Only Western Conference opponents have wins at TD Garden this season, can Dallas join the list? The Mavericks and Celtics close out their regular season series tonight on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET. I did a Same Game Parlay to make things a little more interesting.
Visit our NBA Pick page for side and total predictions for the rest of Friday’s games, including the second part of the doubleheader between the Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls.
Now for my SGP bet!
DAL Mavericks +9.5 points difference (-110)
Kristaps Porzingis over 1.5 threes made (-184)
Jaylen Brown over 22.5 points (-106)
Parlay same game odds: +488
DAL Mavericks +9.5 points difference (-110)
Dallas finishes a 4 game road trip in Boston tonight against the best team in the league and I think they are capable of keeping this game close. I know the numbers strongly point to a Celtics win here, but I have confidence in Luka Doncic. On Wednesday, he celebrated his 25th birthday with another masterful performance of 30 points, 11 rebounds and 16 assists in an 11-point victory in Toronto. Before this game, the Mavs suffered a tough loss in Cleveland on a buzzer-beating three from midfield, at some point the luck has to turn in their favor.
The Celtics picked up where they left off before the All-Star break, winning all 3 of their games since the break by double digits. They also won the first game of the season by 9 points on the road, but they couldn’t do much against Doncic as he filled the stat sheet with 33 points, 18 rebounds and 13 assists . Kyrie Irving always gets up to play against his old teams, I expect no less tonight when he hears the boos from the TD Garden faithful. Dallas is 8-2 SU/ATS in their last 10 games overall and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 visits to Boston. I considered them 9.5 point underdogs.
Kristaps Porzingis over 1.5 threes made (-184)
Backing Porzingis to drain a pair of threes in a game is one of my favorite bets this season. The Latvian had a near-perfect February where he made 2 threes in all but 2 of his games. He finished the month shooting 41.9% from downtown, which is pretty impressive for a player from her size. Playing against a former team is always a motivator for KP, he is averaging 23.6 points per game in his last 5 games against the Mavs, while draining at least 2 threes in all but one of those games. It’s also worth pointing out that Dallas is in the worst standings in the league, shooting 42.3% threes over their last 3 games. With this type of defense, Porzingis should have very little problem making a few threes here.
Jaylen Brown over 22.5 points (-106)
He may not have a productive left hand, but even without it, Brown has caused serious problems for Dallas’ defense in recent meetings, scoring over 30 points twice in the last 3 games against them. He is at nearly 24 points per game in the last 10 games, this is mainly due to the Mavs’ weaknesses on the defensive end at Brown’s position. Neither Luka Doncic nor Kyrie Irving will blow you away with their performance on that front, they are more focused on scoring the ball and keeping the Mavs in the game. I expect Brown to take advantage, he has crossed that line 6 times in the last 8 games against Dallas. Jayson Tatum is the true leader of this team, but Brown is right behind averaging 22.4 points per game at TD Garden this season. In his last 2 games against the Knicks and 76ers he has scored 30+ points, after seeing him score 34 earlier in the season against Dallas I expect his production to remain consistent here.
