THE Toronto Raptors I could go from 25 wins to the playoffs this season, don’t miss out, don’t get $200.
Last season was a nightmare for the Raptors. A sluggish start prompted management to part ways with OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, and in the process, a series of injuries hampered this team’s ability to play competitive basketball. A record-breaking losing streak sent them into the depths of the lottery, putting them in position to simply trade a top-10 pick to the San Antonio Spurs in the Jakob Poeltl trade.
It seems reasonable to expect the Raptors improve next seasonif only because their roster will be healthier. Yet things could turn out in such a way that Toronto will not only be better, but so much better that they will overtake the teams around them in the Eastern Conference and earn a playoff spot.
The 2023-24 Toronto Raptors have undergone a surprising transformation, but have never been able to spread their wings as a new core. Of the rotation that opened the season, only Gary Trent Jr. was still available to play for the final two months of the season; everyone else was traded or injured. That included major injuries to Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl, as well as minor injuries and absences to nearly every other player on the roster.
Trent is the only player on the roster to have played more than 60 games, appearing in 71 last season. The roster failed to find a rhythm between the trade deadline and the end of the season, shuffling rosters and signing players off the street to play games that night. Once Barnes broke his hand on the first day of March, the Raptors couldn’t play the same five players for more than two games in a row the rest of the season.
If the Raptors are healthy, though, they should improve considerably. The four-man lineup of Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl played just 234 minutes together last year, but they had a net rating of +10.8 when they did play, by far the best on the team (minimum 100 minutes). throughout the leagueAmong the 4-man teams that played at least 225 minutes, the only non-playoff teams with stronger groupings were the Spurs (a Victor Wembanyama group) and the Warriors.
The Raptors’ core is also young, so it’s reasonable to expect growth from Quickley and Barnes. RJ Barrett is playing the best basketball of his career and is a candidate for Most Improved Player this year if he continues at this level of play. Gradey Dick should be better as a potential No. 5 starter, and additions like Davion Mitchell and Jamal Shead give Toronto more defensive options on the perimeter.
The Raptors look like a team that will win more than 25 games this season.
We recently wrote an article exploring why the Raptors might want unplug on the season if they get off to a slow start. One of the points we made was that there are so many teams that might want to get in a strong 2025 draft class, so if the Raptors wanted to put themselves in position, they would have to head down early.
The problem with that plan is that the rest of the Eastern Conference could get so bad, so quickly, that the Raptors won’t have a chance to beat anyone to finish at the bottom of the table. While they didn’t give it their all this summer, they also didn’t make any moves that would suggest they’ll do anything but try to win games next season. That makes them the outlier among the bottom half of the Eastern Conference.
The Washington Wizards were terrible last season and have shed several veterans this summer; they will almost certainly be the worst team in the league. They have stiff competition from the Brooklyn Nets who traded Mikal Bridges and appear to be stuck at the bottom of the standings. The Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets have made marginal additions to lottery teams.
Even the top-tier teams won’t necessarily be better than the Raptors next season. The Chicago Bulls traded Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan to a team that won just 39 games. The Atlanta Hawks moved on from Dejounte Murray and added the No. 1 overall pick and may not be fully committed to winning this season as they transition their roster.
It’s hard to imagine the Pistons, Wizards, Hornets or Nets being better than the Raptors next season; if Chicago or Atlanta stumble, or in the Bulls’ case try to be bad, the Raptors could overtake them simply because they’re not a functional NBA team.
Toronto appears to be on track for a spot in the play-in tournament next season, and they could get there even if they win just 35 games. The Hawks qualified last season with just 36 wins; by contrast, the 10th seed in the West was the Golden State Warriors, who won 46. The East’s good form could force the Raptors into the playoffs.
It’s not a terrible result, but it could also fool management into thinking they’ve made more progress than they have. Even if the Raptors take a big step forward and overtake the cars around them, they’re not ready to compete at the top of the conference. The Raptors need to be patient and build their team with a long-term vision in mind.
Even if they end up in the playoffs by default.
