The Toronto Raptors are moving toward a decision regarding Ochai Agbaji’s future.
Like all first-round picks selected in 2022, Agbaji has a team option that the organization has until Oct. 31 to exercise for the 2025-26 season. If exercised, the contract would pay Agbaji $6.4 million for the final year of his rookie deal before he enters restricted free agency in 2026. If he declines, Agbaji would enter free agency after the upcoming season.
In most cases, these decisions are obvious. The vast majority of first-round picks are retained for the full length of their rookie contracts. Among the 2021 draft class, for example, only six of the 30 first-round picks were not retained for the full length of their rookie contracts.
In Agbaji’s case, it’s potentially a little less simple.
The 24-year-old hasn’t shown much offensive development in his brief NBA career. He averaged just 5.8 points per game last season on 41.1 percent shooting, and his three-point percentage dropped to 29.4 percent. Toronto was hoping to improve his shooting over the summer, but Abgaji didn’t look comfortable in Summer League, where he averaged just six points on 35.7 percent shooting over four games.
What is clear is that Agbaji is a solid defender. He stands 6-foot-4, weighs 210 pounds and can handle himself on the wings. At times last year, he was Toronto’s primary defender against the opposing team’s best player and was tasked with starting 18 games late in the season for the Raptors.
But heading into this year, it’s unclear whether Agbaji will start the season in Toronto’s rotation. Four of Toronto’s five starters appear set in stone Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl are all guaranteed to start for the Raptors when healthy. Gradey Dick, Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, Ja’Kobe Walter and Davion Mitchell are likely considered the next five in some order, giving Toronto a pretty clear top nine heading into the season. After that, Agbaji is in the mix alongside Jonathan Mogbo, Chris Boucher and Jamal Shead who should get playing time when Toronto is forced to open up its second unit.
Toronto likely won’t be a team with salary cap space next summer, so there’s no obvious reason to part ways with Agbaji. That said, if the Raptors plan to use their entire mid-level exception next season, a little extra financial flexibility to use in free agency or a trade next summer might not be such a bad thing. Toronto was able to turn salary cap space into multiple second-round picks in a trade with the Sacramento Kings last summer, and giving up Agbaji would create more flexibility under the luxury tax threshold.
The Raptors likely won’t decline Agbaji’s option, given the relatively small contract size and the upside potential if he develops into a good three-point shooter next season. But while it’s an obvious move for most prospects, Agbaji’s lackluster start to his career complicates the situation a bit.
