The most brilliant genius in the world picks up the phone. He’s about to change the world. He has a phrase that will reverberate through university halls for generations. This will be GOOD.
“Boy, I’m really glad you’re not the general manager of the Houston Rockets! “.
A hundred quote posts or more!
All joking aside, there are a lot of armchair GMs on the internet. Some of them are better than others. Recently, many of them are saying that the Rockets should have kept Jarrett Allen. It seems that Allen himself wishes that were the case.
Should the Rockets have kept Allen?
Where were the Rockets in 2020?
Allen then had a contract that was expiring. THE Cleveland Cavaliers would continue to retain him for $20 million per season. It seems likely that Rafael Stone was not interested in adding this type of deal to the books early in a rebuild.
Especially with Christian Wood on the ledger. Here is a first simple argument in favor of retaining Allen. We can assume that Stone chose Wood over Allen. Wood rarely plays 20 minutes in a given game, and Allen is a defensive anchor. Allen is much better than Wood (and he’s younger too), so the Rockets made the wrong choice.
This seems like an oversimplification. At that time, we didn’t know that Wood treated defense like a petulant child treats asparagus. It’s hard to properly spot a guy who comes from the worst team in basketball. Wood looked like a potentially impactful defender on the court. Detroit Pistons because he blocked shots. They were losing, because obviously they were.
It seems likely that Stone preferred a wide stretch over a traditional rim runner. Wood could be a true utility player if he didn’t live in a reality where he was a Wilt Chamberlain/Michael Jordan hybrid.
In a vacuum, choosing Wood over Allen was a mistake. Contextually, Stone was in the early stages of a holistic teardown and made a philosophical choice regarding floor spacing. Regardless, it’s a moot point:
Neither would start for the Rockets in 2023-24.
Would the Rockets have drafted Alperen Sengun if they had kept Allen?
It’s also worth noting that Allen wasn’t a fringe All-Defense guy in 2020. He showed promise on defense. Brooklyn netsbut it broke out on the Cavaliers.
In an alternate universe, it breaks out on the Rockets. Would that have dissuaded them from recruiting Alperen Sengun?
We do not know it. We can’t know. If we’re willing to assume the Rockets wouldn’t have made their nightly trade for Sengun, it’s easy to justify trading Allen.
Let’s go back. Stone avoided adding a potentially foundational player to the roster on an expiring deal. He didn’t want to add a big, $20 million-a-season defender to a roster filled with teenagers and fringe NBAers. Who knows? A dynamic game with star potential could be unleashed on draft night.
However, there will be valid counter-arguments here too. The Rockets had to keep Allen because he was valuable. They could have traded him down the line. Allen would have surely landed them a first round pick.
What if I told you that Allen already landed them a first-round pick?
The Rockets (sort of) traded Allen
There seems to be a misconception that the Rockets simply let Allen slip away. This is not true. The Cavaliers made the Harden deal because they wanted Allen. They sent the Rockets the Milwaukee Bucks‘Unprotected 2022 first-round pick in trade.
Could the Rockets have gotten more for Allen if they had kept him and later flipped him? It’s possible. It would also have been a difficult needle to thread.
It’s an argument within an argument. Some said keeping Allen would have made it harder to tank. Others have suggested that you can sit Allen all the way to maximize losses.
Let’s assume that Allen doesn’t like to sit. Now you have an unhappy player and you are trading with less leverage. Simply put, there are too many assumptions at play here. The Rockets could have traded Allen for two freshmen; they could have exchanged him for a first protégé. Ultimately, they got him an unprotected first-round pick.
They would later trade Eric Gordon for the right to trade that same pick to the Los Angeles Clippers. The Rockets used this pick to select Cam Whitmore. Let’s take a look at the current status of the deal if we put together everything that’s happened so far.
Out:
James Harden, Jarrett Allen, Eric Gordon
In:
Tari Eason, Cameron Whitmore, 2024 first round pick (BKN), 2025 first round pick (trade – BKN), 2026 first round pick (BKN), 2027 first round pick (trade – BKN)
Is it worth it? We do not know. Pick 24 will almost certainly land in the lottery. Even after all these years, the Rockets are at the mercy of ping pong balls.
If that choice ends up being Alexandre Sarr? Bottom line, folks: the Harden trade was a success. What if it ends up being Tidjane Saluan? We’ll have to see what Saluan looks like. Hopefully pick 25 is Cooper Flagg.
This is a parenthesis. Does it look better?
Out:
James Harden
In:
Jarrett Allen, Tari Eason, 2024 first round pick (BKN), 2025 first round pick (trade – BKN), 2026 first round pick (BKN), 2027 first round pick (trade – BKN)
There are so many ways to frame this. It’s like an LSAT question. Somehow, the Rockets traded Allen and Gordon for Whitmore. Is it good?
This also remains to be determined. Whitmore surely has a lot more upside than Allen. He has undeniable star potential.
At the same time, Whitmore averages about one assist every now and then. He needs to be more willing to share the ball, otherwise he projects as a sixth man moving forward.
Is he worth the Allen price?
The Rockets made a choice – like it or not
A lot of this comes down to your own principles. The Rockets’ rebuilding process has been an all-encompassing, top-down teardown.
Some fans would have done it differently. They would have preferred to keep Allen and shut him up while they wasted time. They would have drafted Sengun anyway because he was the best player available, and they would have moved Allen when he started to emerge.
This is all perfectly reasonable. Yet, like any hypothesis, this plan relies on certain assumptions. We don’t know if Allen would have become a troubled asset if being a healthy scratch wasn’t his bag. Besides, we don’t know if Allen would have even shown his value with the 2020-21 Rockets. It would have been a little more difficult to anchor a defense with Anthony Lamb and Mason Jones on the floor.
Ultimately, Stone opted to add an additional first-round pick to the war chest instead of holding on to a high-end role player because of salary. For a team in the Rockets’ current position, it’s better to have a wing with high-scoring potential than to have a top-tier player – at least, in my opinion.
