THE Miami heat (35-26) and Dallas Mavericks (34-28) meet Thursday as the two teams move in opposite directions in early March. The Heat have won their last two games and currently occupy the final automatic playoff spot in the East, while the Mavericks have lost three in a row and are in the play-in zone. This is the first meeting between these teams this season.
Tyler Herro, Kevin Love and Josh Richardson are out for the Heat, with Richardson officially finished for the season. Luka Doncic, who is coming off a fourth straight 30-point triple-double, is likely. Maxi Kleber is also likely for Dallas.
The Mavericks are favorites with 4.5 points according to DraftKings Sports Betting, with the total set at 229.5. Dallas is -192 on the moneyline while Miami is +160.
Heat vs. Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Choose ATS: Heat +4.5
Miami is 4-1 without Herro and 5-1 since the All-Star break, with the only loss coming against the defending champions. Nuggets. The Heat have covered the spread four times in six games since the break and are 13-7 ATS as a road underdog. The Mavericks have been outscored in three straight games despite Doncic’s insane production. They are 9-12 ATS as home favorites this season.
At some point, either Doncic will stop dropping massive stat lines or the Mavericks will find a way to translate that into winning. I like that the Heat, who have had more success since the break, look like the underdog in this contest.
More less : Over 229.5
The Heat are 24-37 this season, making them one of the most sub-friendly teams in the league. Miami is 9-22 as an away team this season. Dallas is 31-30-1 on the year, but just 15-18 at home. The Mavericks have gone over four times in the seven games since the break, while the Heat are 3-3 in plus/minus. Even if Miami can put the clamps on Doncic and Kyrie Irving, I think Dallas still has enough firepower to push this total above 229.5.
