Spring was once christened in Minnesota by icicles dripping into cussed slush and debris-flecked mud as we ready to our a lot smaller tv units to observe March Insanity and fantasize concerning the newest collegiate hero donning a Minnesota Timberwolves uniform; realizing in our bones that if the lottery balls someway blessed this imaginative and prescient, that he, too, would slowly however absolutely sabotage the franchise’s newest rebuild.
you Christian Laettner … Rashad McCants … Jonny Flynn.
These days winter’s thaw marches forth earlier than the calendar can declare its time – we’d as nicely put up these cross-country skis after the All Star break. In the meantime, we now have already departed from one other early-spring custom by worrying much less about who the Wolves are going to draft than the place they are going to be seeded and what matchup they’ll draw within the NBA playoffs.
For the second stint of their 36-year historical past, the Wolves have actually develop into a crew different squads should perennially cope with to advance within the postseason. The primary run occurred through the halcyon seasons when Kevin Garnett was in his prime and the Wolves made the playoffs eight years in a row (1996 to 2004), lastly getting past the primary spherical on their eighth attempt.
It’s a near-certainty (the web site www.PlayoffStatus.com has the chances at greater than 98%) that the Wolves will end among the many high eight within the West this season, that means, worst-case state of affairs, they must lose two video games within the play-in to halt their present string of three straight seasons within the playoffs.
Take away KG’s eight-year Wolves playoff residency and the present three-year run of appearances, with the 2024-25 season but to be determined, and Minnesota has made the playoffs precisely as soon as in its different 24 seasons of operation – an eighth-seeded crew below coach Tom Thibodeau in 2017-18.
In different phrases, by the admittedly low (subterranean?) bar of prior achievement, these are days to be savored by Timberwolves followers. In fact the counter to that’s these 2024-25 Wolves boast the second-highest payroll within the NBA and are recent off a visit to the convention finals. All of it relies on your body of reference.
I’ve spent total columns – together with the one final week – ripping this present version of the Wolves for his or her seeming lack of character and paucity of belief and synergistic cohesion. Particularly in distinction to their impressively tattooed defensive identification and pervasively raucous goodwill from a 12 months in the past, their crystallization course of has fizzled greater than dazzled and as a work-in-progress there have been too many lunch breaks at occasions when urgency on the job was required.
With out denying any of that, there stays one other body of reference – respectable causes to be optimistic about this crew within the upcoming playoffs. Nothing is assured going ahead in fact. However in lieu of the cynical view, let’s placed on some rose-colored glasses for a minute. As a result of in some methods it improves the readability of the attention take a look at.
Postseason Ant
Within the first playoff recreation of Anthony Edwards’ profession, the then 20-year outdated, second-season professional scored 13 factors and doled out three assists in 9:43 of the primary quarter, ending with 36 factors and 6 dimes because the seventh-seeded Wolves upset the second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies.
It was a loud announcement that the precocious child who performs with nice pleasure additionally sports activities a psyche that responds positively to stress, that includes an additional reservoir of focus and ferocity that may be tapped when (and solely when?), a high-stakes, aggressive problem is within the offing.
Via the 27 playoff video games he has logged over the previous three years, encompassing 5 postseason sequence, Ant has ratified that he’s merely higher – at every thing – throughout this time of the 12 months. His play representing groups from the USA in worldwide tournaments add additional proof.
Evaluating that comparatively small however distinct pattern measurement towards his 372 common season video games exhibits Ant averaging greater than 4 factors per recreation (27.8 within the playoffs, 23.7 within the common season) on extra correct capturing from two-point territory (53.2% versus 50.4%), three-point vary (39.1% to 36.5%) and the free throw line (82.3% to 80.4%). He has extra rebounds, assists, steals and blocks per recreation within the postseason – however fewer turnovers.
Probably the most important flaws in Ant’s general recreation stem from an absence of sustained engagement, be it off-ball or transition protection or totally probing a protection for the appropriate shot choice or playmaking improvisation on offense. The highlight of playoff hoops largely get rid of these inattentive shortcuts. The upper capturing accuracy and higher assist-to-turnover ratio reveal that, however the improve in protection could also be much more pronounced.
Final however not least, this would be the first postseason the place Ant will get to point out off his improved long-range marksmanship, which is able to open the courtroom for extra artistic offense for him and his teammates. We’ve heard all concerning the “classes” he realized enjoying alongside a number of champions equivalent to Steph Curry, Lebron James and Kevin Durant. Subsequent month the rubber meets the highway on that feel-good rhetoric.
A rested and restive Mike Conley
Conley’s early-season troubles had been well-chronicled. A power wrist damage was aggravated within the offseason and preseason. The arrival of Julius Randle (and, to a lesser extent, Donte DiVincenzo) in buying and selling of Karl-Anthony Cities dislodged his primacy as the ground basic of the half-court offense; a job he’d held for almost all of his 17 NBA seasons. His two-point capturing was the least correct of his profession and, extra lately, groups had been looking him on protection, posting him up with bigger wings.
Put all of it collectively and Conley’s impression is at or close to a career-low, as he has averaged the fewest minutes, factors, free throws and field-goal makes an attempt per recreation of his profession, the bottom general utilization and the fewest assists per-game since he was traded from Memphis to Utah in 2019-20.
However after averaging lower than 40% capturing from each two-point and three-point territory within the 28 video games performed this season in calendar 12 months 2024, Conley has steadily elevated his recreation – most prominently on offense – to a spectacular stage that has largely gone unappreciated.
Whereas the two-point shot remained unreliable in January and February, he was lethal from distance, making 40-of-93 treys (43.1%) over 24 video games. On a crew chronically beset by turnovers, he offered extraordinary ballast, registering 130 assists versus simply 20 turnovers – greater than five-and-a half dimes for each miscue.
However the ten video games up to now in March have been peak Mike Conley. He changing a whopping 60% of his threes (21-for-35) and, lastly, supplementing it with a out of the blue dependable floater, making him extra of a risk is cuts to the rim off the ball. He’s 11-for-19, 57.9%, contained in the arc.
A few of this month’s resurgence has been as a result of return of Rudy Gobert after again spasms, stopping opponents from isolating Conley within the submit on protection and re-establishing the Conley-Gobert pick-and-roll that’s much less prevalent, however at all times probably potent, for the Wolves offense.
Backside line, Conley has adjusted to how sometimes he will get to captain the offense, ceding a number of that accountability to Ant and Randle. However his improved well being mixed with these changes have turned him into one thing of a secret weapon. Here’s a man who has made 43% of his three pointers within the two-and-a-half years he’s been with the Wolves (he’s as much as 41.8% this season regardless of his early woes), is aware of the right way to settle down a crew in stress conditions and does greater than his share by changing 91.1% of his free throws and proudly owning the perfect assist-to-turnover ratio on the crew.
He’s a battler on protection and never a legal responsibility with a rim protector behind him. The Wolves yield 108.6 factors per 100 possessions when he’s on the courtroom, decrease than the crew’s general mark of 110.6 factors allowed per 100 possessions. He has efficiently made himself helpful regardless of sacrificing a core a part of his identification on the courtroom.
And better of all, he’s hungry. Subsequent season he’ll full his Timberwolves contract, leaving his future doubtful. He has by no means received an NBA championship. In his usually sleek, understated approach, he’s keen to do no matter is critical to vary that.
The brand new versatility of Jaden McDaniels
The blossoming of McDaniels through the 2024-25 season in some methods resembles what occurred in Conley, in that the arrival of Randle initially restricted the scope of what McDaniels may do on offense (and was anticipated to do extra of, judging from my preseason interview with Coach Chris Finch earlier than the KAT commerce was made). Plans for him to create extra each on and off the ball by way of pick-and-rolls and cuts to the basket, had been cleaved and changed with a brand new burden of hitting the open catch-and-shoot threes that Randle is so adept at creating for his teammates by drawing defenders into submit.
Aside from one season, McDaniels has by no means been excellent capturing from distance and his confidence diminished alongside together with his accuracy. However, as I’ve written at higher size earlier than, the mix of sometimes taking him away from the taxing “wing stopper” position on protection and his personal need to broaden his offensive arsenal created power, motion and effectivity for the Wolves at each ends of the courtroom.
For the previous 30 video games or so, McDaniels has been a real combo ahead, capable of acquit the rebounding and rim defending duties of an influence ahead or the wing-stopping position of a small ahead. This higher flexibility can be useful for the Wolves in accordance with their playoff (and maybe play-in) matchups through the postseason.
However the actual dividend comes from McDaniels rising as a extra expansive scoring risk on offense. Within the chess match of a playoff sequence, a crew hopes to discover a appropriate non-scoring participant on the opposite facet to allow them to cover their offensive star who’s a defensive legal responsibility, or have their defensive ace “guard” that participant however truly roam and maximize disruption.
In earlier seasons, McDaniels was sometimes that non-scorer, particularly within the playoffs. Generally he was capable of burn the opponent by scoring. However his development this season makes that much more possible now, and thus makes his recreation a lot much less palatable an possibility for opponents hoping to basically guard the Wolves five-on-four-and-a-half.
(Hat tip to Jaylen Clark, who would be the topic of my And One e-newsletter content material, for offering succesful wing-stopper depth on opponents who could also be too massive for Nickeil Alexander-Walker and/or DiVincenzo.)
Success this season towards possible playoff opponents
Clearly the Wolves fitful efficiency this season has put them at a higher drawback than they had been a season in the past. In accordance with PlayoffStatus.com, which elements in energy of the remaining schedule, they’re more than likely to complete 7th within the Western Convention and thus should play the eighth place crew is a play-in, with the loser then compelled to play the winner of the ninth versus 10th place matchup for a ultimate playoff spot.
The percentages of seventh is 32%, however the second-best odds are that they climb into sixth (29%), thus avoiding the play-in and going through the third seed. Ending eighth is calibrated at 24% (all odds as of Wednesday morning in an ever-changing panorama), that means that there’s an 85% likelihood of Minnesota ending between sixth and eighth, with two-thirds of the opposite 15% going towards them ending fifth.
First off, meaning no likelihood of ending among the many high 4 – in contrast to final season, the Wolves will open the first-round sequence (offered they thrive in a play-in, if obligatory) on the highway.
That mentioned, the possible matchups are usually not that onerous for those who contemplate head-to-head play through the 2024-25 common season up to now. The more than likely seventh versus eighth place matchup is Wolves towards the Los Angeles Clippers and Minnesota is undefeated in three video games towards the Clips this season. The more than likely matchup if the Wolves end sixth is the Nuggets on the third seed, and the Wolves have additionally crushed Denver in all three conferences up to now this season. And if they arrive out of the play-in because the seventh or eighth seed, their more than likely matchups are one versus eight towards the top-seeded Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder and a two versus seven sequence towards the Houston Rockets. Clearly these are two excellent groups. However the Wolves have cut up their sequence 2-2, with each of them.
The potential playoff opponents which have the sting in head-to-head play versus Minnesota this season are Memphis, who has received each conferences up to now, and Golden State, which has taken three-of-four from the Wolves. However Memphis is more than likely to complete fourth or fifth, making a postseason assembly extremely unlikely for Minnesota, and if the Wolves play the Warriors it’s going to both be a play-in recreation or within the second spherical of the postseason.
None of that is set in stone, in fact. But when there’s a silver lining to the Wolves failing to take inferior opponents severely this season, it’s that they’ve compensated considerably by enjoying higher-caliber opponents harder. These are the opponents they’re more than likely to come across in about three weeks time.
The slate can be clear. And redemption for a comparatively lackluster season can be on the desk.
Britt Robson has lined the Timberwolves since 1990 for Metropolis Pages, The Rake, SportsIllustrated.com and The Athletic. He additionally has written about all types and types of music for over 30 years.
