On Monday night, two of the NBA’s brightest markets will share the national spotlight. The New York Knicks (40-27; 34-30-3 ATS) and the Golden State Warriors (35-31; 35-29-2 ATS) face each other for the second time this season. The first round took place on February 29, a 110-99 road victory over Golden State. This time, they can host at Chase Center at 10:10 p.m. EDT. Will history repeat itself or are the Knicks planning revenge?
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New York’s nasty defense
The Knicks will try to keep their opponent under 100 points for the sixth straight game on Monday. Only one team reached the century mark against New York in March. This team, seventh in defensive ranking, is one of the few to defy the high scoring trend of the 2023-24 campaign. That starts with the sixth-best defense at the rim, coupled with a solid ability to force misses from other shooting spots. Next, the Knicks allow the third-fewest free throw attempts per competition. New York is fourth in defensive rebounding percentage and 10th in turnover percentage. Few defenses have been better than this Knicks group, which is only getting better.
I woke up thinking about this room????????@jalenbrunson1 book every time! pic.twitter.com/K2orREtr6e
– NEW YORK KNICKS (@nyknicks) March 17, 2024
Moving on to the offensive end, Jalen Brunson (27.5 ppg, 6.4 apg) is the key to their success. The Knicks are 14th in the offensive ranking thanks to the first All-Star. New York also boasts the best offensive rebound percentage in the NBA. This helps mask a true shooting percentage ranked 20th and rim efficiency ranked 27th in the league. The Knicks are 20th in turnover percentage. There should be better days ahead, but with the roster available, this is how New York currently operates.
Out – Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson
The warriors return home
Golden State is fully healthy and back in San Francisco, trying to get out of play-in position. They went 2-1 on their recent road trip. The team comes home 11th in offensive rating. With Steph Curry Up front, it should come as no surprise that the Warriors are third in three-point attempts per game and eighth in three-point efficiency. While Golden State is fifth in rim efficiency, they are 26th in percentage of shots taken within five feet of the hoop. Overall, the Warriors are 14th in true shooting percentage and third in offensive rebounding percentage. They are 22nd in turnover percentage, which can be a problem, as well as problems getting to the free throw line. Either way, Golden State is seventh in the rankings for a reason.
Defensively, the Warriors are holding up. They rank 15th in defensive rating, largely because they allow the fewest shot attempts at the rim. They are eighth in forcing three-point misses. Golden State is 23rd in turnovers per game and 22nd in free throw attempts allowed. The team is 10th in defensive rebounding percentage. Can they keep the Knicks under 100 points again?
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Unfortunately, the Knicks are 15-2 with OG Anunoby in the lineup. He’ll be there on Monday (unlike the February game) and it’s one of the main reasons why none of New York’s opponents are reaching 100 points these days. Expect the Knicks defense to do its part again.
On the other side, Golden State will have a tough time facing Jalen Brunson again, and he is coming off back-to-back 40+ point games. New York should get to the free throw line often against the Warriors. Expect the Knicks to win and play them head-to-head.
Prediction: New York Knicks +140
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The Knicks are the slowest team in the NBA, which will slow down the pace of this game. They’ve held six of their seven opponents this month under 100 points, including three under 80. Meanwhile, their offense has gone nine straight games without reaching 110 points.
On the other hand, Golden State has already held New York under 100 this season. The Knicks won’t emphasize the Warriors’ defense at the rim. Golden State is strong enough on the glass to control New York’s offensive rebounding. Take the bottom.
Prediction: Under 212.5
