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Zach Kram
An unexpectedly aggressive, however expectedly entertaining, NBA Finals have reworked from a best-of-seven to a best-of-three, because the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder alternated wins within the first 4 video games.
Lately, they’ve even alternated successful kinds, too. The Thunder led most of Recreation 3, however the Pacers surged forward with a giant fourth quarter, and Oklahoma Metropolis pulled the identical comeback trick in Recreation 4.
By way of 4 video games, the 2 groups are separated by simply six factors, and so they may very well be headed for the primary Finals Recreation 7 for the reason that conflict between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors in 2016. Upfront of a pivotal Recreation 5 (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC), listed here are seven performs which have outlined the ways and narratives of the 2025 Finals, explaining how the sequence reached 2-2 and the place it could be headed.
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
Let’s begin in Recreation 3, when the Pacers took one in every of their favourite ways to the intense. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s pick-and-rolls have set the stage for a pleasant game-within-a-game within the Finals. The Pacers harried him in Recreation 1, so Oklahoma Metropolis tweaked its screening ways in Recreation 2, setting extra picks excessive up the court docket to open house for the league MVP.
Then, Indiana responded, denying Gilgeous-Alexander the ball. If he does not have possession, it does not matter the place the Thunder would like to display screen for him. By way of Recreation 2 of the Finals, Gilgeous-Alexander had introduced up the ball on 61% of the Thunder’s possessions when he was on the court docket, in accordance with an evaluation of GeniusIQ monitoring knowledge.
However in opposition to Indiana’s intense full-court stress in Video games 3 and 4, that proportion dropped by half, as SGA introduced up the ball on simply 30% of the Thunder’s possessions in every recreation. That is a serious change of tempo for Oklahoma Metropolis’s offense: Out of 342 video games that Gilgeous-Alexander has performed over the previous 5 seasons, these had been his second- and third-lowest percentages.
After Indiana’s first made shot of Recreation 3, Andrew Nembhard denied Gilgeous-Alexander the inbounds move, stopping him from initiating Oklahoma Metropolis’s offense. And although that first possession nonetheless produced a bucket for Williams, SGA by no means touched the ball.
Most of the time, that setup is a win for Indiana — like on this possession halfway by way of the primary quarter of Recreation 3, when Oklahoma Metropolis’s most gifted offensive participant did not contact the ball and an out-of-control Williams dedicated a turnover.
General, the Thunder are averaging 122 factors per 100 half-court possessions within the Finals when Gilgeous-Alexander brings up the ball, versus simply 107 when he is on the court docket however does not convey up the ball, per GeniusIQ. That is not the entire story.
Not mentioning the ball might assist Gilgeous-Alexander keep away from early fatigue, setting him up for higher luck in crunch time, as was the case in Recreation 4. But it surely helps illustrate why Indiana’s middling protection has slowed the Thunder, who had the No. 3 offense within the common season.
Recreation 4, third quarter: OKC commits a shot clock violation
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
Going through a rising deficit in entrance of a frenzied Pacers crowd, Oklahoma Metropolis known as a timeout to regroup. However that plan failed. After Alex Caruso introduced up the ball — due to Nembhard’s continued denial of SGA within the backcourt — Isaiah Hartenstein‘s handoff was virtually a turnover, then Nembhard stonewalled Gilgeous-Alexander’s try to isolate within the midrange.
Ultimately, with the shot clock winding down, the ball deflected out of bounds, and after one other deflection of the inbound move, Indiana compelled a violation.
This possession illustrates Oklahoma Metropolis’s sudden lack of offensive circulation. It is astonishing how a lot the Thunder have relied on robust one-on-one scoring on this sequence, versus rhythmic playmaking as a crew. The three lowest-assist video games of Oklahoma Metropolis’s season are:
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Recreation 4 of the Finals: 11 assists.
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Recreation 1 of the Finals: 13 assists.
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Recreation 3 of the Finals: 16 assists. (The Thunder had greater than 16 assists in each regular-season recreation besides Recreation No. 82, once they had 16 with all their starters resting.)
That is an enormous shock to OKC’s system, because the crew averaged 27 assists within the common season and 25 within the playoffs till the Finals. In Recreation 4, Gilgeous-Alexander did not have an help for the primary time in 5 years.
Recreation 4, fourth quarter: Aaron Nesmith fouls Gilgeous-Alexander
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
Although Nesmith was the Pacers’ key defender within the Japanese Convention finals, as he had the best success guarding Jalen Brunson, Indiana prefers Nembhard to protect Gilgeous-Alexander. Nembhard has matched up in opposition to Gilgeous-Alexander on 187 possessions within the Finals, per GeniusIQ, versus 119 for the remainder of the Pacers mixed.
The outcomes present why. Out of 27 defenders who’ve guarded SGA for at the least 10 matchups this postseason, his three highest points-per-matchup figures are in opposition to non-Nembhard Pacers: Bennedict Mathurin (0.89 factors per matchup), Nesmith (0.73) and Myles Turner (0.73). For comparability, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored solely 0.33 factors per matchup in opposition to Nembhard.
Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be getting his typical share of factors within the Finals (32.8 factors per recreation, versus 32.7 within the common season), however Nembhard is making him work lots tougher for them than anybody else.
These numbers may mirror a small pattern, however down the stretch of Recreation 4, the Thunder geared their offense towards shifting Nesmith onto Gilgeous-Alexander as a substitute. Oklahoma Metropolis — which generally asks its guards to set essentially the most picks within the league — repeatedly despatched Gilgeous-Alexander to display screen for Williams, who was being guarded by Nesmith, to coax Indiana right into a change.
Gilgeous-Alexander set 5 picks for Williams within the fourth quarter of Recreation 4 — tied for essentially the most in any quarter of their careers enjoying collectively, per GeniusIQ. The opposite time was the fourth quarter of Recreation 4 in opposition to the Dallas Mavericks in final yr’s playoffs, one other must-win recreation for the Thunder. They clearly belief this motion in determined moments.
Towards Indiana, these 5 performs produced glorious outcomes because the Thunder accomplished their comeback: a layup, a 3-pointer, two taking pictures fouls (which led to Nesmith fouling out) and an open midrange jumper that he missed. The Thunder evened the sequence, and Gilgeous-Alexander scored essentially the most factors within the final 5 minutes of a Finals recreation (15) since 1971.
Recreation 1, first quarter: Pascal Siakam makes a layup
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
Indiana’s first made subject objective of the Finals showcased one benefit for the Pacers: Siakam is just too massive and too adept at ending to modify a guard onto him. Cason Wallace is a superb perimeter defender, however on this play, he could not provide significant resistance as Indiana acknowledged the mismatch, cleared out one aspect of the court docket and let Siakam go to work.
Siakam, who gained a title with the 2018-19 Toronto Raptors, leads the Pacers within the Finals with 18.8 factors and seven.8 rebounds per recreation, and he is contributing 1.8 steals and 1.3 blocks. He is on tempo to turn into the twelfth participant this century to common 18/7/1/1 within the Finals, becoming a member of an elite record: Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan (twice), Dwyane Wade (twice), Kevin Garnett, LeBron James (3 times), Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Andrew Wiggins.
But it surely’s Siakam’s capability to overwhelm smaller defenders on the block that has had a lot affect on the Finals. It isn’t simply that it permits Siakam to generate simple buckets, that are uncommon in opposition to this traditionally nice Thunder protection. It is also that Siakam compelled Thunder coach Mark Daigneault to vary his recreation plan. For Recreation 4, Daigneault reinserted Hartenstein into the beginning lineup, changing Wallace to present the Thunder extra dimension.
The Thunder’s double-big lineup opens holes elsewhere, although, as a result of it reduces Oklahoma Metropolis’s pace on the ground — which is important when countering Indiana’s high-octane assault. The Pacers are well-rounded sufficient that they drive trade-offs from their opponents, and Siakam, together with his capability to run the ground and energy by way of defenders on the rim, is the epitome of that power.
Recreation 4, third quarter: Nembhard makes a 3-pointer
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
The Thunder allowed essentially the most nook 3s this season, and the Pacers have taken benefit. On this play, some intelligent Tyrese Haliburton head and ball fakes created an open search for Nembhard. However NBA groups attempt to keep away from serving to off the strong-side nook — as a result of this kickout move can be simple for any guard, not to mention the playoff chief in assists per recreation.
The Thunder are extra aggressive with this type of assist than different groups. Normally, that is to their profit and so they have the personnel to make it work, however Indiana has twisted the Thunder’s tendencies in opposition to them. The Pacers are 25-for-52 on nook 3s (48%) within the Finals, versus 27-for-87 (31%) above the break. Nook pictures account for practically half of their 3-point makes on solely a couple of third of their makes an attempt.
For comparability, Oklahoma Metropolis has matched Indiana with 27 above-the-break 3s, however has gone solely 11-for-33 from the corners. That disparity has granted Indiana 14 extra 3s general, or 42 additional factors from past the arc.
Indiana’s scorching taking pictures from the corners possible will not regress a lot because the Finals proceed. All through the postseason, the Pacers are taking pictures 47% on nook 3s. That is one of the best mark for any crew (minimal 100 makes an attempt) for the reason that Phoenix Suns shot 48% from the corners within the 2009-10 playoffs.
Recreation 3, first quarter: Obi Toppin makes a layup
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
So, if the Pacers are producing some mismatches, even in opposition to the Thunder’s ferocious protection, and are feasting on nook 3s, then why is Indiana scoring simply 109.8 factors per 100 possessions within the Finals, after topping 116 within the earlier playoff rounds?
This bucket offers a touch. It was the results of a dynamite play from Haliburton, who intercepted a move, created a 3-on-2 quick break and tossed in a sprinkle of razzle-dazzle as he went behind the again in midair and located Toppin chopping to the ring.
However this sequence stands out, partly, due to how absent that open-court verve, which defines Indiana’s offense, has been in these Finals.
Over the postseason, the Pacers have scored 127 factors per 100 probabilities in transition, versus simply 102 factors per 100 probabilities within the half court docket, per GeniusIQ. Amongst groups that superior at the least one spherical, solely the Minnesota Timberwolves had a bigger hole, so it is essential for Indiana to run.
That is simpler mentioned than executed in opposition to Oklahoma Metropolis. Transition play has accounted for 11% of the Pacers’ probabilities in opposition to Oklahoma Metropolis, per GeniusIQ, versus 15% within the first three rounds and 16% within the common season. Indiana was one of the vital frequent transition groups earlier within the playoffs however has fallen to the underside of that statistic in opposition to the Thunder.
Minnesota adopted the same sample: The Timberwolves had an above-average transition charge within the first two rounds, however a mere 11% transition charge in opposition to the Thunder within the convention finals. That is a giant motive the Timberwolves’ offense sputtered and Oklahoma Metropolis reached the Finals, and it is why Indiana is struggling to attain greater than ever.
Recreation 2, second quarter: Indiana loses the ball out of bounds
Preview for tomorrow’s piece, earlier than Recreation 5 pic.twitter.com/CdJ3UchN0N
— Zach Kram (@zachkram) June 16, 2025
Haliburton does not have the fame of an isolation grasp, however his numbers inform a unique story. Over the previous three seasons, Haliburton leads all high-volume gamers with 1.16 factors per isolation that leads on to a shot, turnover or foul, per GeniusIQ. (SGA is second, 0.002 factors per iso behind Haliburton.)
That effectiveness largely continued by way of the convention finals. However in opposition to Oklahoma Metropolis, the Pacers have scored simply 0.50 factors per Haliburton isolation. It is a small pattern, however an vital one, as a result of a number of of Haliburton’s failed isolations got here as Indiana’s offense stalled down the stretch of Recreation 4.
On this play from Recreation 2, Haliburton failed to seek out a gap in opposition to Chet Holmgren in house, finally forcing a move that trickled out of bounds for a turnover. Haliburton has maneuvered previous Holmgren for contested layups a few occasions within the sequence, however this early play presaged his issue attacking any Thunder participant by himself.
Whereas Oklahoma Metropolis and Indiana boast two of the deepest rotations within the league, this carefully contested Finals could be determined in crunch time by Haliburton and Gilgeous-Alexander, and whether or not they can beat their man one-on-one. In Recreation 1, SGA missed a midrange jumper, and Haliburton took benefit with a recreation winner.
In Recreation 4, Gilgeous-Alexander tormented Nesmith down the stretch whereas Haliburton squandered a few essential isolation alternatives, letting the Thunder again into the sequence and setting the stage for a livid best-of-three to complete the 2024-25 season.
