I consider myself a fair man.
I’m not the type to cheat or lie. I pay my taxes every year. If someone drops their wallet, I will try to locate them and return the lost item (without looking at the pocket of money).
So when I started putting this weekly article together and thinking about the results of the upcoming matches, it felt like the Prediction section was an abandoned portfolio.
To maintain my honor – and increase the difficulty – I modify the predictions to take the betting line into account. Instead of guessing the final score, I will indicate who will cover the spread for this game.
Have you seen the Raptors’ remaining schedule? 10 of the remaining 14 games will be against playoff or play-in teams. The other 4 games are against the Nets and the Wizards. With Toronto’s first game against Brooklyn, the Nets will still be within reach of a play-in spot. The second meeting will take place in Brooklyn, at the end of a back-to-back meeting. The same thing can be said (SEGABABA) about this week’s game against the Wizards.
March 20 vs. Sacramento Kings
The Kings are headed for another playoff season. They are currently locked in a three-way battle with Dallas and Phoenix for the coveted 6th playoff spot. I can’t stress this enough, but EVERYONE. NBA. FAN. should encourage Sacramento. A play-in tournament with the Mavericks and Suns (read: Doncic vs Booker again) fighting for 7th and Lakers and Warriors facing off in a do-or-die game would break all kinds of streaming records!
Back with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis is having a ridiculous season. In Monday’s overtime win over the Grizzlies, Sabonis notched his 50th (!) consecutive double-double. That ties him with Moses Malone for the third-longest streak in the last 50 years, behind Kevin Love (53) and Elvin Hayes (55). Given the Raptors’ depleted roster, especially early on, it’s safe to assume the streak won’t end in Toronto.
Last season, the Kings were the darlings of the league. Sacramento finished 3rd in the West and had the greatest offensive season (highest offensive rating) in league history. Skeptics weren’t sure if that success would translate into the playoffs, and Sacramento proved them right by losing in the first round to the Warriors.
This season, the Kings offense has become down to earth again (relatively speaking) and 5 teams will surpass their offensive scoring record! Not long ago, Sacramento was a potential landing spot for Pascal Siakam. Although they ultimately didn’t land Siakam, it’s obvious that Sacramento is missing a piece that will put them over the top.
For now, they remain one of the best League Pass teams to watch.
Since this is Sacramento’s only visit to Toronto, I wouldn’t be surprised if they gave a video tribute to the Kings’ only Canadian, Trey Lyles. However, I would love to see a video for Jordi Fernandez! What he has already done with the senior men’s team fully deserves the status of honorary Canadian.
Fun fact that can only interest me
Last season, Mike Brown joined Hubie Brown, Pat Riley and Don Nelson as the only coaches to win the Red Auerbach Trophy (Coach of the Year) in each conference. Mike’s was particularly notable because he became the first unanimous winner in the history of the prize! This is incredible considering a) the diversity of coaches who have won the award and b) the stiff competition for this award year after year.
Can the Kings give him an honorary jersey so Gradey Dick can make a trade?
Prediction
The extra day of rest available to the Raptors against the Kings did not work in Toronto’s favor. Adding to Toronto’s growing injury report list is the addition of Immanuel Quickley (personal reasons). Add IQ to the other 3 missing starters (Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, RJ Barrett) plus 2 reserves (Chris Boucher, DJ Carton).
The Kings have won 4 of their last 5 road games with impressive victories against the Nuggets (only 2nd road loss in regulation in 2024), Timberwolves, Clippers and Lakers.
Sacramento is a 9.5 favorite and that, frankly, should be much higher. Even though the Kings have only beaten the Raptors by double digits once (exactly 10 points on December 20, 2015) in the last 26 meetings, Toronto has never had a roster this decimated. Sacramento’s 4th ranked defense over the last 2 weeks keeps the Raptors at bay as the Kings cover the spread of 9.5.
March 22 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
By the time this game begins, approximately 75 percent of the first-round games in the men’s NCAA tournament will be completed. In other words, most of your brackets will have already broken, so you won’t have FOMO watching Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s only visit to Toronto (aside from Team Canada, of course).
It’s a shame that SGA’s remarkable season probably won’t end with an MVP trophy. He concocted, without hyperbole, the greatest NBA season of a Canadian! His win shares and VORP are higher than any Steve Nash season. SGA led the the youngest league team atop the Western Conference standings. This isn’t to spoil Nikola Jokic’s stunning campaign that will deservedly end with a third MVP award, but SGA’s season has been unforgettable!
Among the many things that should scare the league is the fact that SGA is only beginning to peak. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren just surpassed 200 career games… combined. Everyone except SGA and Lu Dort is either on a rookie contract or a cheap salary. In other words, the Thunder have space! Oh, and Sam Presti still has a treasure chest full of draft picks. This is the team to watch for many years to come!
Fun fact that can only interest me
The 2021 NBA Draft is taking shape as one of the deepest draft classes in recent memory. If I asked you who leads the 21 crop in average rebounds PLUS average assists, would your first guess be Scottie Barnes? With career averages of 7.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists, Barnes actually ranks second with 12.1 totals. Can you guess who ranks first?
Evan Mobley? Close. It’s at 11:8 a.m.
Alperen Sengun? Almost. It’s at 11:7am.
Cade Cunningham? No. It’s at 11:5 a.m.
With an average of 7.3 rebounds and 5.6 assists, for a total of 12.9, the distinction goes to Josh Giddey! The NBA record holder for youngest player to record a triple-double, Giddey is further proof of the Thunder’s incredible depth. He’s the 4th (!) option in OKC’s starting lineup!
Do you think he would be interested in a jersey swap with Gradey Dick?
Prediction
It didn’t take me long to find a flaw in this new approach. Bettors won’t post game spreads for more than a day, because there are simply too many variables at play. While I can’t accurately predict whether the Raptors can cover or not, I can always provide a breakdown final.
Toronto played valiantly at Oklahoma City last month, losing in double overtime to the Thunder. The outcome of this match will be very different. Jalen Williams was out for the Thunder, while the Raptors won’t have 5 or 6 of the 9 players who played in the first meeting.
If the spread for Sacramento is 9.5, the Thunder’s should be a little higher. Oklahoma City continues its exceptional campaign by covering the spread by 11.5 and winning by 15 points.
March 23 @ Wizards of Washington
Quick, name 5 Washington Wizards!
- Jordan Poole
- Bilal Coulibaly
- Deni Avdija
- Kyle Kuzma
- One of the Jones brothers
Washington has lost 20 of its last 22 games and has won just 5 games in 2024. Even though it ends this moribund season with 11 of 15 games at home, one has to wonder how much they will actually win…if they do applicable.
On Monday, Coulibaly was diagnosed with a broken wrist, ending his rookie campaign. Bilal was the only reason anyone would be interested in watching the Wizards play.
Remember what I wrote in the previous section about the NCAA tournament? Feel free to return to March Madness instead of watching a game that will accumulate the most “who is this guy” questions in a single broadcast!
Fun fact that can only interest me
What 3 years it’s been for Jordan Poole! During the 2021-22 season, Poole was nicknamed the “Third Splash Brother” as he led the league in free throws, while the Warriors won their 4th championship in 8 seasons.
His percentage, the best in the league in the charity category (92.48%), was particularly notable because of the amount (246) he won. Only 7 free throw champions have ever led the league in as high a percentage AND as many makes as Poole:
- Reggie Miller ’04-’05 — 93.28%, 250 FT
- Mark Price ’91-’92 — 94.74%, 270 FT
- Mark Price ’92-’93 — 94.75%, 289 FT
- Larry Bird ’89-’90 — 93.00%, 319 FT
- Reggie Miller ’00-’01 — 92.82%, 323 FT
- Bill Sharman ’58-’59 — 93.19%, 342 FT
- Peja Stojakovic ’03-’04 — 92.71%, 394 FT (60% more free throws made than Poole)
You haven’t been paying attention if you don’t know how I end this section. Can we get Jordan and Gradey to do a jersey swap?
Prediction
The Raptors can do themselves a favor and hand the victory to the Wizards. Toronto hasn’t been able to control much this season, but helping the Wizards “overtake” the Pistons in the standings would benefit the Raptors, who hold Detroit’s 2nd round seed.
Toronto is winless in 7 Saturday games this season. There’s no better chance than this for the first Saturday win of the year. The Wizards’ injury report appears to be as comprehensive as the Raptors’.
With Washington doing everything possible to finish with the worst record (and best lottery odds), this looks more like a Raptors win. Toronto covers the +1.5 spread by beating the Wizards by at least 5 points.
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