The NBA will roll out a six-game slate Monday night, culminating in a thrilling Western Conference matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the the Los Angeles Lakers. OKC enters this game at 41-18 (1st in the West) while Los Angeles is currently 33-29 (10th in the West). The announcement is scheduled for 10:30 a.m. ET from the crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California.
*This article was written before the end of the Thunder’s Sunday night game.
Thunder’s six-game winning streak is snapped
Mark Daigneault and his Thunder are having a fantastic season, and many are surprised that they remain so high in the rankings. Yet here we are, almost 75% of the way through the season and Oklahoma City has the top seed in the West. Oddsmakers STILL aren’t buying their success, pricing the Thunder at +2500 to win the title. These are the seventh-shortest odds in the market, behind three other Western Conference teams. They have been hot lately, but their six-game winning streak ended last time against the Spurs (132-118). From a sports betting perspective, the Thunder enter this game with a 37-21-1 record against the spread and have seen the money over at a rate of 33-23-3.
Oklahoma City was a heavy 11.5-point road favorite against San Antonio, so they failed to make up for an outright loss. The Thunder won the turnover battle (11 to 12), but the Spurs had the advantage in every other major statistical category, including field goal percentage (52.7% to 49.4%), field goals three points (48.7% to 29.0%) and rebound (45 to 37).
Individually, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the battery in the backcourt, leading the way in scoring (31.2 PPG), assists (6.5 APG) and steals (2.1 SPG). SGA is currently +240 to win the MVP title, behind Nikola Jokic (-145). Chet Holmgren runs things low, adding 17.2 points per game while giving the team high marks in rebounds (7.7 RPG) and blocks (2.6 BPG).
The Lakers dusted off, LeBron reaches 40,000 points
Los Angeles was on a two-game winning streak heading into Saturday night’s game, where they had recently defeated the Clippers (116-112) and Wizards (134-131). That streak ended when the Lakers hosted the Nuggets, losing 124-114. The big news was LeBron James’ latest milestone, where he reached 40,000 career points. As for their season, the Lakers are currently 10th in the West, holding a 5.5-game advantage over the 11th-place Jazz. It’s extremely likely they’ll make the play-in, but they’ll need some magic from that point on. From a sports betting perspective, Los Angeles is currently 28-35 against the spread and they have seen surplus money at a rate of 33-29-1.
The Lakers were a slim 0.5 point home favorite last time out, so they failed to cover the 10 point loss. Denver had the advantage in every major statistical category, including field goal percentage (58.7% to 52.8%), three-point shooting (42.3% to 41.4%), turnovers (10 to 15) and rebounds (47 to 31).
As for individual efforts, it was none other than the aforementioned James who led the way this year. The veteran leads the team in scoring (25.3 PPG), assists (7.9 APG) and steals (1.3 SPG). Anthony Davis runs things down low, adding 25.0 points per game while posting team high marks in rebounding (12.3 RPG) and blocks (2.4 BPG).
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Best Bets
Full Game Side Bet
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This is a very intriguing matchup on Monday night considering it could be a first round playoff matchup if the cards play out that way. Oklahoma City will play the second night of a back-to-back after facing Phoenix on Sunday. This situation hasn’t been a problem for the Thunder this season as they are 7-3 both SU and ATS with zero days off. That being said, I’ll take Oklahoma City, who is +1.5 (-110), to win this game.
Mostly, I just believe Oklahoma City is the better team. They have the advantage in offensive and defensive efficiency, and they are also playing better lately. The Thunder have won six of their last seven games. I will support the deeper and younger team on Monday night.
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (-104)
Total choice of the complete game
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This total is a little higher than I’d like (due to Oklahoma City’s excellent defense), but I’ll take a flyer anyway. Let’s start with tempo, where each of these teams ranks 10th or better in the category. Los Angeles is sixth in pace, using 103.1 possessions per game, while Oklahoma City is 10th (102.5). With Los Angeles having a rest advantage, I expect them to pick up the pace against a “theoretically potentially fatigued” OKC team.
I have no doubt the Thunder offense will be able to match that intensity. They have two of the best players in the league in SGA (31.2 PPG) and Chet Holmgren (17.2 PPG). This offense is fantastic, coming in second in offensive efficiency, with 117.9 points per 100 possessions. Maybe their defense is taking a step back after a tough game at Phoenix on Sunday, so I think both offenses find success in this one – give me the upper hand!
Prediction: Over 239.5 (-110)
