Two Eastern Conference contenders are set to face off on Wednesday night. The Miami Heat (37-31; 32-35-1 ATS) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (43-25; 34-34-0 ATS) face each other for the third time this season. They split the first two meetings, with the road team winning each time. Considering this game is at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, does that bode well for the Heat. At 7:00 p.m. EDT, the world will find out.
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Missing pieces in Miami
The Heat are currently shorthanded, resulting in five straight losses against non-Pistons opponents. Tyler Herro (knee) and Kevin Love (heel) are out, while Duncan Robinson and Nikola Jovic are questionable. Health has been an issue for Miami all season, hence their 23rd place finish in offensive note. The Heat are 18th in true shooting percentage despite having the second-lowest percentage of field goal attempts at the rim and the 23rd-highest efficiency. This team is 24th in offensive rebound percentage. Miami is 11th in turnover percentage and fifth in free throw percentage. Can they get back on track?
Meanwhile, Miami’s defense allows the fourth fewest points per game. They are ninth in defensive rating. The Heat are 10th in forcing missed three-pointers, although they give up the 24th most attempts. This defense is 26th in defending the edge, but second best team in deterring enemies from getting there. The Heat allow the third fewest free throw attempts, rank third in defensive rebounding percentage and eighth in turnover percentage this season. Let’s see if they win again in Cleveland.
The Cavs are coming
Donovan Mitchell (27.4 points per game) joined Evan Mobely and Max Strus as key inactives for the Cavs on Monday, although they still won. Unfortunately, Mitchell’s absence lasts at least a week, so Cleveland won’t have its leading scorer for this game either. The team is 17th in offensive rating, so that’s bad news. Cleveland is 13th in true shooting percentage thanks to solid efficiency from all three scoring levels. The Cavs are 19th in turnover percentage and 22nd in offensive rebounding percentage. They are 26th in free throw attempts per game. This is a group that is just trying to collect enough points to win right now.
Caris with a block in times of crisis ???????????? Have a night!#Let them know | @cavs pic.twitter.com/Q91rF8I9MB
– Bally Sports Cleveland (@BallySportsCLE) March 19, 2024
Fortunately, Cleveland is third in defensive rating, so they don’t need to score a lot of points. Their defense allows the sixth minimum per contest. The Cavs are in the top 10 in forcing misses at all three scoring levels. They are 11th in defensive rebounding percentage and free throw attempts allowed. Cleveland is a middle-of-the-pack team that forces turnovers. Will this defense allow the team to advance next week?
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Best bets for this game
Full Game Side Bet
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If there’s a silver lining to the fact that Donovan Mitchell has missed some time lately, it’s that the team has learned to survive without him. Cleveland’s defense is fierce and should give Miami offensive nightmares all night, especially with Herro out. In addition to forcing misses, the Cavs will harvest the most defensive rebound opportunities.
Scoring won’t be easy for Cleveland, but Darius Garland should create and attempt plenty of three-point looks against Miami’s defense. The Heat won’t force as many turnovers as usual against the Cavs. Expect Cleveland to not only win again, but beat the spread against Miami on Wednesday.
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5
Total choice of the complete game
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This total is simply too low. Without or without Mitchell, Cleveland is averaging 107.3 points in its last eight games, surpassing 100 points in each. The Heat should get Jimmy Butler back for this one, and they’re averaging 105.7 points per game in March. On Wednesday, the score will be low, but not 203 points in total.
When these teams met in Cleveland earlier this season, the game ended with a total of 225 points. The most recent match had 210 total points. This game will follow that trend, surpassing 203 points. That’s enough to take over.
Prediction: Over 203
