If NBA referees really make a concerted effort to call fewer fouls, Nuggets coach Michael Malone didn’t notice.
“I don’t see it,” he said Tuesday night, “because we never get rude calls. I don’t really see it. I didn’t notice any difference.
Data shows fouls committed and free throw attempts have declined across the league in recent weeks. The more lenient officiating has been widely interpreted as a direct response to the trajectory of offense versus defense throughout the sport this season. Public attention to the gradual erosion of defensive freedoms came to a head in late January, after Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid engaged in 70-point duels four days apart. Malone has long been walking in the procession of disgruntled coaches. “There’s no defense in the NBA right now,” he said after Doncic and Embiid’s historic performances.
As it turns out, search for NBA writer Tom Haberstroh indicates that this week could have been a turning point.
A rolling average of points per 48 minutes over five games peaked at 117.3 on Jan. 26, the night Doncic lost 73. Then scores around the league plummeted in late February to a rolling average of 109 points per 48 minutes over five games. This trend coincided with a 10% drop in shooting at the free throw line between January and February. According to Haberstrohfouls per 100 possessions were 20% lower in February compared to November 2023.
Malone has repeatedly pointed out that NBA rules have increasingly protected and favored offense over the years. But he and the Nuggets also regularly wonder whether this trend has been fairly applied to their franchise player, Nikola Jokic. Malone and the organization have had a number of conversations with the league about how Jokic’s unique, methodical and physical post-play style is officiated. Opposing defenders, especially small guards facing him in gimmick coverages, often test their luck with referees by increasing Jokic’s physicality.
The two-time MVP has been ejected twice this season after challenging non-calls.
So, from Malone’s perspective, there can be no discernible drop in reported fouls if no fouls were reported in the first place.
“I know the league and (president of basketball operations) Joe Dumars in particular, a former player, are doing their due diligence to find: OK, the score is getting a little out of control,” Malone said. “So how much do we want to bring him back to allow the defense to have more of a chance? Because if you look at the last 20 years, most of the rules that have been implemented have been pro-crime. We all understand why. It’s a company. And you want to keep the audience. You want people to come to matches to see the best players in the world playing at the highest level.
“But I think it’s great to have that ongoing discourse, to see, ‘OK, where is the game?’ Where is it going? And are we comfortable with that?’
Entering their highly anticipated rematch with the Celtics on Thursday (8 p.m. MT, TNT), the Nuggets are ranked 23rd in the league with 18.3 fouls per 48 minutes. They are 28th in free throw attempts per 48 with 20.2. While their ball movement system doesn’t invite referees to constantly send them to the charity stripe – Denver is near the bottom of the league in drives, pick-and-rolls and transition frequency – their Jokic’s use inside tells a different story.
The Nuggets have the highest post-up frequency in the NBA at 8% (8.7 possessions per game), but they rank 22nd in free throw frequency on those post-ups (14.6%).
Jokic is 14th among individuals with 5.3 fouls per game this season, while fellow MVP contenders Giannis Antetokounmpo (8.5), Luka Doncic (7.0) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6.6 ) are respectively first, third and fourth for zero faults. Joel Embiid comes in second.
“It’s normal,” Jokic told the Denver Post in November. “It seems like some guys are getting better calls. Some guys aren’t. And that’s normal. And some guys can say a little more. Some guys can’t. And that’s normal. I accept it.”
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