and create an advantage for his team.
Once the advantage is created, it is essential to have the will and basketball IQ to know when to shoot or pass to an open teammate.
That willingness to make the right play might just be Jaquez’s most underrated strength. Cut Moorhead of MiamiHeat.com has an excellent article on Jaquez That highlights his ability to read the game. Coach Erik Spoelstra praised the rookie, saying: “He’s got that quality, whatever it is. He’ll make the right play. He’s not like a lot of young players who are either too fast or just looking to score.”
If Jaquez sees an open teammate, he doesn’t hesitate to give him the ball. He passed the ball to a teammate on 42 percent of his attacks, ranking in the 65th percentile, according to Basketball Index.
It’s not just the willingness to make plays that counts. Jaquez has a knack for reading the defense and finding the open man.
Spoelstra also praised him for that, saying: “A lot of young players are role models. They either think they’re going to get in there and shoot or they try to do what the game plan says and don’t understand what’s going on. He has a certain composure that allows him to be aggressive and read the defense.”
For any talented creator, the importance of being able to read a defense on the fly cannot be understated. The fact that Jaquez has shown flashes of that kind bodes well for his future.
At this point, the biggest question mark regarding Jaquez’s game is his three-point shot. The three-point shot, one of the deadliest shots in basketball, was not a part of his game at all as a freshman.
Basketball Index He was in the 17th and 19th percentiles for three-point shooting and three-point shot creation, respectively. Due to his ability to create three-point shots at the rim and from close range, as well as his high basketball IQ, Jaquez doesn’t need to be an elite three-point threat to become a star. However, I see this as something that, if significantly improved, could significantly increase his ceiling.
Make no mistake, Jaime Jaquez Jr. East A shot creator. In his first season, he has already shown that he can create his own shots at above-league-average levels, as well as make the right play once he breaks down a defense. The question is whether he can become an elite shot creator that would put him on an All-Star level.
Considering that this will only be its second season and that Jimmy Butler is still around, we’ll probably have to wait a few more years before we get a definitive answer to that question. Don’t be surprised if Juan Wick continues to exceed expectations.
