Last year, the Oklahoma City Thunder won 57 games in a surprise series that earned them first place in the Western Conference. As the second-youngest team in the NBA, no one expected the Thunder to survive the rough and tumble of the Western Conference a year ago, but they did so thanks to an MVP runner-up, the coach of the year, some of the best players in the game and two budding rising stars.
But it wasn’t all rosy in Bricktown. Josh Giddey’s poor run ended his 218-game starting streak in the NBA playoffs and a lack of depth on the court hurt them in meaningful plays.
When Chet Holmgren left the court, the Thunder suffered a series that they lost in six games by a zero-point differential — upgrading the backup center position suggests Oklahoma City will improve significantly. Likewise, replacing the misfit Giddey with a 40 percent shooter and defensive ace like Alex Caruso will check all the boxes to make an already potent starting five one of the best five-man rosters in the sport.
This led to Oklahoma City being the favorite to win the Western Conference and an over/under win total set at 56.5 wins. according to FanDuelThe boys from Bricktown also have the second-best odds to win the NBA Finals, behind the Boston Celtics.
However, there’s not much room for improvement in the win column – winning 60 games is incredibly difficult, but not impossible. Ultimately, the Thunder care about exploring rosters, mixing and matching lineups, and having 10-12 players deep every night during the 82-game season.
With those moving parts and the integration of two massive contributors who weren’t in OKC a year ago, there’s a chance the ball bounces against the Thunder just enough to reduce the win total by 57 while simultaneously allowing Oklahoma City to be more ready for a championship run than it was a year ago.
Evaluating this season won’t be as simple as it has been in the past, and being able to evaluate the Thunder’s 2024-25 campaign won’t be as simple as comparing win totals to last year’s. Even if the Thunder win 56 games or fewer, that doesn’t mean the team has gone backwards.
There is a chance, however, that with such a tough season and a core of players who care more than anyone about regular-season games, Oklahoma City will continue to improve its win total. No matter how this season plays out, it will be important to evaluate this season with an eye that takes into account context and not just basic numbers like record.
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