Welcome to the latest edition of our Covers NBA notebook. This week we’ll look at the irony at the bottom of the West, the tight race at the top and the possible impacts of Kawhi Leonard’s back spasms. Let’s go!
LeBron may owe the NBA an apology
Remember when LeBron James said whoever invented the Play-In tournament “should be fired”? Ah, the irony.
The Play-In Tournament is keeping the Los Angeles Lakers’ season afloat this year, and it will be the third time in four years they’ve participated, but likely the first time they would have missed the playoffs entirely without it. .
Los Angeles is three games behind the Sacramento Kings in 6th place in the West, and the Kings hold the tiebreaker against the Lakers thanks to Domantas Sabonis“continued domination of Anthony Davis. Los Angeles can hope to maybe catch the Dallas Mavericks at 8th in the West, 2.5 games behind, but once again, the Lakers lose this tiebreaker.
Los Angeles seems doomed to be one of the teams added to the playoffs by a premise that LeBron once thought should cost work. And in this place, the logic has not changed since the All-Star Break, the Lakers risk missing the playoffs.
Tonight’s best NBA bets
Buy on bad news, sell on good news. This may be this basketball bettor’s favorite gambling axiom. That’s actually a fancy way of saying “disappear the audience.” The world hears Devin Booker returns to the Suns lineup and trusts Phoenix. He hears Kristaps Porzingis is sidelined due to hamstring strain and Jaylen Brown is questionable with a hip bruise and then doubted by the Celtics. It overreacts to these thoughts.
Boston opened as a 4.5-point favorite Wednesday night, with the line climbing as high as -6 Thursday morning, then redeemed at -5.5 or -5. The correct number was probably -6, a number influenced by savvy bettors before the public reacted to injury updates. None of these injuries were really newsworthy. They were known.
Shrinking the Celtics’ spread gives Booker, Porzingis, and maybe Brown way too much confidence. Less than a week ago, Boston was a 5.5-point favorite at Phoenix and won by 10. Booker and Porzingis didn’t play; Brown did it.
These same lineups would have theoretically created a -9.5 or -10 advantage for Boston tonight at home. Does the addition of Booker and possible removal of Brown justify a five-point swing?
Best bet: Celtics -5 (-112 to DraftKings)
Again, buy on bad news and sell on good news. Luka Doncic is absent for the Mavericks tonight, inflating this gap from +7.5 to +11.
Is Doncic worth 3.5 points? Absolutely. But Dallas spent the trade deadline trying to add some depth to its rotation, while Oklahoma City has reason to reduce its rotation’s workload tonight.
Additionally, not only will the Mavericks’ defense significantly improve without Doncic, but the game will have fewer points. Unsurprisingly, the total went from 242.5 to 234.5 in the wake of the Doncic news. Fewer points will reduce the Thunder’s chances of exploiting its talent advantage. To some extent, the lowered total inspires enough confidence on its own to back Dallas at +11 or +11.5 if available.
Best bet: Mavericks +11.5 (-110 to Caesars)
NBA Trends: Kawhi or die, clippers
Kawhi Leonard He is doubtful to play in Chicago tonight after back spasms cost him three-quarters of Los Angeles’ epic collapse against the Timberwolves on Tuesday. Even if the forward plays tonight, the Clippers’ season is now on the verge of disaster. If Leonard misses an action, assume Los Angeles will lose.
Kawhi Leonard left the arena after missing the second quarter.
(via @Launderer’s Report)
– Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) March 13, 2024
No, really, suppose that.
The Clippers are 11.9 points lower in net rating without Kawhi Leonard in six games this season than they are with him in 58 games, with most of that concern coming on the defensive side of the ball (-8.7) . Their net rating in those six games of -6.4 would rank 25th in the NBA since February 1, behind the Hornets, Jazz and even the Pistons.
Back spasms can be tricky. Anyone over 30 knows this. If they bust on Leonard at any point in the next month, doubt Los Angeles in every way possible.
Raise the ceiling: Flying Pelicans
Since March 1, the Celtics lead the NBA in net rating at +17.9. Nobody is surprised. Next up are the New Orleans Pelicans at +13.8, 4.4 points ahead of the Knicks at #3.
Western Conference teams with… a net rating >> +5 in their last 15 games: NOP (+11.0), MN (+7.5), Dallas (+6.1), OKC (+ 5.9).
… an average point differential >> +5: OKC (+7.7), MN (+6.5), NOP (+5.3).
…a road winning percentage north of .600: MN (.629), NOP (.618). https://t.co/qZFW0nmurw– Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) March 13, 2024
The numbers are the numbers, and they demand that respect be given to the Pelicans, even if their young team inspires some playoff concerns. New Orleans is +3,000 at BetRivers to win the Western Conference, and time could be running out to buy that value.
Especially considering Leonard’s aforementioned concerns. If Los Angeles stumbles, the Pelicans could take home-court advantage in the first round. They currently lead the Clippers 2-1 in the season series with a chance tomorrow night to secure that tiebreaker and cut Los Angeles’ lead in the standings to just one game.
Best NBA Bonuses
New users
Bet $5 on any bet
Get $158 in bonus bets! Claim now
All the users
Instant payout for NBA moneylines
If your team increases by 20+! Claim now
Eligible locations in the United States only. Also see our full list of best sports betting promotions for 2024.
21+. Gaming problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
NBA Futures Update: North to northwest
The top three teams in the Western Conference remain within one game of each other. Specifically, the top three teams in the Northwest Division remain one game away from each other at the top of the Western Conference.
Despite the toughest remaining schedule of the trio, the Denver Nuggets are -280 to win the division at FanDuel, with the Oklahoma City Thunder and the easiest remaining schedule of the three at +310 and the Minnesota Timberwolves at +900 , in no time. partly due to Karl-Anthony Towns’ meniscus injury.
The Nuggets feel inevitable, 10-1 since the All-Star break and 8-3 ATS, but only one of these three still controls their own path to winning the conference. If the Timberwolves win their next three games, they will win all tiebreakers against Western Conference contenders.
That’s obviously easier said than done, two away games at Utah before the second night of a back-to-back against the Nuggets on Tuesday. But even if Minnesota loses to Denver, if it can win one of the two remaining trips to the Rocky Mountains, it will still secure the tiebreakers.
*drops mic* pic.twitter.com/iBm7rtKj2b
– Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) March 13, 2024
All of this is to say two things: you can naturally dedicate a large portion of your weekend to watching basketball at the College Basketball Conference tournaments, but don’t neglect the NBA which will sneak into some crucial games the next week before March Madness begins in earnest. Second, considering the Timberwolves’ moneyline at home Tuesday night, it may be safer to bet on the future of their Northwest Division.
For completeness’ sake: Oklahoma City has the tiebreaker against Denver, having won its season series 3-1. Any three-team tiebreaker would obviously go Minnesota’s way if they can pull out a win in the remaining three games against the Nuggets.
Moneyline Underdog Picks
The odds are not yet known on these games, but a few things to watch out for…
Dallas vs. Denver (Sunday, March 17): The Nuggets could look forward to this crucial matchup against the Timberwolves on Tuesday, and the thought of Doncic returning to the court for a nationally televised matchup against the defending champions should spark thoughts of grandeur.
San Antonio vs. Brooklyn (Sunday, March 17): The Spurs have a perfectly balanced net rating over the last two weeks, a touch behind the Nets (+1.1) but still a notable improvement. This is analysis. Now use the eye test and try to determine who on Brooklyn’s roster can slow down Victor Wembanyama at all. Even though San Antonio is considered a slight favorite, invest in the Spurs.
