In the middle of Houston Rockets The late-season push and dwindling hopes of making the play-ins suddenly became more than a pipe dream. The Rockets remaining in play-in contention should be considered a win given the trajectory they were on before the winning streak, but the idea of making the tournament is quickly taking shape.
Exuding cautious optimism about the possibility of playoff play, I began thinking about matchups that would give the Rockets an even better chance at extending their season.
Either way, it’s likely that if the Rockets sneak into the play-ins, it would be as a tenth seed, at best a ninth seed. Currently sitting 2.5 games behind the Warriors of the Golden Stateit is likely that Houston faces them or that the the Los Angeles Lakers in a one-game elimination.
However, with only four games separating the sixth place Sacramento Kings and Warriors, there is still room for the standings to realign. Also joining the group of teams fighting for a place are the Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns.
Either way, the Rockets would have to beat two of these teams no matter what to move from play-in status to playoff status as the official eighth seed. At this point we will accept the invitation, but it is always worth asking what is the most ideal path to take.
Rockets record against play-in competitors
3-0 against the Kings,
1-0 vs. Mavs (two games remaining)
2-2 against the Suns
2-2 against the Lakers
0-2 against the Warriors (one game remaining)
Among these teams, it is clear that the Kings are the least intimidating. Although the Kings got a taste of the playoffs for the first time in forever last season, they remain the least tenured team with playoff experience and lack the Hall of Fame credentials of four other teams.
However, the likelihood of them falling to the ninth seed is wishful thinking considering they have hovered within range of the six seeds for most of the season. A fight in Sacramento may have to wait until the second round of the NBA Play-In tournament if all goes well.
The problem with the remaining four teams is that they all feature a multitude of elite scorers and champions from the history of the game. This raises concerns, at least in the case of a winner-takes-all scenario. Although I think the Lakers and Warriors are the least important of the four, who really wants to see LeBron James or Steph Curry in a game for all the marbles?
History already suggests that bad things happen every time the Rockets play the Warriors in a playoff atmosphere. Is it necessary for the Warriors to dance on the Rockets’ grave again?
What about some interstate rivalry? And the Mavs? Well… Luka Doncic has not been kind to Houston during his career, and the results have weighed heavily in his favor during that span. Slowing down Doncic and a revitalized Kyrie Irving doesn’t feel like a walk in the park.
It also doesn’t seem too tempting if the Rockets draw the Suns. Phoenix has the greatest boom-or-bust potential heading into the playoffs, as its ability to get tough buckets depends on the backs of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. If their offense goes nuclear, it could be a major problem for Houston.
However, due to the questions surrounding Phoenix’s depth and defense, I think they would rank as one of the more favorable options in a nine-on-ten matchup. The reason is that Houston seems to get up a little more for Phoenix games. Combine that with how volatile the Suns’ health has been this season, and I think they might be the most vulnerable in a one-game series. Unfortunately, they would have to fall back a bit in the rankings for this to become a reality.
Ultimately, that leaves Houston with a “would you rather” between Golden State and the Lakers. Would you rather go with LeBron and Anthony Davis, or Steph Curry and the rest of the Jackson 5? Remember, Curry’s supporting cast still has enormous big game experience.
The answer remains the Warriors, despite what has happened over the past decade. They’re the smallest team in the field, and if Alperen Sengun returns, Houston might be able to impose his physicality on them. It would be a fitting moment in Rockets history, the upstart team full of youth exercising their demons against the aging team that tormented them for years.
In the event that Houston bounces one of these teams in the nine-to-ten game and advances to face the seven-to-eight loser, the hope is that it would be the Kings. At this point, it’s conceivable that the Rockets’ run to the playoffs requires a pit stop (or two) in Northern California.
