The Pelicans have a big advantage in the Western Conference playoff race.
The fight for a playoff spot has become much more intense since the creation of the NBA Play-In Tournament. THE New Orleans Pelicans attempt to avoid the Play-In tournament, thus securing a top-six playoff spot.
So are LeBron James, Steph Curry and Luka Doncic, all of whom risk facing win-or-go-home situations just to advance in a seven-game series. Earning a top-six seed gives the team a week off while avoiding the grueling Play-In tournament. New Orleans has a big advantage in the heated Western Conference race.
THE Historic pelicans (36-25) will have played more games through March 4 than any other team fighting for one of the last guaranteed playoff spots. New Orleans, currently fifth, will visit the Toronto Raptors (22-38) on March 5, and Willie Green’s group will have enjoyed three days off before playing this only game on the other side of the border. This is important for two reasons, both in Canada and in the long term.
Math games work in favor of the Pelicans
First, more games played means fewer games before the NBA Playoffs to start. This leads to fresher legs and more matchups where the Pelicans will have a rest advantage or at least be on equal footing. That wasn’t the case earlier in the season, and Green still has this year’s team playing at a near-historic pace.
The Pelicans are 2-0 in games after four days of rest. They won the season opener against the Memphis Grizzlies and beat the Houston Rockets after the NBA All-Star break. The next time New Orleans can enjoy a four-day mini-vacation will be the playoffs, but only if it makes the top six. Zion Williamson and company are 7-3 with two or three days of rest and 9-6 with an advantage at rest regardless of the days off.
The Crescent City team is 4-8 with a rest disadvantage at all times and 4-6 in the back half of their 10 straight sets. Fortunately for New Orleans, the Pelicans only have three consecutive sets left on the schedule.
Four of those six games are against Western Conference opponents. The first consists of two home games against the Los Angeles Clippers (3/15) and Portland Trail Blazers (3/16). THE The Clippers are in shock since Russell Westbrook fractured his hand. Portland has already started planning for a busy offseason.
The second and third sets in a row are among the most logistically manageable. Facing the Orlando Magic (3/21) and Miami Heat (3/22) means a quick trip down I-95. The Pelicans visit the Sacramento Kings (4/11) and Golden State Warriors (4/12) but the season finale is at home against the Los Angeles Lakers (4/14). It is impossible to predict which franchises will play for the ranking and which will play the main role.
The Kings and Lakers still face a tough trip to see the Raptors. Both arrive in Toronto on the first night of a back-to-back set before catching a connecting flight to Washington DC. The Kings and Clippers both have six straight sets remaining. The Golden State Warriors have five. The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns have four.
Don’t rust to finish the regular season
The Pelicans will have a rest advantage through five games in March. If New Orleans makes the NBA Play-In Tournament games, it won’t be due to tired legs. This excuse will ignore the fact that every other team is worse off. CJ McCollum admitted as much during the All-Star break, via ESPN.
“We talked about five games in seven days. Going out with a back to back. Then we have a gap of six games in about 14 or 15 days, shout out to the scheduling gods,” McCollum said. “We’re excited about that.”
Basketball usually gets exciting with the NCAA conference tournaments beginning the first week of March and ending with the NBA Finals in June. The madness begins for New Orleans with April Fool’s Day which welcomes the Suns.
The Orlando Magic (4/3) and San Antonio Spurs (4/5) will commute through the Smoothie King Center during the second week of spring. The next seven days promise to be brutal, especially if Willie Green’s group doesn’t create any separation from the Play-In pack.
The Pelicans will play four road games in six days before hosting the Lakers in the regular season finale. The Suns (4/7), Trail Blazers (4/9), Kings (4/11) and Warriors (4/12) will all have something to play for this final week. Portland is the only team looking to lose to improve their chances in the NBA lottery.
Golden State is in a weak position with more games away than at home. Curry’s Warriors also have no more games with an advantage at rest and are four wins behind the Pelicans. The Lakers have a league-high four breaks of two days or more, but only 20 games remain to catch up.
For example, if the Pelicans win 10 more games, the Lakers would have to go 14-6 the rest of the way just to tie the game.
The Mavericks will be dangerous. They only have one short-handed rest game left all season. However, the benefits only count for a limited period. There is so little time left.
The Pelicans won’t have to worry about scoreboard monitoring or complex tiebreaker calculations if they simply win at home and beat lottery teams on the road. Do that and Willie Green’s locker room will celebrate a 50-win season.
About the Author
Chris Dodson has covered Louisiana high school and college basketball on and off for more than a decade. A lifer of bayou basketball, his wiggling gumbo form matches his elbow-dropping celebrations. Fast enough for college hoops, big enough for a football scholarship. He has words and will travel, but not on the field.
