THE Boston Celtics are rightly the big favorites to win the title. They own the best record (51-14), best net rating (plus-11.4), best offensive rating (122.7) and best simple rating system score (11.13) in the league, and the gap between them and the second team is huge. .
*Second-place spread is the spread between the Celtics and the second-place team applied to the second-place team.
When it comes to team statistics, the Celtics have no current rivals and are instead chasing history.
The Celtics are in the midst of a historic season. They are fifth all-time in Simple Rating System (SRS) scoring, the sum of a team’s margin of victory and strength of schedule, fourth all-time in net scoring, and are on pace to define the NBA’s offensive efficiency over a single season. record and become the 26th team to reach 64 wins in a season. The Celtics are not only the best team in the NBA right now, they are one of the greatest teams ever assembled, but anything less than a championship could erase that.
The reality of the NBA discourse is that the 2023-24 Celtics will not be considered a historic team without winning a title. As much as ring culture has unfairly overshadowed great individual careers, it has also tarnished great teams. No one cares that the 1993-94 Seattle Supersonics won 63 games because they lost in the first round of the playoffs. If they are mentioned at all, they have come to personify failure, even though that team was nothing short of a resounding success.
Everything the Celtics achieve this regular season will be on the line in the playoffs. They could become one of the greatest teams of all time, or they could become a punchline. Nuance, like Lou Williams, is not a starter. The Celtics, fortunately, have many factors working in their favor in their quest for glory, but one flaw could undo it all.
The Simple Rating System (SRS) is not a perfect metric, but it does a better job than the win-loss record at identifying truly elite teams. Take the 2021-22 Phoenix Suns as an example. They have won an NBA-best 64 games, on par with the Celtics 2023-24, but only had a 6.94 SRS, second in the NBA. While they were the favorites in the Western Conference, it shouldn’t have been a huge shock when they were upset in the second round of the playoffs by the Dallas Mavericks.
These Suns were still a great team, but their SRS was more indicative of their true talent level than their record. Of the 78 teams that won 60 games or more, they had the 49th best SRS, and of the 25 teams that reached 64 wins or more, they had the 24th SRS, which they only got because of the 2005 Pistons play -06 at a slower pace of 13 possessions. However, the Celtics’ 2023-24 SRS suggests their record is no fluke.
If the Celtics maintain their SRS of 11.13, they would be just the fifth team to finish a season with an SRS of 11 or higher. SRS is not a perfect predictor of championship success, but when a team scores as high as the Celtics, they win the title. The four teams with an SRS above 11 finished their season crowned champions.
Even if the Celtics slipped in SRS towards the end of the season, only 10 teams, not counting these Celtics, would have finished with an SRS above 10, and seven of the ten teams won it all. However, even if two teams from the same season appeared twice, meaning that of the eight available championships, seven were won by the team with an SRS above 10. The only exception was the 2015 season- 16 when Cleveland, led by LeBron James. The Cavaliers overcame a 3-1 series deficit against the 73-win Golden State Warriors, and the San Antonio Spurs were upset in the second round of the playoffs by the Memphis Grizzlies.
According to SRS, the Celtics should be considered a virtual lock for the title. Historically, teams this overwhelming can’t let one bad game get them down. The Celtics have reached regular season dominance territory where they must be considered an all-time great team in the inner circle.
SRS believes the Celtics are far and away the best team in the NBA, but the net rating, which closely mirrors SRS’s, tells a fascinating story about the Celtics’ championship chances. Ten teams finished a season with a net rating above +10, and eight won the title. The only exceptions, again, are the 2015-16 Spurs and Warriors. The Celtics’ net rating of plus-11.4 is the fourth highest all-time, behind the 1995-96 and 1996-97 Chicago Bulls and the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors, three teams widely considered the best of NBA history. .
While achieving a net rating above plus-10 is an incredible indicator of championship upside, slipping to plus-10 and below, for teams in the SRS all-time top 20, has only produced Only one champion out of nine teams, the Celtics from 1985 to 1986.
Right now, the Celtics’ net rating is plus-11.4, but they still have 17 games left. It’s unlikely their net rating will drop to plus-10 or worse, but it’s a number worth keeping an eye on in the final month of the season. This won’t stop them from being the best team in the league or reduce their status as a championship favorite, but it might indicate that they aren’t as inevitable as they seem today.
The team-wide metrics all but crowned the Celtics 2023-24 champions. However, these Celtics differ significantly from their historically elite brethren. The 2023-24 Celtics don’t have the high-end talent that most elite teams employ, and that matters a lot.
A common principle you’ll hear is to never bet against the best player in a series. Basketball is a unique team sport because a single player can significantly change your chances, even against a superior opponent. While the Celtics have a roster filled with excellent players, the top of their roster falls short compared to other historically great teams in the regular season.
Among the six teams that finished a season with a net rating of plus-11 or higher, their best player’s Box Plus-Minus (BPM) averaged 9.2 and ranked at an average of 2.1 in the league. The lowest BPM of this group was Kevin Garnett’s 8.2 in 2007-08, ranking fourth for the season. The Celtics’ best 2023-24 player by BPM is Jayson Tatum with 5.2, which ranks 11th.
Even when we remove the threshold for elite team success, Tatum being the best player on a title team stands out. Over the last 10 champions, their best player’s average BPM was 8.4 with a median of 8.65. The only teams with a player with a BPM below 6.0 to win a title in the last decade are the 2013-14 San Antonio Spurs and the 2021-22 Golden State Warriors, who are not good proxies for these Celtics.
The Spurs and Warriors retained the aging core from their previous dynasty and supplemented it with younger players. While a young Kahwi Leonard led the 2013-14 Spurs in BPM at 5.1, he had the support of two-time MVP Tim Duncan, as well as Hall of Famers Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.
The 2021-22 Warriors were still led by Stephen Curry, who despite posting a 5.4 BPM that season, was coming off an 8.7 BPM season in 2020-21 and produced a 7.5 BPM the season after their championship. Jayson Tatum is a great player but hit a max BPM of 5.5, which is quite a notch below the usual best player in BPM on a champion.
The Celtics have built a truly unique juggernaut, and their front office should be applauded. No team in history has been this dominant in the regular season without one player carrying a much bigger load. Even though the Celtics lag behind in BPM produced by their best player, they compensate by being comfortably better in players two through five, compared to recent champions, and that doesn’t include Jaylen Brown, whose BPM hasn’t never seen with kindness.
The Celtics’ strongest link may be their weakest link, but the depth of their talent is unparalleled. The dispersion of production compares best to that of the 2013-14 Spurs, who were absolutely dominant and a great team to watch. It remains to be seen if these Celtics can build on the strength-in-numbers approach employed by the Spurs, but the model is there.
NBA history has taught us that there is no one championship formula, and these Celtics are trying to chart a new course for all to see. He’s a heavyweight without a singularly dominant player, which is something we’ve never seen at this level. The Celtics, as a collective, have all the hallmarks of a champion, but their lack of a transcendent individual would make them a championship anomaly.
Teams have punched above their best player’s weight, but these teams have never been by far the best team in the league, nor the championship favorites. The Celtics deserve to be the championship favorite, but their hold on the distinction is more tenuous than one might assume. In these playoffs, history is on the line for the Celtics, and we will see if the collective is ready to take on the challenge.
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