Every regular season game LeBron James has played over the past 13 months has brought a new benchmark.
Every point he’s scored since breaking Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s NBA career points record February 7, 2023 is a career point never before reached.
Now, he’s on pace to reach 40,000 career points, just nine fewer after scoring 31 Thursday night in the Los Angeles Lakers’ overtime victory over the Washington Wizards.
This staggering number raises two questions: how many points will James finish his career with? Is another player capable of reaching 40,000 points?
When asked during All-Star Weekend how many seasons he had left, James, 39, didn’t have a definitive answer, but he said, “I know there aren’t many.”
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He’s on pace to play 71 games this season (which would be his most since 2017-18), score around 1,800 points and enter the 2024-25 season with around 40,500 career points. Playing 60 games per season over the next two seasons and scoring 23 points per game, James would surpass 43,000 points.
Let’s take a look at other players who have a chance to overtake Abdul-Jabbar for second on the all-time scoring list and players who could surpass 30,000 career points and reach 40,000:
Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns
Heading into Thursday’s game against Houston, Durant has 28,318 points and will likely reach 30,000 next season. He is one of the most talented scorers in football and remains so at 35 years old, averaging 28 points on 53% shooting from the field this season. Five years ago, Durant scored around 1,800 points per season. It seemed likely that he would surpass Abdul-Jabbar’s 38,387 points and even attempt to beat James. But the Achilles injury he suffered in the 2019 Finals forced him to miss the entire 2019-20 season. He only played in 35 games in 2020-21, 55 in 2021-22 and 47 games last season. Injuries have kept Durant, who is closing in on No. 8 on the all-time points list, from scoring much more.
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
Earlier this season, Doncic became the sixth-youngest and seventh-fastest player to score 10,000 career points. At just 25 years old and in his sixth season, he has 10,855 career points after Wednesday’s game against Toronto. He’s averaging a career-high and league-best 34.4 points, and he’s hitting career-highs on 3s and from the free-throw line. There’s no doubt that Doncic is a scoring phenom (he’s also a wonderful passer) and has a career average of 28.5 points. How long can he continue to score at least 30 points per game and will his heavy workload eventually take its toll? He hasn’t played more than 72 games in a season and that was his first year. As prolific as Doncic is, consider the task ahead of him just to reach 38,000 points: Playing 66 games each season while scoring 30 points per game over the next 13 seasons still doesn’t allow Doncic to reach 38,000. With more games played per season and a career spanning 20 years, he has an outside chance of flirting with 40,000.
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Wembanyama, the sensational French rookie, is averaging 20.6 points and is off to a good start. His scoring average should increase from season to season, but much like Doncic’s example, it requires longevity and greatness over two decades. An average of 28 points while playing 70 games per season for 20 years equals 39,200 points. In this equation, 40,000 points seems almost impossible. And remember, James entered the league at 18 when the age rule was different. It’s 7 p.m. now and there’s no sign that’s going to change any time soon.
James Harden, Los Angeles Clippers
Durant and James are the only two active players in the top 20 in all-time points. Harden is No. 22 with 25,600 points after Wednesday’s game against the Lakers. Another prolific scorer, Harden, 34, has a strong chance of reaching 30,000 points, which would make him the ninth player to reach that mark, assuming Durant gets there as well. Harden is averaging 17.3 points this season, his lowest since his third year in the league in 2011-12. His 25+ days are over, but 30,000 makes him one of the top 10 scorers of all time. But getting to 33,000 and ahead of Michael Jordan’s 32,292, who is No. 5 all-time, illustrates how difficult it is.
Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors
Like Durant, Curry, 35, is still finding success at this point in his career, averaging 27.5 points this season. And like Durant, Curry had injuries. He only played five games in 2019-20. And for all of Curry’s scoring, he’s No. 31 on the all-time list with 23,198 points. If he plays four more seasons and averages 25 points per game in 70 games per season, he will reach 30,000.
Follow NBA reporter Jeff Zillgitt on social media @JeffZillgitt
