From X…
Ranking the top 5 Heat players based on their rookie year (this could be done when the player plays the first 30 games so players like Niko can be included)
— ᥴꫝꫀᠻ𝕫ꪖꪗꪗ (@ZayyDubbs) August 19, 2024
As impressed as I was with Nikola Jovic at the end of last season, considering his first 61 games in a Miami Heat uniform, he still falls far short of ranking in the top five for best rookie seasons in franchise history.
In 61 NBA games, Jovic averaged 7.1 points on 44.3% shooting, 3.7 rebounds and 1.6 assists, with a career VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) of 0.4. He’s good, and I think last season may have set him up for an even bigger leap… but if we’re talking about the top five rookies in Heat history, he doesn’t quite make it.
Thanks to our friends at Stathead, here are the five best rookie seasons in Heat history according to VORP:
- Sherman Douglas, 1989-90 (2.1 VORP)
- Dwyane Wade, 2003-2004 (1.9)
- Caron Butler, 2002-03 (1.8)
- Khalid Reaves, 1994-95 (1.4)
- Mario Chalmers, 2008-2009 (1.0)
Bam Adebayo (0.6), Grant Long (0.5) and Josh Richardson (0.5) are the next five in rookie VORP rankings. Surprisingly, Jaime Jaquez Jr. ranked 22nd in VORP (0.1).
VORP isn’t everything, but it’s a good general metric that measures their overall impact. At first glance, I have a hard time putting anyone above D-Wade’s rookie season. After all, Wade helped the Heat to a surprising playoff berth and inspired Pat Riley to trade for Shaquille O’Neal a year after taking Wade with the fifth pick in the 2003 draft.
But look at Douglas’ rookie stats next to Wade’s:
Douglas: 14.3 points (49.4% FG%), 7.6 assists, 2.5 rebounds, 1.8 steals in 81 games
Wade: 16.2 points (46.5% FG%), 4.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 1.4 steals in 61 games
VORP takes into account playing time, and Douglas has played 344 more minutes than Wade. That, plus a better overall field goal percentage, gives Douglas the edge. Basketball-reference’s Box Plus-Minus (BPM) normalizes playing time, and by that measure, Douglas and Wade have a BPM of 1.4. This could be interpreted as Wade having a greater overall impact per minute.
But part of what makes a rookie season impressive is the length of play. Few rookies are guaranteed playing time, so just getting on the field is an accomplishment in itself.
As a child of the 90s and early 2000s, I’m not going to be the one to say that anyone had a better rookie season than Dwyane Wade, but the stats back up Sherman Douglas with a strong argument.
The next two are interesting: Butler and Reaves. Both came in (Butler as the 10th pick in the 2002 draft, Reaves as the 12th pick in the 1994 draft) and seemed like building blocks from the start.
Then both players were traded in franchise-defining deals. Butler was part of the 2004 deal that brought Shaquille O’Neal to Miami. And in Pat Riley’s first big trade, Reaves was traded for Alonzo Mourning after one season (along with Glen Rice, Matt Geiger and a first-round pick).
Even before checking the stats, there was no doubt that Mario Chalmers had one of the best rookie seasons in franchise history.
Chalmers became something of a joke during the Big 3 era, but it’s easy to forget that he started all 82 games as a rookie and averaged 10 points, 4.9 assists and 2.0 steals.
The Heat may have failed with Michael Beasley early in the 2008 draft, but they did succeed with their second-round pick with Chalmers. Even after the Heat cut their roster in the summer of 2010 to make room for LeBron James and Chris Bosh, Chalmers remained. He went on to win two championships in 2012 and 2013.
