Every week in the course of the 2024-25 NBA season, we’ll dig deeper into among the league’s greatest storylines to attempt to decide whether or not the developments are based mostly extra on truth or fiction.
[Last week: LeBron James’ Lakers are stuck in the middle]
Fiction or actuality: SGA is the perfect remaining participant within the NBA Cup
The NBA Cup subject is decreased to 4 groups. As a lot as we respect the gathering of expertise within the Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets – and they’re good groups (perhaps not good within the league however “may win the NBA Cup” effectively) – the query of who’s the perfect participant remaining within the match has two names.
Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder are the 2 favorites to win the NBA Cup MVP award, based on BetMGM. In addition they be a part of Luka Dončić of the Dallas Mavericks and Nikola Jokić of the Denver Nuggets as favorites to win the league’s common season MVP award.
Antetokounmpo is an institution famous person, a two-time MVP, chasing your third. The 30-year-old has been a top-four MVP candidate because the 2018-19 season, when Gilgeous-Alexander made his NBA debut. New to this dialog is Gilgeous-Alexander, runner-up to Jokić for final yr’s MVP award. Even having the dialogue, measuring Gilgeous-Alexander in opposition to Antetokounmpo, is a credit score to the 26-year-old’s rise.
However let’s speak about it now: who advantages from the higher season?
Historically, there isn’t a clear statistical distinction between the 2.
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Antetokounmpo (22 video games): 32.7 PTS (61/18/61), 11.4 REB, 6.0 AST (3.5 TB), 1.5 BLK, 0.6 STL
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Gilgeous-Alexander (24 video games): 30.2 PTS (52/34/86), 5.4 REB, 6.3 AST (2.7 TB), 1.8 STL, 1.0 BLK
The figures replicate their completely different types. Antetokounmpo is a wrecking ball, wreaking havoc on each ends of the courtroom. Gilgeous-Alexander is a carving knife, reducing lanes on either side of the ground and serving everybody.
If you wish to argue that Antetokounmpo’s rebounding makes the distinction right here, as does his size on protection, the place it may go unnoticed in field scoring, I am with you. I additionally suppose Gilgeous-Alexander’s three-tier scoring is simply as impactful, and he occurs to be the driving power of each an elite offense that commits the fewest turnovers per sport and a elite protection that forces essentially the most turnovers per sport. We’ll speak about this later.
If we’re nitpicking, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored or assisted 1,108 factors by way of his group’s first 24 video games. Antetokounmpo has scored or assisted on 1,076 factors. And if we undergo them our Defended Factors metricGilgeous-Alexander saved his group from 83 factors. Antetokounmpo saved his 58.
This represents a complete distinction of 57 factors in favor of Gilgeous-Alexander, sufficient to name into query Antetokounmpo’s two busy absences this season. (Gilgeous-Alexander has but to overlook a sport.)
As for superior statistics, we may argue all day about who leads who wherein class.
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Antetokounmpo: 31.5 PER, 63.0 TS%, 37.1 USG%, 3.8 WS, 8.6 BPM, 2.0 VORP
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Gilgeous-Alexander: 28.6 PER, 62.6 TS%, 33.2 USG%, 4.8 WS, 10.2 BPM, 2.6 VORP
For each superior metric wherein Gilgeous-Alexander leads Antetokounmpo, you could find one wherein Antetokounmpo leads Gilgeous-Alexander. When you ask my two favorites, Plus-Minus Estimate And Every day Plus-MinusGilgeous-Alexander leads each.
I am not going to lean by some means on this one. What I discover fascinating is that this: Gilgeous-Alexander has a considerably decrease utilization price than Antetokounmpo, however significantly larger win shares – the best within the league, actually. What does that say about their groups? And what do their groups say about every particular person’s affect?
Everybody understands that the Thunder (19-5) is a greater group. They lead a stacked Western Convention by 2.5 video games. The Bucks (13-11) are struggling to keep up a assured playoff spot within the weaker Jap Convention. Oklahoma Metropolis is outscoring its opponents by 12 factors per 100 possessions this season, a margin that might rank second in NBA historical past behind Michael Jordan’s 72 wins with the Chicago Bulls (13.4). Milwaukee’s web score (1.1) has solely climbed north of zero in current weeks, when it was in full swing with a light-weight schedule.
The Thunder are 11-5 in opposition to groups with profitable information. The Bucks are 3-8 in opposition to groups .500 or higher.
By extension, in such a detailed comparability, it ought to comply with that Gilgeous-Alexander’s teammates are higher than Antetokounmpo’s. And I feel that is true for essentially the most half. However we should not discredit Milwaukee.
Damian Lillard is an eight-time All-Star. Khris Middleton is a three-time All-Star who solely just lately returned to the rotation. Brook Lopez is a former All-Star who has persistently competed for All-Defensive recognition lately. AJ Inexperienced is a flamethrower. Bobby Portis completed third in final yr’s Sixth Man of the 12 months voting. Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright had been praised for his or her low salaries. Milwaukee has no scarcity of management expertise, though it’s largely acknowledged for its previous performances.
That is not the case in Oklahoma Metropolis, the place Jalen Williams is simply starting to comprehend his All-Star potential, as was Chet Holmgren earlier than a pelvic fracture. Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso and Lu Dort are All-Defensive caliber enhances. The Thunder’s flamethrower is Isaiah Joe. They’re loaded with developmental successes all through the roster, they usually have the capital to improve when and the place they need.
So it must also comply with that Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder are higher with out him than Antetokounmpo’s Bucks are with out him. And that is the place the wicket will get sticky. Oklahoma Metropolis is 12.9 factors higher per 100 significant possessions when its famous person is on the courtroom, based on Glass cleansing. Milwaukee is 4 factors higher per 100 possessions when its famous person is on the courtroom.
Antetokounmpo is a champion. Remember. He has a handful of his teammates within the league and traded one in every of his greatest for Lillard. We will debate the deserves to deal Jrue Vacation for Lillard, however by way of pedigree, the Bucks have him in spades. The tradition is on shaky floor, going by way of coaches, losers of three straight playoff collection, though accidents stands out as the trigger. Regardless, we all know who the Bucks are, losing away round Antetokounmpo, until the remainder of this match can change our minds.
Conversely, there isn’t a licensed future Corridor of Famer for Gilgeous-Alexander to share his burden. The Thunder discovers this for themselves in actual time and turns to him. Living proof: Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 51 % of the Thunder’s factors this season, not like Antetokounmpo, who scores 27 % of the Bucks’ factors when the rating is inside 5 factors within the remaining minutes of a sport.
We additionally know who Antetokounmpo is: a ram. He scores 79% of his factors both inside 3 ft or on the free throw line and prefers the previous. Opponents depart him open outdoors of the restricted space, the place he shoots 42 % on 8.3 makes an attempt per sport. That’s 0.86 factors per possession. You possibly can construct a wall in entrance of Antetokounmpo. He’ll discover his method, however you’ll be able to maintain him off lengthy sufficient to win.
That is why the Bucks chased Lilllard, to stability the ground in comparison with what Antetokounmpo’s wall had created. What was a top-five offense beneath former Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer has develop into a middling group in two of the final three seasons, together with this one, as opposing defenses have solved that conundrum .
I simply do not suppose we are able to decelerate Gilgeous-Alexander in the identical method, no less than not but. When you may, Williams would not be so good. Nor would Holmgren or anybody on the Thunder. As a result of Gilgeous-Alexander can rating in any respect ranges, the protection by no means leaves him free. They should maintain him from attending to the rim (the place he, too, shoots 73%), maintain him away from the midrange. And respect his 3-point leap shot.
The one technique to sluggish him down is to sluggish him down himself, which he’ll usually do, as a result of the sport is performed at his tempo. There is not any tactic he cannot remedy that does not contain a double group. Antetokounmpo and Gilgeous-Alexander will nonetheless be of their place; it is simply that Gilgeous-Alexander has extra locations to go.
Dedication: Do. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the perfect remaining participant within the NBA Cup.
