Predicting where the Warriors will finish in the tough Western Conference originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

After falling further down the Western Conference in each of the last three NBA seasons, from third to sixth to 10th, the Warriors believe they improved during the offseason and, therefore, are ready to climb.

A look at the depth within the conferenceHowever, offers a sobering rebuttal. Being better will not necessarily translate into a better outcome.

The West remains as dense as last season, but the second and third divisions are even deeper. The gap between fourth and twelfth place has narrowed.

Among the 15 Western teams, only the rebuilding franchises Portland and Utah can be ignored in serious playoff conversations. San Antonio Spursalso in the midst of a rebuild, could aim for a spot in the NBA play-in tournament. The other 12 teams will fight to get one of the six guaranteed spots or, at least, one of the four play-in spots.

The Western Conference was the main topic of the week on NBC Sports Bay Area’s “Dubs Talk” podcast. There were so many variables that a scheduled 30-minute conversation with our guest, national NBA reporter Sam Amick of The Athletic, stretched into an hour.

The top three teams are, on paper, solid. Oklahoma City Thunder was the No. 1 seed last season and improved by adding Alex Caruso And Isaiah Hartenstein. THE Denver Nuggetswho finished second last season, is expected to fall after losing its two-way back Kentavious Caldwell-Pape. THE Minnesota Timberwolves finished third and projected not to finish lower.

The fourth spot, which guarantees home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs, appears to be where the defending conference champion The Dallas Mavericks should land.

“I think Dallas is there,” Amick said of the roster bolstered by the acquisition of the former Warrior. Klay Thompson. “I certainly don’t have the Lakers “There you go. Phoenix is ​​going to be good. I think more time together should help them, but their roster is so unbalanced. So I’m probably going to go OKC, Minnesota, Denver and Dallas.”

The last two guaranteed playoff spots will be coveted by the Phoenix SunsTHE The New Orleans Pelicansthe rise Houston Rocketsrecovery Memphis Grizzlies – and Northern California rivals the Warriors and Sacramento Kings.

Sacramento finished ninth last season, with Golden State 10. The Kings won their play-in game, sending Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Thompson is going through a summer without a playoff series for the first time in his life.

We think the Warriors have improved slightly. Buddy Hield will need an adjustment period but has the potential to replace Thompson’s once-delivered shot. Kyle Anderson offers two-way versatility as a backup. De’Anthony Melton will help the defense and contribute on offense.

If Curry is usually professionalt, green is atypically available and Gary Payton II If the Warriors are healthy, they have the potential to be a top-eight prospect. If new assistant coaches Terry Stotts (offense) and Jerry Stackhouse (defense) can make a positive impact, Golden State could even climb into the top six.

There are a lot of “ifs,” for sure, but that can be said of most of these teams.

“What people forget is how good the Warriors were in the second half,” Amick said, referring to Golden State’s 27-12 record over its last 39 games.

Golden State’s brilliant finish to the regular season was shattered by the Kings in the playoff game at the Golden 1 Center. Sacramento took the lead three minutes into the game and held on for a 118-94 victory. These Kings were good.

The new Kings could be better. The arrival of a five-time All-Star point guard DeMar DeRozanto the detriment of Harrison Barnesprovides them with another verified partner closer to De’Aaron Fox. Monk MalikA lightning bolt came off the bench, opted to re-sign and make another attempt at Sixth Man of the Year.

The Kings or the Warriors? Who finishes better? I say the Warriors. Amick disagrees.

“I’m going to give it to the Kings,” he said. “I’m going to go with the best-known product. I trust Fox and (Domantas) Sabonis and Keegan (Murray) and Monk. I know what they are. If they’re healthy, they’re really good. And I’m also very supportive of DeRozan.

“And as great and incredible as Steph is, he needs help. There are a lot of question marks around him right now that maybe can be answered, and we’ll have a fascinating conversation in six months where they’ll really figure it out. And it’s possible. This is the NBA. Crazy things happen.”

Aside from the top three and bottom three, there will be some “crazy stuff” in the West. The Los Angeles Clippersfor example, are the only ones who are sure to get out of the top six. They could fight for a play-in spot. After that, it’s a free-for-all.

The Suns will once again be built around Bradley Beal, Devin Booker And Kevin Durant – three All-Stars – and not much else. Tyus Jones And Monte Morrisstellar backup playmakers, combine to stabilize the position that was a glaring weak spot last season?

Los Angeles Lakers? How Long Can We Wait? LeBron Jameswho will turn 40 in December, defy the aging process? This could be the year when the towering Los Angeles duo, Anthony Davis and James, miss another bunch of games. They missed a combined 17 games last season, their lowest total since becoming teammates in 2019.

“I’m curious to see the impact of JJ Reddick and how that plays out,” Amick said, referring to the new head coach. “Because even though Darvin Ham took a lot of flak, Darvin got them to the Western Conference Finals the year before. Darvin just ended up losing the support of the star players and JJ has it now.”

The Pelicans now have four confirmed scorers: Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray And Zion Williamson. However, Zion’s availability will determine their ceiling.

The Grizzlies, who are coming off a miserable season (27-55), will be boosted by the returns of Yes Morant, Marcus Smart and a full season of Desmond BaneThe trio missed a total of 177 games last season.

The Rockets? Even with talented center Alperen Șengun sidelined, they made a nice comeback late last season. They should improve and be at least good enough to make more established teams suffer.

Buckle up. There will be blood in the West. Will the Warriors be equipped to cause more than they lose? Know that they won’t settle for that. Not under CEO Joe Lacob. Not with Curry scrutinizing the entire operation.

If the Warriors are in the middle of the mid-round standings — they should be at least there — they’re sure to look to make a deal before the trade deadline.

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