A Western Conference game is scheduled for Monday evening when the Memphis Grizzlies (24-47, 13th in the East) faces the Denver Nuggets (50-21, 2nd in the West). Memphis is coming off a road win over San Antonio 99-97, outright winning as a 6.5 point underdog. The Nuggets are also coming off a road win, beating the Blazers in Portland 114-111, but fell short as 10.5-point favorites. This is the third of four matchups between these teams this season, with the Nuggets holding a 2-0 lead in the series. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 a.m. EST from the Ball Arena in Denver.
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Out of the race
The Memphis Grizzlies recently joined the Spurs and Blazers as West teams eliminated from the playoffs. They have lost four of their last five games, but come into this matchup with a win having just defeated the Spurs on the road. This game will end a four-game road trip for the Grizzlies, as they lost at Sacramento and Golden State before playing at San Antonio. Against the Spurs, they were led by Jaren Jackson Jr. with 28 points in the victory.
The Grizzlies currently have ten players listed on their injury report on ESPN. The best player that will definitely be available for this game is Jaren Jackson Jr., he is averaging 22.6 PPG and 5.5 RPG. Jackson has scored 25 or more points in each of his last three games. Santi Aldama is a productive 7’0 forward, he averages 11.1 PPG and 5.8 RPG, and has the ability to hit the three or score in the post. GG Jackson is an athletic 6’9 forward with 13.4 PPG and 3.8 RPG, coming off a 35 point game in their recent loss to the Warriors. The roster will depend on Desmond Bane’s ability to play, he is currently listed as a playing time decision due to a lingering back injury.
Jon Konchar is a shooter who started on the wing last game, and they started Jordan Goodwin, a second-year player from Saint Louis, to run the point. Memphis is ranked last in the league in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency according to dunksandtrois.com. They play at the 17th fastest pace in the NBA.
Injury Report:
Questionable: Desmond Bane
Out: Marcus Smart, Ja Morant, Vince Williams Jr., Luke Kennard, Lamar Stevens, Brandon Clarke, Derrick Rose, Ziaire Williams.
Nuggets beat rookies
Denver is coming off a win against the Blazers in their last outing, but that’s not what made the headlines. Portland started five rookies in the game, only the second time that’s happened since the NBA began recording these types of statistics 50 years ago. The Nuggets played without Jokic or Murray, but still won behind 23 points from Reggie Jackson and 22 from Aaron Gordon.
Jokic and Murray are both listed as questionable for this game, which would leave Michael Porter Jr. as their top scorer. He’s averaging 17.0 PPG and 7.0 RPG, he had 31 in a win over the Knicks and 26 in a win over the T-Wolves over the last three games. Aaron Gordon is a reliable forward who can step up his game when the stars are out, he’s averaging 13.8 PPG and 6.8 RPG, and is coming off a 22-point game. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope starts at both and is averaging 10.0 PPG over 65 starts. Reggie Jackson replaced Jamal Murray last game and is getting 10.0 PPG and 3.7 APG this season.
The Nuggets started DeAndre Jordan last game, while Jokic was out. Jordan only gets 4.2 PPG, but can still impact a game with his length and rebounding. Christian Braun and Collin Gillespie played the most minutes off the bench against the Blazers. Denver is ranked 7th in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency. They play at the 26th fastest pace in the NBA.
Injury Report:
Questionable: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Jalen Pickett
Absent: Zeke Nnaji, Vlatko Cancar
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The Nuggets still have injury issues with Jokic and Murray, they are listed as questionable, but if there is ever a perfect game to rest them, it will be against these Grizzlies. Denver could sit one, or both, of their stars in this game, which will give Memphis the chance they need to keep this game close. Denver sat Jokic and Murray last game against Portland, the Blazers started five rookies and the Nuggets only won by three. This spread is now 14.5, which is way too high. The Grizz will still have a young star playing in Jaren Jackson Jr., and they can still find talent on their roster. GG Jackson is a rookie who just dropped 35 points on the Warriors, and Santi Aldama is a 7-footer who can score from multiple levels. The Grizzlies have covered three of their last four games and will continue to exceed expectations here.
Take Memphis and the points from it.
Prediction: Memphis +14.5
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The NBA recently adjusted its officiating, letting more plays go to the rim and leading to fewer free throws as free throws have decreased. This figure is an overreaction to change. Denver’s totals all year have been closer to 220 and 230, as the defending champions can always find ways to score. Even with the change, the Nuggets have gone over the total in their last three games, and the Grizzlies have gone over in four of their last five games. Denver doesn’t play very fast, but that’s usually because of Jokic, if he’s out they’ll play a lot faster. Both teams have conceded overs in recent times, and that’s not a difficult figure to cover.
Take over.
Prediction: Over 214.5
