The defending champion Nuggets will face the Mavericks in Dallas on Sunday afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC), in a can’t-miss showdown between the Western Conference powers.
Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic might be the two best basketball players on the planet right now. Doncic leads the NBA in scoring at a Jordan-comparable 34.3 points per game, shooting 49.4 percent from the field and 37.8 percent from beyond the three-point line. Jokic remains virtually unstoppable and effortlessly dominant, averaging 26/12/9 while shooting 58 percent.
The Nugs and Mavs also have plenty of support around their main men. Denver’s complementary pieces have only gotten stronger since its title run last June, led by pure scorer Jamal Murray, lobster Aaron Gordon and three-point shooters Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Dallas, meanwhile, has Kyrie Irving playing healthy and motivated, with the recent acquisitions of Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington helping immensely.
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This should be a great match, and we’re excited to be able to place bets on the board before afternoon tipoff. Let’s take a look at the odds, then discuss the stats and trends you need to know before we get to our best bets and best props from BetMGM.
Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction, player props, betting against the spread and moneyline
All odds and props are from BetMGM, a licensed NBA gaming operator.
- ATS: Nuggets -2.5 (-105) | Mavericks +2.5 (-115)
- Money line: Nuggets -175 | Nonconformists +195
- More less : W 236.5 (-105) | U236.5 (-115)
The Nuggets, who are 19-14 on the road but just 14-18-1 ATS on the road this season, entered the weekend as modest favorites. The Mavs are 20-15 at home, but just 16-19 ATS at America Airlines Arena.
Denver has won nine of its last 10 games, moving into second place in the West, while the Mavs have gone just 5-5 of their last 10 games and have fallen to eighth place. Doncic (hamstring) missed the Mavs’ loss to OKC on Thursday but should be able to face Denver, while Josh Green (ankle) remains day-to-day after leaving the Thunder game.
Nuggets vs Mavericks predictions, best bets
The Nuggets have owned the Mavericks in their last three meetings, and we have no reason to believe Denver will suddenly falter this time around. Every time Michael Malone’s team faces Dallas, it seems to reveal another weakness. The Nugs beat the Mavs by nine in February 2023, by 11 in November 2023 and by 26 in December.
Of course, Kyrie wasn’t there in two of those games (including the 26-point bombing), and Dallas has yet to face Denver since acquiring Gafford and Washington. But we still have a hard time believing the Mavs have enough offensive firepower or defensive ability to keep up with the Joker and company when they’re firing on all cylinders.
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The Nugs almost seemed to be in cruise control for the first four months of the season and now they’re suddenly shifting into high gear en route to their second straight No. 1 seed in the West. Entering the weekend, the defending champions were tied with the Thunder at the top of the standings. OKC just beat the Doncic-less Mavs 126-119 on Thursday. This is a similar final score to what we’re predicting for this one.
Dallas has the 21st defensive rating and the 23rd best defense. The Mavs also rank in the bottom 10 in the league in points allowed in the paint and bottom seven in rebounds. Sure, Luka and Kyrie are two of the most gifted shooters, playmakers, and ball handlers in the world — but if they can’t stop the well-oiled machine that Denver has become, it’s all moot.
Who defends the Joker? When help arrives, which nugget will Jason Kidd decide to sag outside the three-point arc? Can anyone stop Murray from hitting his midrange spots, or Gordon from exploding at the dunker point? We see far too many question marks for Dallas and far too many obvious advantages for Denver. Bet on the reigning champions and watch the Joker go wild.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Nuggets 129, Mavericks 121 — The nuggets earn (-175) And blanket (-2.5), and the score ends well ON the projected total (242.5).
Nuggets at Mavericks: bet on the best player
Jamal Murray assists – OVER 6.5 (-115)
Murray is averaging 6.6 dimes per game this season, but he has 52 over his last six games (8.6 APG) and he’s racked up 15 over Denver’s two games against the Mavs. With Jokic in a favorable matchup against Gafford and rookie Derek Lively, Murray should have plenty of opportunities to beat the two-time MVP in the pick-and-roll as well as in the low post.
We also expect Dallas to try and team up with Murray to slow the Nuggets’ pace, which should open the door to easy threes for MPJ, KCP and company. We’re convinced Murray goes OVER here and records seven-plus assists for the sixth time in seven games.
