The Raptors are in bad shape with a long list of injuries and face a Pelicans team that lit them up when they were closer to full strength. Brandon Ingram has become one of the focal points of the New Orleans offense and will do some damage again tonight.
The Toronto Raptors were showing new life after the All-Star break, winning four of six games and generally playing better basketball. But “broken” doesn’t seem to be the right word as Scottie Barnes is now sidelined for the foreseeable future with a fractured hand.
Thus, the tank could be officially operational in Toronto and the NBA Odds support that idea tonight as the Raps are nearly double-digit underdogs against Zion Williamson and the visiting New Orleans Pelicans.
Does Toronto have any value as a home pup, or will New Orleans cover the big chalk? I break it all down and give you the best bet, plus a bet in the same game in my NBA Pick and predictions for the Pelicans vs. Raptors on Tuesday, March 5.
Pelicans vs Raptors odds
Pelicans vs Raptors Predictions
THE Toronto Raptors won their first game without Scottie Barnes on Sunday, but it was against the Charlotte Hornets. And they couldn’t cover the spread as 7.5-point home favorites in the 111-106 victory. To make matters worse, starting center Jakob Poeltl dislocated a finger last game and will join Barnes and Bruce Brown on the sidelines.
So what can a depleted Raptors team do against the New Orleans PelicansWho enters this game ranked fifth in the NBA in net rating?
Well, probably not much, to be honest.
Although the Raptors have shown signs of improvement since rebuilding their roster at the start of the new year, those improvements have not occurred on the defensive end of the court. Honestly, it was bad. Toronto has the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA since Jan. 1 and ranks 22nd in opponent’s field goal percentage for the season.
So slow down a guy like Brandon Ingram This is a problem with or without Barnes.
As a team, the Pels have shown some consistency as of late, but Ingram is doing his part to keep things going.
Ingram is averaging 21.7 points per game and shooting 49.1 percent from the field, but the Pels forward is taking his game to the next level as of late. He increased his production to 24 points per game on 49.8% shooting over his last 14.
Still, his point total for this game is 21.5. He has erased that number nine times during this 14-game streak, including the last four in a row. He also had 41 points while leading the Pelicans to a 138-100 loss to that same Raptors team on February 5.
Like I said, defending Ingram would be difficult for the Raptors, even with Scottie active. Without him, things will get ugly. Ingram should light it tonight. Get the upper hand on his point total.
My best bet: Brandon Ingram Over 21.5 points (-125 at PointsBet)
Parlay Pelicans vs Raptors in the same game
Brandon Ingram Over 21.5 points
Raptors TT under 108.5
Jonas Valanciunas Over 9.5 rebounds
Not having Barnes hurts the Raptors defensively, but he’s also averaging 19.9 points and 6.6 assists per game, so he’s generated a lot of offense.
While we’ve seen the Raptors take advantage of bad defensive teams, they tend to struggle against good defensive teams. In their last three games against good defenses (Golden State, Cleveland and Houston), they have scored 105, 95 and 107 points respectively.
The Pelicans are sixth in the NBA in terms of D ranking and held the Raptors to just 100 points in this last meeting. Let’s add minus 108.5 for the Raptors team total in this one.
Another area where the Raps struggle is on the glass. They have the second-worst rebounding rate since January 1 and are now short their two best rebounders, Barnes and Jakob Poeltl. Pels center and former Raptor Jonas Valanciunas should face little resistance on the boards tonight.
He averages 9.5 rebounds per game and collected 12 in his last meeting against Toronto. Close this SGP with him to exceed 9.5 rebounds.
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Pelican vs. Raptor Breakdown and Over/Under Analysis
The Raptors opened as a 7.5-point underdog at home, but that number didn’t last long as early bettors jumped all over the Pelicans and moved the number to Toronto +9.5.
When these teams met in New Orleans on February 5, the Pelicans were listed as 10.5-point favorites. The Pels beat the Raptors in this game 138-100.
Toronto was playing the second half of a back-to-back game that night, but this line still underestimates New Orleans. Especially considering the Raps will be without Barnes, Poeltl and Brown. All played in this last meeting.
As for the total, it hits 229 and that’s where it remains as of Tuesday afternoon.
The final total on Feb. 5 closed at 231 and went relatively smoothly thanks to the Pelicans’ offensive outburst. New Orleans has been under a bit of pressure lately, going 4-11 O/U, but I could see these teams playing above the number again.
Pelicans vs Raptors betting trend to know
The Raptors have reached Team Total Under in 26 of their last 37 home games for +13.4 units. Find more NBA Betting Trends for the Pelicans against the Raptors.
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Pelicans vs. Raptors Game Info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday March 5, 2024 |
| Trick : | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN, Bally Sports New Orleans |
Pelicans’ latest injuries vs. Raptors
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